xJawn NHL expected goals

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COL 1 – 3 WPG

Colorado Avalanche at Winnipeg Jets

Final · Sep 21, 2026
2026-27 · preseason

Exhibition game. Split squads and tryouts, an audition rather than a game plan, and one game of anything is noise. None of it feeds the site's ratings, season tables or game predictions — preseason is kept out of every model here by construction.

On the ice
Adjusts with rink filters

Strength and score are read from COL's side, the same minutes at both ends: PP = COL power play · PK = WPG power play · Leading = COL ahead · ST = each club's own power play.

COL attacks◀ all strengths
WPG attacksall strengths ▶
× goal• on net ◦ missed· blocked hover any attempt for the shooter, its xG and everything the model saw
How to read this map

One rink, both teams: COL attacks the left net, WPG the right. Every attempt is a Gaussian bump of height = its model xG. The controls switch the surface (xG heatmap ↔ vs league) and the markers; vs league compares this game against a typical NHL team-game under the same filter (2026-27 regular season, 283 games), so a 5v5 view is measured against league 5v5.

A strength or score filter is read from COL's side and mirrored for WPG: “COL PP” shows COL's power-play attempts on the left and WPG's shorthanded attempts on the right — the same minutes of the game at both ends. Empty-net attempts are excluded unless you include them. The Player control narrows the map and the rows beneath it to the attempts by either club while one player was on the ice (for a goalie, while he was in net); his own attempts wear a blue ring. vs league switches off while a player is picked — the league baseline is a whole team-game, which one player's slice is not. Hover any attempt for the shooter, the result, its xG, and the inputs behind it: clock, strength, score, shot type, distance, angle, handedness, rush/rebound, what happened just before, and the goalie or the blocker.

What each side produced

all strengths · this game
COL WPG
bars share a scale within each row · the longer bar is the row's leader
Goalson the map
1 3
Expected goals
2.54 3.36
xG%share of xG
43% 57%
High-dangerattempts ≥ 0.20 xG
1 2
Shots on goal
32 19
Attempts
57 51
xG by period · whole game 1st0.3–1.02nd1.3–1.83rd0.9–0.5

The Jets beat the Avalanche 3–1 at home, and the chances agreed: WPG out-created COL 3.4–2.5 in expected goals. At 5v5: COL 1.8, WPG 1.6.

Counts come from the shot table behind the map: empty-net attempts and the shootout are excluded, so the goals here can trail the official final by an empty-netter or the shootout's deciding goal. Same numbers as the post-game cards.

As the game went

all situations · this game
cumulative COL − WPG xG · bands = power plays · lines = goals
1ST2ND3RD+0.5−0.5+1−1+1.5−1.5+2−2COL AHEAD ▲WPG AHEAD ▼
How to read this

One line: cumulative COL minus WPG expected goals. Above zero COL is ahead on chances, below zero WPG is. Shaded bands are power plays in the side's colour; vertical lines are goals.

Goals

this game
xG = the chance, before it went in
TeamScorerPeriodTimexG
COLGeorgii Merkulov 3rd14:34 0.14
WPGGabriel Vilardi 1st18:55 0.08
WPGCole Perfetti 2nd18:50 0.08
WPGDylan DeMelo 3rd6:37 0.01
Who

Skaters

all · whole game · this game
on-ice xG for and against, his own attempts, the net
strength
period
sort
How to read this

Every skater: on-ice xG against to the left of zero, for to the right, his own attempts as the solid bar, a hash at the net. The slim track under the name is ice time. The chart opens sorted by net, best first; pick another key to re-order it, and click the same key again to flip it. A name opens the player's page. Pick a period and every bar re-lays for that period alone on the same scale as the whole game, so the three periods add up to it; a skater who did not play in it fades to the bottom.

