xJawn NHL expected goals

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Marco Rossi

C · Vancouver Canucks · career →

17 GP · 209 min 5v5
2026-27 · 5v5
On the ice
Adjusts with rink filters
on-ice for◀ 5v5 offense
on-ice against5v5 defense ▶
How to read this map

One rink, both ends while Marco Rossi is on the ice: what the team generates on the left, what it concedes on the right. Every attempt is a Gaussian bump of height = its model xG, summed per 60 minutes of ice time (a player's exposure is time, not games). The controls switch the surface (xG heatmap ↔ vs league, the league baseline per team-hour at the same strength) and the markers: × goal · • on net · ◦ missed · small • blocked — and own shots narrows the left end's markers to attempts Marco Rossi took.

The page opens at 5v5; empty-net attempts are excluded throughout. On-ice membership comes from the shift charts; attempts without usable shift coverage are absent from both ends. Blocked-shot membership cannot be cross-checked against the play-by-play, so treat blocked-marker detail as softer than the rest.

Observed production

5v5 · on-ice · season to date
for against
axis spans ±235% of the forward cohort average · centre = average · right = more
Goalson-ice
7 42nd pctl11 79th pctl
Shotson-ice
75 37th pctl98 69th pctl
Attemptson-ice
158 33rd pctl188 51st pctl
xGon-ice
6.3 28th pctl10.0 76th pctl
xGF%share of on-ice xG
38.8%10th pctl
0% 50% = even split · gray = cohort middle 50% / 90% 100%

Percentiles rank against the other forwards over the display floor at the selected strength — a non-strength filter (rush, period, …) moves the bars but keeps that strength's spread as the backdrop.

Rolling on-ice xGF%

5v5 · last 10 games
Per-game chance share while on the ice, smoothed. drag the slider to set the window
The model

Model estimates

🔒 as of Jun 14, 2026
Last season's ratings and goals accounting (2025-26) — 2026-27 is not rated until it has enough games to refit. The observed rows above are 2026-27.
creating   preventing   creates both  ·  paler = special teams  ·  solid = on-ice RAPM · hatched = skill rating  ·  ▽ = the total
Shooting
Conversionall shooter stages
outside the PP +0.73 goals vs average
+0.7673rd pctl
Offense
On-ice impactRAPM · xGF impact
-0.9127th pctl
Defense
On-ice impactRAPM · xGA, flipped
-2.3112th pctl
Special teams
Power playST RAPM · 3-season window
-0.737th pctl
Penalty killST RAPM · season-resolved
-0.1416th pctl
Disciplinedrawn − taken
+0.9470th pctl
GAAgoals above average, this season
Offense impact -0.91 goals vs averageDefense impact -2.31 goals vs averageConversion · outside the PP +0.73 goals vs averagePower play -0.73 goals vs averagePenalty kill -0.14 goals vs averageDiscipline +0.94 goals vs average
-2.3521st pctl
grouped by game state · 5v5 → power play → kill
Not shown — Blocking +0.04 — included in the total.
−18.960 = league average+18.96

Ranked against forwards; the band behind each bar is that cohort's spread (p5–p95, middle half brighter, dashed median), so where a bar lands against its band is the rank — the ordinal beside it makes that exact. Zero is whichever baseline the toggle selects — the league-average skater, or replacement level — and every row, its band and its ordinal are all drawn against that one baseline, so the bar and the number can never describe different things. Each row's bar grows from zero, so its end IS its value; the composite is the rows stacked, running both ways from zero, so only it carries a ▽ to mark the net. The rows sum to the total with nothing left over. The per-shot rating is quality only: it says nothing about how many attempts a player generates or faces, which is what the attempts figure is for.

