xJawn NHL expected goals

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Robert Thomas

C · St. Louis Blues · career →

17 GP · 253 min 5v5
2026-27 · 5v5
On the ice
Adjusts with rink filters
on-ice for◀ 5v5 offense
on-ice against5v5 defense ▶
How to read this map

One rink, both ends while Robert Thomas is on the ice: what the team generates on the left, what it concedes on the right. Every attempt is a Gaussian bump of height = its model xG, summed per 60 minutes of ice time (a player's exposure is time, not games). The controls switch the surface (xG heatmap ↔ vs league, the league baseline per team-hour at the same strength) and the markers: × goal · • on net · ◦ missed · small • blocked — and own shots narrows the left end's markers to attempts Robert Thomas took.

The page opens at 5v5; empty-net attempts are excluded throughout. On-ice membership comes from the shift charts; attempts without usable shift coverage are absent from both ends. Blocked-shot membership cannot be cross-checked against the play-by-play, so treat blocked-marker detail as softer than the rest.

Observed production

5v5 · on-ice · season to date
for against
axis spans ±235% of the forward cohort average · centre = average · right = more
Goalson-ice
10 68th pctl9 61st pctl
Shotson-ice
115 84th pctl105 79th pctl
Attemptson-ice
232 80th pctl233 85th pctl
xGon-ice
11.1 80th pctl9.2 67th pctl
xGF%share of on-ice xG
54.5%73rd pctl
0% 50% = even split · gray = cohort middle 50% / 90% 100%

Percentiles rank against the other forwards over the display floor at the selected strength — a non-strength filter (rush, period, …) moves the bars but keeps that strength's spread as the backdrop.

Rolling on-ice xGF%

5v5 · last 10 games
Per-game chance share while on the ice, smoothed. drag the slider to set the window
The model

Model estimates

🔒 as of Jun 14, 2026
Last season's ratings and goals accounting (2025-26) — 2026-27 is not rated until it has enough games to refit. The observed rows above are 2026-27.
creating   preventing   creates both  ·  paler = special teams  ·  solid = on-ice RAPM · hatched = skill rating  ·  ▽ = the total
Shooting
Conversionall shooter stages
outside the PP +1.11 goals vs average
+1.1976th pctl
Offense
On-ice impactRAPM · xGF impact
+4.7093rd pctl
Defense
On-ice impactRAPM · xGA, flipped
+2.0288th pctl
BlockingBlocking · season-resolved
-0.182nd pctl
Special teams
Power playST RAPM · 3-season window
+1.1092nd pctl
Penalty killST RAPM · season-resolved
-0.2014th pctl
Disciplinedrawn − taken
-0.1528th pctl
GAAgoals above average, this season
Offense impact +4.70 goals vs averageDefense impact +2.02 goals vs averageBlocking -0.18 goals vs averageConversion · outside the PP +1.11 goals vs averagePower play +1.10 goals vs averagePenalty kill -0.20 goals vs averageDiscipline -0.15 goals vs average
+8.4993rd pctl
grouped by game state · 5v5 → power play → kill
−18.960 = league average+18.96

Ranked against forwards; the band behind each bar is that cohort's spread (p5–p95, middle half brighter, dashed median), so where a bar lands against its band is the rank — the ordinal beside it makes that exact. Zero is whichever baseline the toggle selects — the league-average skater, or replacement level — and every row, its band and its ordinal are all drawn against that one baseline, so the bar and the number can never describe different things. Each row's bar grows from zero, so its end IS its value; the composite is the rows stacked, running both ways from zero, so only it carries a ▽ to mark the net. The rows sum to the total with nothing left over. The per-shot rating is quality only: it says nothing about how many attempts a player generates or faces, which is what the attempts figure is for.