COL
against for own net ice time
0.50.5111.51.5222.52.50Adam BeckmanF16:03+1.17Tristen NielsenF15:22+0.89Christian WolaninD17:24+0.83Fabian LysellF15:16+0.70Gustav StjernbergD15:21+0.48Nikita PrishchepovF11:01+0.08Taylor MakarF13:21+0.04Noah JuulsenD18:10-0.25Alex GagneD17:00-0.27Vinnie HinostrozaF13:53-0.39Brett KulakD20:45-0.39Zachary L'HeureuxF12:00-0.49Parker KellyF16:32-0.49Logan O'ConnorF17:36-0.66Georgii MerkulovF16:23-0.84Fedor SvechkovF17:49-1.18Nicolas RoyF18:18-1.29Sam MalinskiD24:25-1.45
0.250.250.50.50.750.75110Adam BeckmanF12:07+0.66Gustav StjernbergD14:13+0.63Vinnie HinostrozaF10:28+0.59Christian WolaninD14:34+0.55Tristen NielsenF12:31+0.53Fabian LysellF11:25+0.19Taylor MakarF10:53+0.09Nikita PrishchepovF11:01+0.08Noah JuulsenD15:53+0.08Alex GagneD14:56+0.06Georgii MerkulovF12:19+0.05Fedor SvechkovF12:24-0.25Nicolas RoyF12:25-0.26Brett KulakD18:38-0.28Parker KellyF13:43-0.32Sam MalinskiD17:53-0.48Zachary L'HeureuxF11:46-0.49Logan O'ConnorF14:21-0.49
0.50.5110Adam BeckmanF1:50+0.60Fabian LysellF1:53+0.51Tristen NielsenF1:51+0.37Christian WolaninD1:50+0.35Taylor MakarF0:53+0.02Parker KellyF0:14+0.02Logan O'ConnorF0:14+0.02Brett KulakD0:14+0.00Noah JuulsenD0:14+0.00Zachary L'HeureuxF0:14+0.00Sam MalinskiD1:56-0.78Fedor SvechkovF1:56-0.79Georgii MerkulovF1:56-0.79Nicolas RoyF1:53-0.79Vinnie HinostrozaF1:55-0.81
0.250.250.50.50Taylor MakarF0:35-0.07Christian WolaninD0:33-0.07Adam BeckmanF0:11-0.09Georgii MerkulovF0:11-0.09Brett KulakD0:50-0.12Gustav StjernbergD1:08-0.14Fedor SvechkovF1:07-0.14Vinnie HinostrozaF0:49-0.16Logan O'ConnorF1:57-0.19Parker KellyF1:51-0.19Sam MalinskiD1:21-0.19Nicolas RoyF1:20-0.23Alex GagneD2:04-0.32Noah JuulsenD2:03-0.32
WPG
against for own net ice time
0.50.5111.51.5220Vladislav NamestnikovF15:56+1.57Noah GregorF14:37+1.57Dylan DeMeloD20:14+0.86Josh MorrisseyD20:15+0.52Mario FerraroD20:02+0.42Cole KoepkeF15:13+0.36Gabriel VilardiF16:25+0.26Jacob JulienF9:48+0.20Isak RosénF13:54+0.19Davis BurnsideF8:31+0.06Viggo BjörckF15:17+0.03Henry ThrunD20:04-0.04Kieron WaltonF9:39-0.08Dysin MayoD16:58-0.23Mark ScheifeleF18:45-0.39Cole PerfettiF17:38-0.42Jack St. IvanyD18:54-0.45Kyle ConnorF19:55-0.53
0.50.5110Cole KoepkeF11:35+0.78Vladislav NamestnikovF11:47+0.61Noah GregorF12:25+0.59Josh MorrisseyD16:17+0.23Dylan DeMeloD15:36+0.22Davis BurnsideF8:31+0.06Viggo BjörckF12:45-0.02Jacob JulienF8:47-0.03Isak RosénF12:42-0.04Kieron WaltonF9:39-0.08Gabriel VilardiF12:50-0.09Mario FerraroD16:36-0.16Henry ThrunD15:46-0.19Dysin MayoD16:36-0.23Jack St. IvanyD15:59-0.23Mark ScheifeleF14:31-0.73Cole PerfettiF14:32-0.76Kyle ConnorF14:36-0.86
0.250.250.50.50Mark ScheifeleF2:47+0.34Gabriel VilardiF2:47+0.34Cole PerfettiF2:46+0.34Kyle ConnorF2:45+0.34Josh MorrisseyD2:42+0.34Henry ThrunD1:18+0.24Viggo BjörckF1:16+0.24Vladislav NamestnikovF1:14+0.24Isak RosénF1:12+0.24Jacob JulienF1:01+0.24Dysin MayoD0:12+0.00
0.50.5110Noah GregorF1:20+0.98Vladislav NamestnikovF1:29+0.73Dylan DeMeloD2:21+0.65Mario FerraroD1:58+0.58Mark ScheifeleF0:14+0.00Kyle ConnorF0:32-0.02Josh MorrisseyD0:36-0.06Henry ThrunD1:24-0.09Viggo BjörckF1:16-0.19Jack St. IvanyD1:40-0.22Cole KoepkeF2:13-0.42