Faceoff skill

🔒 as of Jun 14, 2026
Faceoff skillfitted rating · not in GAA/GAR
52.4%43rd pctl
A per-draw skill rating from the faceoff model, shown as the win probability against a league-average taker on a neutral dot. It is not priced in goals and is not part of GAA or GAR: the value of a won draw is shared by everyone on the ice, so this stays a rating.
−0.690 = an average taker+0.69
Context

Usage & context

season to date
The job the coach handed Marco Rossi, not how well it went. Not a modeled component: each is its own metric (minutes, a rate, a TOI share, or opponents'/teammates' net xG-RAPM), shown with a cohort percentile only where one exists, never added together. Not a grade. The deployment rows are measured over the same 5v5 stints the isolate is fit on (regular season + playoffs); ice time and the penalty rates are all situations, every game — penalties create non-5v5 time, so a 5v5 denominator would inflate every rate.
Time on iceall situations · min per game
15:33per game
Penalties takenminor penalties / 60
0.68per 60 · all situations
Penalties drawnminor penalties / 60
0.68per 60 · all situations
Zone startsOZS% · O-zone start share
41%offensive / (off + def)
Score stateTOI by game state
trail 62%tied 24%lead 14%
trails a lot
Competition (QoC)opponents' net xG-RAPM
+0.016xG/60
Teammates (QoT)teammates' net xG-RAPM
-0.214xG/60
On-the-flyshare of 5v5 TOI
73%of 5v5 TOI
0cohort average100 pctl

A skater absent from the fit counts as exactly cohort average (0) in QoC/QoT — the same claim ridge shrinkage makes. Penalty rates are descriptive only: taken-rate includes defensively correct penalties, and neither side is opponent- or deployment-adjusted. Nothing here is priced in goals.

Full table · all numbers
FamilyStatValue (current slice)
Observed ◆ filtered Goals on-ice for / against 7 / 11
Observed ◆ filtered xG on-ice for / against 6.3 / 10.0
Observed ◆ filtered Shots on-ice for / against 75 / 98
Observed ◆ filtered Attempts on-ice for / against 158 / 188
Observed ◆ filteredxGF% 38.8%
Modeled 🔒 season Conversion — all shooter stages +0.76 73rd pctl
Modeled 🔒 season ↳ Conversion — 98 outside the PP 24th pctl
Modeled 🔒 season ↳ Conversion — 29 on the PP 53rd pctl
Modeled 🔒 season ↳ Conversion — per-shot skill 93rd pctl
Modeled 🔒 season On-ice impact — RAPM · xGF impact -0.91 27th pctl
Modeled 🔒 season On-ice impact — RAPM · xGA, flipped -2.31 12th pctl
Modeled 🔒 season Power play — ST RAPM · 3-season window -0.73 7th pctl
Modeled 🔒 season Penalty kill — ST RAPM · season-resolved -0.14 16th pctl
Modeled 🔒 season Discipline — drawn − taken +0.94 70th pctl
Modeled 🔒 season GAA -2.35 21st pctl
ContextTime on ice — all situations · min per game 15:33 (55th pctl)
ContextPenalties taken — minor penalties / 60 0.68 (51st pctl)
ContextPenalties drawn — minor penalties / 60 0.68 (39th pctl)
ContextZone starts — OZS% · O-zone start share 41% (22nd pctl)
ContextScore state — TOI by game state trail 62%, tied 24%, lead 14%
ContextCompetition (QoC) — opponents' net xG-RAPM +0.016 (55th pctl)
ContextTeammates (QoT) — teammates' net xG-RAPM -0.214 (1st pctl)
ContextOn-the-fly — share of 5v5 TOI 73%

Observed values reflect the active rink filters; modeled values are fixed at their full-season fit.

On-ice numbers pair the regular-season shot set with shift-chart membership; skaters and goalies under the display floors are fit but not shown. Modeled rows come from the value artifact keyed to RAPM fit rapm__0cd6d075 on nested_structure__nested_structure_xg__d2ec2662 (the joint-xg structural baseline), with ratings from joint__baseline_xg__f3e3111e (as of 2026-06-14) — separate surfaces from the box-score xG model badged in the footer.