xJawn NHL expected goals

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UTA 1 – 4 COL

Utah Mammoth at Colorado Avalanche

Final · Sep 20, 2026
2026-27 · preseason

Exhibition game. Split squads and tryouts, an audition rather than a game plan, and one game of anything is noise. None of it feeds the site's ratings, season tables or game predictions — preseason is kept out of every model here by construction.

On the ice
Adjusts with rink filters

Strength and score are read from UTA's side, the same minutes at both ends: PP = UTA power play · PK = COL power play · Leading = UTA ahead · ST = each club's own power play.

UTA attacks◀ all strengths
COL attacksall strengths ▶
× goal• on net ◦ missed· blocked hover any attempt for the shooter, its xG and everything the model saw
How to read this map

One rink, both teams: UTA attacks the left net, COL the right. Every attempt is a Gaussian bump of height = its model xG. The controls switch the surface (xG heatmap ↔ vs league) and the markers; vs league compares this game against a typical NHL team-game under the same filter (2026-27 regular season, 283 games), so a 5v5 view is measured against league 5v5.

A strength or score filter is read from UTA's side and mirrored for COL: “UTA PP” shows UTA's power-play attempts on the left and COL's shorthanded attempts on the right — the same minutes of the game at both ends. Empty-net attempts are excluded unless you include them. The Player control narrows the map and the rows beneath it to the attempts by either club while one player was on the ice (for a goalie, while he was in net); his own attempts wear a blue ring. vs league switches off while a player is picked — the league baseline is a whole team-game, which one player's slice is not. Hover any attempt for the shooter, the result, its xG, and the inputs behind it: clock, strength, score, shot type, distance, angle, handedness, rush/rebound, what happened just before, and the goalie or the blocker.

What each side produced

all strengths · this game
UTA COL
bars share a scale within each row · the longer bar is the row's leader
Goalson the map
1 4
Expected goals
2.54 2.27
xG%share of xG
53% 47%
High-dangerattempts ≥ 0.20 xG
1 1
Shots on goal
24 17
Attempts
47 49
xG by period · whole game 1st0.1–0.62nd1.0–0.93rd1.4–0.8

The Avalanche beat the Mammoth 4–1 at home in a game the chances called about even, UTA 2.5 to COL 2.3 in expected goals. The Mammoth power play made 1.0 xG on 11 attempts.

Counts come from the shot table behind the map: empty-net attempts and the shootout are excluded, so the goals here can trail the official final by an empty-netter or the shootout's deciding goal. Same numbers as the post-game cards.

As the game went

all situations · this game
cumulative UTA − COL xG · bands = power plays · lines = goals
1ST2ND3RD+0.5−0.5+1−1UTA AHEAD ▲COL AHEAD ▼
How to read this

One line: cumulative UTA minus COL expected goals. Above zero UTA is ahead on chances, below zero COL is. Shaded bands are power plays in the side's colour; vertical lines are goals.

Goals

this game
xG = the chance, before it went in
TeamScorerPeriodTimexG
UTAYegor Borikov 2nd15:27 0.24
COLBeckett Hamilton 2nd8:54 0.25
COLGavin Brindley 3rd1:52 0.19
COLBrock Nelson 3rd2:27 PP 0.10
COLTaylor Makar 3rd17:27 0.16
Who

Skaters

all · whole game · this game
on-ice xG for and against, his own attempts, the net
strength
period
sort
How to read this

Every skater: on-ice xG against to the left of zero, for to the right, his own attempts as the solid bar, a hash at the net. The slim track under the name is ice time. The chart opens sorted by net, best first; pick another key to re-order it, and click the same key again to flip it. A name opens the player's page. Pick a period and every bar re-lays for that period alone on the same scale as the whole game, so the three periods add up to it; a skater who did not play in it fades to the bottom.

