xJawn NHL expected goals

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Tim Stützle

C · Ottawa Senators · career →

18 GP · 246 min 5v5
2026-27 · 5v5
On the ice
Adjusts with rink filters
on-ice for◀ 5v5 offense
on-ice against5v5 defense ▶
How to read this map

One rink, both ends while Tim Stützle is on the ice: what the team generates on the left, what it concedes on the right. Every attempt is a Gaussian bump of height = its model xG, summed per 60 minutes of ice time (a player's exposure is time, not games). The controls switch the surface (xG heatmap ↔ vs league, the league baseline per team-hour at the same strength) and the markers: × goal · • on net · ◦ missed · small • blocked — and own shots narrows the left end's markers to attempts Tim Stützle took.

The page opens at 5v5; empty-net attempts are excluded throughout. On-ice membership comes from the shift charts; attempts without usable shift coverage are absent from both ends. Blocked-shot membership cannot be cross-checked against the play-by-play, so treat blocked-marker detail as softer than the rest.

Observed production

5v5 · on-ice · season to date
for against
axis spans ±235% of the forward cohort average · centre = average · right = more
Goalson-ice
16 95th pctl7 40th pctl
Shotson-ice
111 80th pctl95 64th pctl
Attemptson-ice
213 71st pctl221 78th pctl
xGon-ice
11.0 79th pctl8.4 52nd pctl
xGF%share of on-ice xG
56.8%83rd pctl
0% 50% = even split · gray = cohort middle 50% / 90% 100%

Percentiles rank against the other forwards over the display floor at the selected strength — a non-strength filter (rush, period, …) moves the bars but keeps that strength's spread as the backdrop.

Rolling on-ice xGF%

5v5 · last 10 games
Per-game chance share while on the ice, smoothed. drag the slider to set the window
The model

Model estimates

🔒 as of Jun 14, 2026
Last season's ratings and goals accounting (2025-26) — 2026-27 is not rated until it has enough games to refit. The observed rows above are 2026-27.
creating   preventing   creates both  ·  paler = special teams  ·  solid = on-ice RAPM · hatched = skill rating  ·  ▽ = the total
Shooting
Conversionall shooter stages
outside the PP +0.31 goals vs averagepower play -0.32 goals vs average
-0.0156th pctl
Offense
On-ice impactRAPM · xGF impact
+1.2869th pctl
Defense
On-ice impactRAPM · xGA, flipped
-4.013rd pctl
BlockingBlocking · season-resolved
-0.173rd pctl
Special teams
Power playST RAPM · 3-season window
-0.1827th pctl
Penalty killST RAPM · season-resolved
+0.3683rd pctl
Disciplinedrawn − taken
+3.1899th pctl
GAAgoals above average, this season
Offense impact +1.28 goals vs averageDefense impact -4.01 goals vs averageBlocking -0.17 goals vs averageConversion · outside the PP +0.31 goals vs averagePower play -0.18 goals vs averageConversion · power play -0.32 goals vs averagePenalty kill +0.36 goals vs averageDiscipline +3.18 goals vs average
+0.4552nd pctl
grouped by game state · 5v5 → power play → kill
−18.960 = league average+18.96

Ranked against forwards; the band behind each bar is that cohort's spread (p5–p95, middle half brighter, dashed median), so where a bar lands against its band is the rank — the ordinal beside it makes that exact. Zero is whichever baseline the toggle selects — the league-average skater, or replacement level — and every row, its band and its ordinal are all drawn against that one baseline, so the bar and the number can never describe different things. Each row's bar grows from zero, so its end IS its value; the composite is the rows stacked, running both ways from zero, so only it carries a ▽ to mark the net. The rows sum to the total with nothing left over. The per-shot rating is quality only: it says nothing about how many attempts a player generates or faces, which is what the attempts figure is for.

