xJawn NHL expected goals

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Brandon Bussi

G · Carolina Hurricanes

7 GP · 318 min 5v5
2026-27 · 5v5
On the ice
Adjusts with rink filters
on-ice for◀ 5v5 offense
on-ice against5v5 defense ▶
How to read this map

One rink, both ends while Brandon Bussi is on the ice: what the team generates on the left, what it concedes on the right. Every attempt is a Gaussian bump of height = its model xG, summed per 60 minutes of ice time (a player's exposure is time, not games). The controls switch the surface (xG heatmap ↔ vs league, the league baseline per team-hour at the same strength) and the markers: × goal · • on net · ◦ missed · small • blocked.

The page opens at 5v5; empty-net attempts are excluded throughout. On-ice membership comes from the shift charts; attempts without usable shift coverage are absent from both ends. Blocked-shot membership cannot be cross-checked against the play-by-play, so treat blocked-marker detail as softer than the rest.

Observed production

5v5 · on-ice · season to date
for against
axis spans ±157% of the goalie cohort average · centre = average · right = more
Goalson-ice
19 62nd pctl14 40th pctl
Shotson-ice
161 55th pctl123 30th pctl
Attemptson-ice
346 52nd pctl256 30th pctl
xGon-ice
14.9 51st pctl12.8 33rd pctl
xGF%share of on-ice xG
53.8%78th pctl
0% 50% = even split · gray = cohort middle 50% / 90% 100%

Percentiles rank against the other goalies over the display floor at the selected strength — a non-strength filter (rush, period, …) moves the bars but keeps that strength's spread as the backdrop.

Rolling on-ice xGF%

5v5 · last 10 games
Per-game chance share while on the ice, smoothed. drag the slider to set the window
The model

Model estimates

🔒 as of Jun 14, 2026
Last season's ratings and goals accounting (2025-26) — 2026-27 is not rated until it has enough games to refit. The observed rows above are 2026-27.
Goals savedshot-stopping · vs an average goalie
+6.8069th pctl
Shot-stopping only. Puck-handling, rebound control beyond what the shot model sees, and penalties are not in this number — it is not a complete account of a goalie, and it is not comparable to a skater's GAA.
−29.050 = league average+29.05

Ranked against goalies; the band behind the bar is that cohort's spread (p5–p95, middle half brighter, dashed median), so where the bar lands against its band is the rank — the ordinal beside it makes that exact. Zero is an average goalie on the shots this one actually faced, so the number is already adjusted for how dangerous his workload was. There is no above-replacement view: replacement level for goalies is a separate question and has not been measured, and a zero drawn for it would claim otherwise.

Context

Usage & context

season to date
How much Brandon Bussi played, not how well. Not a modeled component and not a grade — the modeled read is the Saving row above.
Time on iceall situations · min per game
60:50per game
0cohort average100 pctl

Deployment and discipline reads are skater-only: the RAPM usage fit runs on 5v5 skater stints and the penalty denominator counts skaters, so neither describes a goalie.

Full table · all numbers
FamilyStatValue (current slice)
Observed ◆ filtered Goals on-ice for / against 19 / 14
Observed ◆ filtered xG on-ice for / against 14.9 / 12.8
Observed ◆ filtered Shots on-ice for / against 161 / 123
Observed ◆ filtered Attempts on-ice for / against 346 / 256
Observed ◆ filteredxGF% 53.8%
Modeled 🔒 season Goals saved — shot-stopping · vs an average goalie +6.80 69th pctl
Modeled 🔒 season ↳ Goals saved — 82
Modeled 🔒 season ↳ Goals saved — —
ContextTime on ice — all situations · min per game 60:50 (87th pctl)

Observed values reflect the active rink filters; modeled values are fixed at their full-season fit.

On-ice numbers pair the regular-season shot set with shift-chart membership; skaters and goalies under the display floors are fit but not shown. Modeled rows come from the value artifact keyed to RAPM fit rapm__0cd6d075 on nested_structure__nested_structure_xg__d2ec2662 (the joint-xg structural baseline), with ratings from joint__baseline_xg__f3e3111e (as of 2026-06-14) — separate surfaces from the box-score xG model badged in the footer.