UTA
against for own net ice time
0.50.5111.51.50Daniil ButF16:33+0.87John MarinoD24:26+0.58Yegor BorikovF12:57+0.42Vincent TrocheckF18:24+0.37Joshua RoyF13:48+0.35Lawson CrouseF19:24+0.27Gabe SmithF14:53+0.23Artem DudaD22:44+0.19Kailer YamamotoF15:38+0.13Michael CarconeF13:46+0.04Caleb DesnoyersF12:37+0.01Ben McCartneyF12:39-0.04Max PšeničkaD15:38-0.09Kevin RooneyF12:12-0.15Brandon TanevF12:24-0.17Maveric LamoureuxD19:09-0.26Gregor BiberD14:58-0.35Nick DeSimoneD19:15-0.37
0.250.250.50.50.750.75110Artem DudaD17:48+0.53Yegor BorikovF11:41+0.37Joshua RoyF11:08+0.22Gabe SmithF13:05+0.17John MarinoD17:38+0.07Kailer YamamotoF10:51+0.07Caleb DesnoyersF11:37-0.05Nick DeSimoneD14:32-0.09Ben McCartneyF11:26-0.09Max PšeničkaD15:20-0.09Maveric LamoureuxD16:13-0.10Daniil ButF13:05-0.11Brandon TanevF10:22-0.11Lawson CrouseF11:36-0.12Kevin RooneyF9:54-0.15Michael CarconeF12:15-0.28Gregor BiberD13:01-0.38Vincent TrocheckF13:18-0.45
0.250.250.50.50.750.75110Vincent TrocheckF3:28+0.98John MarinoD3:28+0.98Daniil ButF3:28+0.98Lawson CrouseF3:26+0.98Kailer YamamotoF1:20+0.56Michael CarconeF1:31+0.32Joshua RoyF1:34+0.16Nick DeSimoneD1:02+0.06Caleb DesnoyersF1:00+0.06Gabe SmithF0:59+0.06Yegor BorikovF0:59+0.06
0.250.250.50.50.750.750Ben McCartneyF1:13+0.05Gregor BiberD1:57+0.02Kevin RooneyF1:50+0.00Gabe SmithF0:49+0.00Max PšeničkaD0:18+0.00Yegor BorikovF0:17+0.00Joshua RoyF0:05+0.00Brandon TanevF2:02-0.06Vincent TrocheckF1:38-0.16Maveric LamoureuxD2:23-0.16Artem DudaD3:55-0.30Nick DeSimoneD3:13-0.31Kailer YamamotoF2:54-0.47John MarinoD3:20-0.47Lawson CrouseF4:22-0.59
COL
against for own net ice time
0.50.5111.51.50Domenick FensoreD17:30+0.83Gabriel LandeskogF14:01+0.63Jaden SchwartzF14:25+0.41Devon ToewsD22:22+0.38Martin NecasF15:25+0.28Nazem KadriF14:42+0.19T.J. HughesF18:22+0.18Gavin BrindleyF15:43+0.18Alex GagneD18:28+0.14Artturi LehkonenF18:34-0.04Taylor MakarF12:08-0.09Beckett HamiltonF13:16-0.09Nikita PrishchepovF12:36-0.13Brock NelsonF17:34-0.20Matthew DiMarsicoF14:06-0.53Sean BehrensD18:03-0.56Josh MansonD16:27-0.86Brent BurnsD20:18-0.91
0.50.5110Domenick FensoreD16:45+0.80Gabriel LandeskogF11:15+0.43Alex GagneD17:21+0.31Devon ToewsD14:54+0.30Taylor MakarF10:41+0.23Nikita PrishchepovF11:37+0.19Gavin BrindleyF12:27+0.12Martin NecasF12:37+0.09Nazem KadriF11:04+0.05Josh MansonD13:07+0.02Jaden SchwartzF9:40-0.01Brock NelsonF10:20-0.09Beckett HamiltonF13:12-0.09Matthew DiMarsicoF13:43-0.16T.J. HughesF12:00-0.27Artturi LehkonenF12:13-0.30Sean BehrensD16:15-0.49Brent BurnsD15:39-0.55
0.250.250.50.50Devon ToewsD5:31+0.45T.J. HughesF4:49+0.42Artturi LehkonenF4:48+0.42Jaden SchwartzF4:45+0.42Brock NelsonF4:43+0.42Martin NecasF2:48+0.20Nazem KadriF2:46+0.20Gabriel LandeskogF2:46+0.20Brent BurnsD2:21+0.20Gavin BrindleyF2:10+0.16Sean BehrensD0:10+0.00Domenick FensoreD0:09+0.00Beckett HamiltonF0:04+0.00
0.250.250.50.50.750.75110T.J. HughesF0:32+0.00Nazem KadriF0:33-0.06Gavin BrindleyF1:06-0.10Sean BehrensD1:03-0.10Artturi LehkonenF1:33-0.16Alex GagneD1:07-0.16Taylor MakarF1:27-0.32Nikita PrishchepovF0:59-0.32Matthew DiMarsicoF0:23-0.37Devon ToewsD1:32-0.38Brent BurnsD1:52-0.56Brock NelsonF1:49-0.56Josh MansonD3:20-0.88

