Blog
How the model works, what it gets wrong, and what is coming next. Every claim here is backed by a living report in the project repository.
Where does Trevor Zegras belong? Part 3: the answer is that there isn't one
The performance split, pre-registered before it was run — and the arithmetic showing that 60% of the NHL's forwards fit inside our margin of error. One season cannot answer this, for anyone.
Where does Trevor Zegras belong? Part 2: does the job change?
Before asking whether he's better at centre, ask whether centre is a different job. Ice time, teammates, competition, zone starts, score state — and the control that turns a 10-point finding into half a point.
Where does Trevor Zegras belong? Part 1: where he actually played
Before you can ask whether he's better at centre, you have to know which nights he played there. The data didn't say — so we built it, game by game, and we're publishing every row.
Remember Some Guys
A new daily puzzle: name the skater from the shape of their career.
Model v2: putting the players back in
v1 was deliberately talent-blind. v2 gives the model shooters, goalies, and teammates — measures what that buys, and ends up scoring the site.
The talent-blind baseline
The model that scores every shot in the tables — its structure, the reasoning behind it, and its honest scorecard.