Lines & pairs

all · whole game · this game
most-used units · when they played · on-ice xG lines are by strength · 5v5 shown
strength
period
sort
How to read this

The units that actually played together most at the chosen strength — forward lines and defence pairs at 5v5, the whole group on the ice on the power play or the kill — each with when it was on the ice at that strength across the game clock (period and power-play bands behind the strip) and on-ice xG against / for while the whole unit was out, at that strength only. Sorted by time together; pick another key to re-order, and a name opens the player's page. Pick a period and the strip veils the rest of the game while the bars re-lay for that period alone, on the whole game's scale.

COL
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF
WPG
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF

Matchups

5v5 · this game
every skater against every skater, goalies first · hover a cell
order
COL won the chances WPG won them full colour = a margin of 0.75 xG or more taller = more time together (full height at 12:00) on together, dead even never on together G = goalie: his row or column is each skater against the whole other team
SkinnerScheifeleConnorPerfettiVilardiRosénBjörckNamestnikovGregorKoepkeJulienWaltonBurnsideDeMeloMorrisseyFerraroSt. IvanyMayoThrunGL1L2L3L4D1D2D3GL1L2L3L4D1D2D3WedgewoodNabokovKellyO'ConnorL'HeureuxRoySvechkovMakarHinostrozaBeckmanNielsenLysellMerkulovPrishchepovKulakMalinskiJuulsenGagneWolaninStjernberg
How to read this

Rows are COL's skaters, columns WPG's, grouped the way they played: forward lines (L1 = the line that played together most), then defence pairs. Each cell covers the five-on-five time those two players shared the ice. Its colour is the club that out-chanced the other in that time — expected goals for minus against — and the stronger the colour, the bigger the margin. Each cell is also raised: the taller the block, the longer the two shared the ice, up to full height at 12:00 of five-on-five time. A grey cell means they met and it came out even; an open, flat one means they never met at five-on-five.

The first row and column are the goalies. A goalie is in net for every five-on-five second, so a skater's cell against the other side's goalie is all of that skater's five-on-five time against that team — the rest of his row or column added up — and the corner where the two goalies meet is the game's five-on-five. Those cells cover far more time than any pair, so they reach full colour sooner and stand at full height, a wall along each edge of the grid. A goalie change adds a second goalie row or column, each covering his own time.

Linemates share the ice, so a line against a line reads as a block. The margin is a total, not a rate: a long matchup has room to build a big gap and a thirty-second one does not — which is what the height is there to show: a tall, strong cell is the game's story; a short, strong one is a moment. Hover (or tap) any cell for the exact time together, the xG each way, attempts and goals. One game — a strong cell is what happened, not what would happen again.