Lines & pairs

all · whole game · this game
most-used units · when they played · on-ice xG lines are by strength · 5v5 shown
strength
period
sort
How to read this

The units that actually played together most at the chosen strength — forward lines and defence pairs at 5v5, the whole group on the ice on the power play or the kill — each with when it was on the ice at that strength across the game clock (period and power-play bands behind the strip) and on-ice xG against / for while the whole unit was out, at that strength only. Sorted by time together; pick another key to re-order, and a name opens the player's page. Pick a period and the strip veils the rest of the game while the bars re-lay for that period alone, on the whole game's scale.

UTA
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF
COL
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF

Matchups

5v5 · this game
every skater against every skater, goalies first · hover a cell
order
UTA won the chances COL won them full colour = a margin of 0.75 xG or more taller = more time together (full height at 12:00) on together, dead even never on together G = goalie: his row or column is each skater against the whole other team
NabokovBlackwoodLehkonenNecasHamiltonMakarPrishchepovDiMarsicoNelsonSchwartzHughesKadriLandeskogBrindleyBurnsBehrensMansonGagneToewsFensoreGL1L2L3L4D1D2D3GL1L2L3L4D1D2D3CossaHrabalCarconeButDesnoyersTrocheckCrouseYamamotoMcCartneySmithBorikovRooneyTanevRoyMarinoDudaDeSimonePšeničkaLamoureuxBiber
How to read this

Rows are UTA's skaters, columns COL's, grouped the way they played: forward lines (L1 = the line that played together most), then defence pairs. Each cell covers the five-on-five time those two players shared the ice. Its colour is the club that out-chanced the other in that time — expected goals for minus against — and the stronger the colour, the bigger the margin. Each cell is also raised: the taller the block, the longer the two shared the ice, up to full height at 12:00 of five-on-five time. A grey cell means they met and it came out even; an open, flat one means they never met at five-on-five.

The first row and column are the goalies. A goalie is in net for every five-on-five second, so a skater's cell against the other side's goalie is all of that skater's five-on-five time against that team — the rest of his row or column added up — and the corner where the two goalies meet is the game's five-on-five. Those cells cover far more time than any pair, so they reach full colour sooner and stand at full height, a wall along each edge of the grid. A goalie change adds a second goalie row or column, each covering his own time.

Linemates share the ice, so a line against a line reads as a block. The margin is a total, not a rate: a long matchup has room to build a big gap and a thirty-second one does not — which is what the height is there to show: a tall, strong cell is the game's story; a short, strong one is a moment. Hover (or tap) any cell for the exact time together, the xG each way, attempts and goals. One game — a strong cell is what happened, not what would happen again.