Faceoff skill

🔒 as of Jun 14, 2026
Faceoff skillfitted rating · not in GAA/GAR
54.7%62nd pctl
A per-draw skill rating from the faceoff model, shown as the win probability against a league-average taker on a neutral dot. It is not priced in goals and is not part of GAA or GAR: the value of a won draw is shared by everyone on the ice, so this stays a rating.
−0.690 = an average taker+0.69
Context

Usage & context

season to date
The job the coach handed Tim Stützle, not how well it went. Not a modeled component: each is its own metric (minutes, a rate, a TOI share, or opponents'/teammates' net xG-RAPM), shown with a cohort percentile only where one exists, never added together. Not a grade. The deployment rows are measured over the same 5v5 stints the isolate is fit on (regular season + playoffs); ice time and the penalty rates are all situations, every game — penalties create non-5v5 time, so a 5v5 denominator would inflate every rate.
Time on iceall situations · min per game
21:46per game
Penalties takenminor penalties / 60
0.46per 60 · all situations
Penalties drawnminor penalties / 60
1.37per 60 · all situations
Zone startsOZS% · O-zone start share
61%offensive / (off + def)
Score stateTOI by game state
trail 27%tied 47%lead 26%
often tied
Competition (QoC)opponents' net xG-RAPM
+0.015xG/60
Teammates (QoT)teammates' net xG-RAPM
+0.067xG/60
On-the-flyshare of 5v5 TOI
70%of 5v5 TOI
0cohort average100 pctl

A skater absent from the fit counts as exactly cohort average (0) in QoC/QoT — the same claim ridge shrinkage makes. Penalty rates are descriptive only: taken-rate includes defensively correct penalties, and neither side is opponent- or deployment-adjusted. Nothing here is priced in goals.

Full table · all numbers
FamilyStatValue (current slice)
Observed ◆ filtered Goals on-ice for / against 16 / 7
Observed ◆ filtered xG on-ice for / against 11.0 / 8.4
Observed ◆ filtered Shots on-ice for / against 111 / 95
Observed ◆ filtered Attempts on-ice for / against 213 / 221
Observed ◆ filteredxGF% 56.8%
Modeled 🔒 season Conversion — all shooter stages -0.01 56th pctl
Modeled 🔒 season ↳ Conversion — 241 outside the PP 77th pctl
Modeled 🔒 season ↳ Conversion — 98 on the PP 86th pctl
Modeled 🔒 season ↳ Conversion — per-shot skill 79th pctl
Modeled 🔒 season On-ice impact — RAPM · xGF impact +1.28 69th pctl
Modeled 🔒 season On-ice impact — RAPM · xGA, flipped -4.01 3rd pctl
Modeled 🔒 season Blocking — Blocking · season-resolved -0.17 3rd pctl
Modeled 🔒 season ↳ Blocking — 1,306 attempts faced 84th pctl
Modeled 🔒 season ↳ Blocking — per-shot suppression 1st pctl
Modeled 🔒 season Power play — ST RAPM · 3-season window -0.18 27th pctl
Modeled 🔒 season Penalty kill — ST RAPM · season-resolved +0.36 83rd pctl
Modeled 🔒 season Discipline — drawn − taken +3.18 99th pctl
Modeled 🔒 season GAA +0.45 52nd pctl
ContextTime on ice — all situations · min per game 21:46 (99th pctl)
ContextPenalties taken — minor penalties / 60 0.46 (32nd pctl)
ContextPenalties drawn — minor penalties / 60 1.37 (82nd pctl)
ContextZone starts — OZS% · O-zone start share 61% (83rd pctl)
ContextScore state — TOI by game state trail 27%, tied 47%, lead 26%
ContextCompetition (QoC) — opponents' net xG-RAPM +0.015 (54th pctl)
ContextTeammates (QoT) — teammates' net xG-RAPM +0.067 (84th pctl)
ContextOn-the-fly — share of 5v5 TOI 70%

Observed values reflect the active rink filters; modeled values are fixed at their full-season fit.

On-ice numbers pair the regular-season shot set with shift-chart membership; skaters and goalies under the display floors are fit but not shown. Modeled rows come from the value artifact keyed to RAPM fit rapm__0cd6d075 on nested_structure__nested_structure_xg__d2ec2662 (the joint-xg structural baseline), with ratings from joint__baseline_xg__f3e3111e (as of 2026-06-14) — separate surfaces from the box-score xG model badged in the footer.