xJawn NHL expected goals

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Martin Fehervary

D · Washington Capitals · career →

15 GP · 253 min 5v5
2026-27 · 5v5
On the ice
Adjusts with rink filters
on-ice for◀ 5v5 offense
on-ice against5v5 defense ▶
How to read this map

One rink, both ends while Martin Fehervary is on the ice: what the team generates on the left, what it concedes on the right. Every attempt is a Gaussian bump of height = its model xG, summed per 60 minutes of ice time (a player's exposure is time, not games). The controls switch the surface (xG heatmap ↔ vs league, the league baseline per team-hour at the same strength) and the markers: × goal · • on net · ◦ missed · small • blocked — and own shots narrows the left end's markers to attempts Martin Fehervary took.

The page opens at 5v5; empty-net attempts are excluded throughout. On-ice membership comes from the shift charts; attempts without usable shift coverage are absent from both ends. Blocked-shot membership cannot be cross-checked against the play-by-play, so treat blocked-marker detail as softer than the rest.

Observed production

5v5 · on-ice · season to date
for against
axis spans ±241% of the defenseman cohort average · centre = average · right = more
Goalson-ice
10 56th pctl12 69th pctl
Shotson-ice
106 49th pctl117 58th pctl
Attemptson-ice
208 42nd pctl253 61st pctl
xGon-ice
11.8 68th pctl9.6 43rd pctl
xGF%share of on-ice xG
55.1%75th pctl
0% 50% = even split · gray = cohort middle 50% / 90% 100%

Percentiles rank against the other defensemen over the display floor at the selected strength — a non-strength filter (rush, period, …) moves the bars but keeps that strength's spread as the backdrop.

Rolling on-ice xGF%

5v5 · last 10 games
Per-game chance share while on the ice, smoothed. drag the slider to set the window
The model

Model estimates

🔒 as of Jun 14, 2026
Last season's ratings and goals accounting (2025-26) — 2026-27 is not rated until it has enough games to refit. The observed rows above are 2026-27.
creating   preventing   creates both  ·  paler = special teams  ·  solid = on-ice RAPM · hatched = skill rating  ·  ▽ = the total
Shooting
Conversionall shooter stages
outside the PP +0.34 goals vs average
+0.3490th pctl
Offense
On-ice impactRAPM · xGF impact
-1.1139th pctl
Defense
On-ice impactRAPM · xGA, flipped
-1.7516th pctl
BlockingBlocking · season-resolved
+0.3492nd pctl
Special teams
Power playST RAPM · 3-season window
-0.0739th pctl
Penalty killST RAPM · season-resolved
+0.0147th pctl
Disciplinedrawn − taken
-0.0973rd pctl
GAAgoals above average, this season
Offense impact -1.11 goals vs averageDefense impact -1.75 goals vs averageBlocking +0.34 goals vs averageConversion · outside the PP +0.34 goals vs averageDiscipline -0.09 goals vs average
-2.3438th pctl
grouped by game state · 5v5 → power play → kill
−18.960 = league average+18.96

Ranked against defensemen; the band behind each bar is that cohort's spread (p5–p95, middle half brighter, dashed median), so where a bar lands against its band is the rank — the ordinal beside it makes that exact. Zero is whichever baseline the toggle selects — the league-average skater, or replacement level — and every row, its band and its ordinal are all drawn against that one baseline, so the bar and the number can never describe different things. Each row's bar grows from zero, so its end IS its value; the composite is the rows stacked, running both ways from zero, so only it carries a ▽ to mark the net. The rows sum to the total with nothing left over. The per-shot rating is quality only: it says nothing about how many attempts a player generates or faces, which is what the attempts figure is for.

Context

Usage & context

season to date
The job the coach handed Martin Fehervary, not how well it went. Not a modeled component: each is its own metric (minutes, a rate, a TOI share, or opponents'/teammates' net xG-RAPM), shown with a cohort percentile only where one exists, never added together. Not a grade. The deployment rows are measured over the same 5v5 stints the isolate is fit on (regular season + playoffs); ice time and the penalty rates are all situations, every game — penalties create non-5v5 time, so a 5v5 denominator would inflate every rate.
Time on iceall situations · min per game
21:35per game
Penalties takenminor penalties / 60
0.74per 60 · all situations
Penalties drawnminor penalties / 60
0.37per 60 · all situations
Zone startsOZS% · O-zone start share
33%offensive / (off + def)
Score stateTOI by game state
trail 27%tied 36%lead 37%
leads a lot
Competition (QoC)opponents' net xG-RAPM
+0.059xG/60
Teammates (QoT)teammates' net xG-RAPM
+0.026xG/60
On-the-flyshare of 5v5 TOI
62%of 5v5 TOI
0cohort average100 pctl

A skater absent from the fit counts as exactly cohort average (0) in QoC/QoT — the same claim ridge shrinkage makes. Penalty rates are descriptive only: taken-rate includes defensively correct penalties, and neither side is opponent- or deployment-adjusted. Nothing here is priced in goals.

Full table · all numbers
FamilyStatValue (current slice)
Observed ◆ filtered Goals on-ice for / against 10 / 12
Observed ◆ filtered xG on-ice for / against 11.8 / 9.6
Observed ◆ filtered Shots on-ice for / against 106 / 117
Observed ◆ filtered Attempts on-ice for / against 208 / 253
Observed ◆ filteredxGF% 55.1%
Modeled 🔒 season Conversion — all shooter stages +0.34 90th pctl
Modeled 🔒 season ↳ Conversion — 163 outside the PP 46th pctl
Modeled 🔒 season ↳ Conversion — 0 on the PP 15th pctl
Modeled 🔒 season ↳ Conversion — per-shot skill 91st pctl
Modeled 🔒 season On-ice impact — RAPM · xGF impact -1.11 39th pctl
Modeled 🔒 season On-ice impact — RAPM · xGA, flipped -1.75 16th pctl
Modeled 🔒 season Blocking — Blocking · season-resolved +0.34 92nd pctl
Modeled 🔒 season ↳ Blocking — 1,842 attempts faced 88th pctl
Modeled 🔒 season ↳ Blocking — per-shot suppression 95th pctl
Modeled 🔒 season Power play — ST RAPM · 3-season window -0.07 39th pctl
Modeled 🔒 season Penalty kill — ST RAPM · season-resolved +0.01 47th pctl
Modeled 🔒 season Discipline — drawn − taken -0.09 73rd pctl
Modeled 🔒 season GAA -2.34 38th pctl
ContextTime on ice — all situations · min per game 21:35 (79th pctl)
ContextPenalties taken — minor penalties / 60 0.74 (51st pctl)
ContextPenalties drawn — minor penalties / 60 0.37 (41st pctl)
ContextZone starts — OZS% · O-zone start share 33% (7th pctl)
ContextScore state — TOI by game state trail 27%, tied 36%, lead 37%
ContextCompetition (QoC) — opponents' net xG-RAPM +0.059 (98th pctl)
ContextTeammates (QoT) — teammates' net xG-RAPM +0.026 (53rd pctl)
ContextOn-the-fly — share of 5v5 TOI 62%

Observed values reflect the active rink filters; modeled values are fixed at their full-season fit.

On-ice numbers pair the regular-season shot set with shift-chart membership; skaters and goalies under the display floors are fit but not shown. Modeled rows come from the value artifact keyed to RAPM fit rapm__0cd6d075 on nested_structure__nested_structure_xg__d2ec2662 (the joint-xg structural baseline), with ratings from joint__baseline_xg__f3e3111e (as of 2026-06-14) — separate surfaces from the box-score xG model badged in the footer.