Faceoff skill

🔒 as of Jun 14, 2026
Faceoff skillfitted rating · not in GAA/GAR
56.5%75th pctl
A per-draw skill rating from the faceoff model, shown as the win probability against a league-average taker on a neutral dot. It is not priced in goals and is not part of GAA or GAR: the value of a won draw is shared by everyone on the ice, so this stays a rating.
−0.690 = an average taker+0.69
Context

Usage & context

season to date
The job the coach handed Robert Thomas, not how well it went. Not a modeled component: each is its own metric (minutes, a rate, a TOI share, or opponents'/teammates' net xG-RAPM), shown with a cohort percentile only where one exists, never added together. Not a grade. The deployment rows are measured over the same 5v5 stints the isolate is fit on (regular season + playoffs); ice time and the penalty rates are all situations, every game — penalties create non-5v5 time, so a 5v5 denominator would inflate every rate.
Time on iceall situations · min per game
20:28per game
Penalties takenminor penalties / 60
0.86per 60 · all situations
Penalties drawnminor penalties / 60
0.17per 60 · all situations
Zone startsOZS% · O-zone start share
49%offensive / (off + def)
Score stateTOI by game state
trail 43%tied 27%lead 30%
trails a lot
Competition (QoC)opponents' net xG-RAPM
+0.048xG/60
Teammates (QoT)teammates' net xG-RAPM
+0.019xG/60
On-the-flyshare of 5v5 TOI
61%of 5v5 TOI
0cohort average100 pctl

A skater absent from the fit counts as exactly cohort average (0) in QoC/QoT — the same claim ridge shrinkage makes. Penalty rates are descriptive only: taken-rate includes defensively correct penalties, and neither side is opponent- or deployment-adjusted. Nothing here is priced in goals.

Full table · all numbers
FamilyStatValue (current slice)
Observed ◆ filtered Goals on-ice for / against 10 / 9
Observed ◆ filtered xG on-ice for / against 11.1 / 9.2
Observed ◆ filtered Shots on-ice for / against 115 / 105
Observed ◆ filtered Attempts on-ice for / against 232 / 233
Observed ◆ filteredxGF% 54.5%
Modeled 🔒 season Conversion — all shooter stages +1.19 76th pctl
Modeled 🔒 season ↳ Conversion — 145 outside the PP 41st pctl
Modeled 🔒 season ↳ Conversion — 37 on the PP 58th pctl
Modeled 🔒 season ↳ Conversion — per-shot skill 94th pctl
Modeled 🔒 season On-ice impact — RAPM · xGF impact +4.70 93rd pctl
Modeled 🔒 season On-ice impact — RAPM · xGA, flipped +2.02 88th pctl
Modeled 🔒 season Blocking — Blocking · season-resolved -0.18 2nd pctl
Modeled 🔒 season ↳ Blocking — 1,083 attempts faced 61st pctl
Modeled 🔒 season ↳ Blocking — per-shot suppression 1st pctl
Modeled 🔒 season Power play — ST RAPM · 3-season window +1.10 92nd pctl
Modeled 🔒 season Penalty kill — ST RAPM · season-resolved -0.20 14th pctl
Modeled 🔒 season Discipline — drawn − taken -0.15 28th pctl
Modeled 🔒 season GAA +8.49 93rd pctl
ContextTime on ice — all situations · min per game 20:28 (95th pctl)
ContextPenalties taken — minor penalties / 60 0.86 (63rd pctl)
ContextPenalties drawn — minor penalties / 60 0.17 (6th pctl)
ContextZone starts — OZS% · O-zone start share 49% (44th pctl)
ContextScore state — TOI by game state trail 43%, tied 27%, lead 30%
ContextCompetition (QoC) — opponents' net xG-RAPM +0.048 (92nd pctl)
ContextTeammates (QoT) — teammates' net xG-RAPM +0.019 (61st pctl)
ContextOn-the-fly — share of 5v5 TOI 61%

Observed values reflect the active rink filters; modeled values are fixed at their full-season fit.

On-ice numbers pair the regular-season shot set with shift-chart membership; skaters and goalies under the display floors are fit but not shown. Modeled rows come from the value artifact keyed to RAPM fit rapm__0cd6d075 on nested_structure__nested_structure_xg__d2ec2662 (the joint-xg structural baseline), with ratings from joint__baseline_xg__f3e3111e (as of 2026-06-14) — separate surfaces from the box-score xG model badged in the footer.