xJawn NHL expected goals

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EDM 2 – 1 WPG

Edmonton Oilers at Winnipeg Jets

Final / OT · Sep 22, 2026
2026-27 · preseason

Exhibition game. Split squads and tryouts, an audition rather than a game plan, and one game of anything is noise. None of it feeds the site's ratings, season tables or game predictions — preseason is kept out of every model here by construction.

On the ice
Adjusts with rink filters

Strength and score are read from EDM's side, the same minutes at both ends: PP = EDM power play · PK = WPG power play · Leading = EDM ahead · ST = each club's own power play.

EDM attacks◀ all strengths
WPG attacksall strengths ▶
× goal• on net ◦ missed· blocked hover any attempt for the shooter, its xG and everything the model saw
How to read this map

One rink, both teams: EDM attacks the left net, WPG the right. Every attempt is a Gaussian bump of height = its model xG. The controls switch the surface (xG heatmap ↔ vs league) and the markers; vs league compares this game against a typical NHL team-game under the same filter (2026-27 regular season, 283 games), so a 5v5 view is measured against league 5v5.

A strength or score filter is read from EDM's side and mirrored for WPG: “EDM PP” shows EDM's power-play attempts on the left and WPG's shorthanded attempts on the right — the same minutes of the game at both ends. Empty-net attempts are excluded unless you include them. The Player control narrows the map and the rows beneath it to the attempts by either club while one player was on the ice (for a goalie, while he was in net); his own attempts wear a blue ring. vs league switches off while a player is picked — the league baseline is a whole team-game, which one player's slice is not. Hover any attempt for the shooter, the result, its xG, and the inputs behind it: clock, strength, score, shot type, distance, angle, handedness, rush/rebound, what happened just before, and the goalie or the blocker.

What each side produced

all strengths · this game
EDM WPG
bars share a scale within each row · the longer bar is the row's leader
Goalson the map
2 1
Expected goals
2.19 1.60
xG%share of xG
58% 42%
High-dangerattempts ≥ 0.20 xG
3 1
Shots on goal
23 18
Attempts
50 51
xG by period · whole game 1st0.7–0.62nd1.0–0.43rd0.3–0.6OT0.2–0.0

The Oilers beat the Jets 2–1 in overtime on the road in a game the chances called about even, EDM 2.2 to WPG 1.6 in expected goals. At 5v5: EDM 1.7, WPG 1.3.

Counts come from the shot table behind the map: empty-net attempts and the shootout are excluded, so the goals here can trail the official final by an empty-netter or the shootout's deciding goal. Same numbers as the post-game cards.

As the game went

all situations · this game
cumulative EDM − WPG xG · bands = power plays · lines = goals
1ST2ND3RDOT+0.5−0.5+1−1EDM AHEAD ▲WPG AHEAD ▼
How to read this

One line: cumulative EDM minus WPG expected goals. Above zero EDM is ahead on chances, below zero WPG is. Shaded bands are power plays in the side's colour; vertical lines are goals.

Goals

this game
xG = the chance, before it went in
TeamScorerPeriodTimexG
EDMAtro Leppanen 1st15:50 0.01
EDMViljami Marjala OT1:26 0.16
WPGAlex Iafallo 1st13:04 0.09
Who

Skaters

all · whole game · this game
on-ice xG for and against, his own attempts, the net
strength
period
sort
How to read this

Every skater: on-ice xG against to the left of zero, for to the right, his own attempts as the solid bar, a hash at the net. The slim track under the name is ice time. The chart opens sorted by net, best first; pick another key to re-order it, and click the same key again to flip it. A name opens the player's page. Pick a period and every bar re-lays for that period alone on the same scale as the whole game, so the three periods add up to it; a skater who did not play in it fades to the bottom.

EDM
against for own net ice time
0.50.5111.51.50Viljami MarjalaF14:58+0.80Quinn HutsonF12:58+0.59Trent FredericF16:10+0.40Kasperi KapanenF20:31+0.27Connor MurphyD23:09+0.25Jake WalmanD22:34+0.25Simon TassyF10:01+0.24Atro LeppanenD16:30+0.21Damien CarfagnaD17:12+0.21Josh SamanskiF14:04+0.06Zach HymanF18:49+0.02Shakir MukhamadullinD21:25-0.04Eduards TralmaksF9:57-0.04Joshua BrownD17:43-0.05Aku RatyF10:42-0.09Isaac HowardF17:07-0.13Owen MichaelsF13:26-0.14Ryan Nugent-HopkinsF21:02-0.15
0.50.5110Viljami MarjalaF11:34+0.62Quinn HutsonF10:23+0.60Trent FredericF13:23+0.41Simon TassyF9:33+0.24Atro LeppanenD14:01+0.23Damien CarfagnaD14:34+0.23Kasperi KapanenF13:35+0.13Connor MurphyD18:54+0.13Josh SamanskiF11:21+0.12Jake WalmanD15:30+0.09Shakir MukhamadullinD17:38+0.03Joshua BrownD15:31+0.01Eduards TralmaksF9:57-0.04Owen MichaelsF11:08-0.07Aku RatyF10:16-0.09Isaac HowardF14:47-0.25Zach HymanF13:26-0.29Ryan Nugent-HopkinsF14:29-0.31
0.250.250.50.50Jake WalmanD3:14+0.17Kasperi KapanenF3:06+0.17Zach HymanF3:01+0.17Ryan Nugent-HopkinsF2:57+0.17Isaac HowardF2:20+0.13Viljami MarjalaF3:06+0.02Owen MichaelsF0:34+0.00Simon TassyF0:28+0.00Aku RatyF0:26+0.00Shakir MukhamadullinD0:17+0.00Connor MurphyD0:15+0.00Joshua BrownD0:03+0.00Damien CarfagnaD2:36-0.02Quinn HutsonF2:35-0.02Trent FredericF2:33-0.02Atro LeppanenD2:29-0.02
0.250.250Zach HymanF1:27+0.00Trent FredericF0:14+0.00Viljami MarjalaF0:12+0.00Damien CarfagnaD0:02+0.00Connor MurphyD3:55-0.03Jake WalmanD3:19-0.04Ryan Nugent-HopkinsF3:05-0.04Josh SamanskiF1:53-0.04Kasperi KapanenF3:19-0.05Shakir MukhamadullinD2:41-0.06Joshua BrownD2:09-0.06Owen MichaelsF1:44-0.06
WPG
against for own net ice time
0.50.5110Nino NiederreiterF16:47+0.61Alex IafalloF14:55+0.59Brayden YagerF18:59+0.53Isaak PhillipsD14:12+0.15Neal PionkD27:16+0.14Alfons FreijD14:13+0.10Brad LambertF17:58-0.02Dylan SambergD23:25-0.12Morgan BarronF18:22-0.13Adam LowryF17:27-0.14Kevin HeF12:37-0.29Lucas WahlinF13:04-0.29Colby BarlowF12:15-0.36Nikita ChibrikovF13:42-0.51Parker FordF14:09-0.54Haydn FleuryD19:43-0.61Tyrel BauerD17:17-0.75Danil ZhilkinF11:57-0.75
0.250.250.50.50.750.75110Nino NiederreiterF12:32+0.73Alex IafalloF11:53+0.71Brayden YagerF12:28+0.68Isaak PhillipsD13:22+0.15Alfons FreijD12:50+0.10Dylan SambergD20:13+0.07Neal PionkD18:57+0.04Brad LambertF12:57-0.09Adam LowryF13:47-0.14Morgan BarronF13:57-0.17Kevin HeF10:36-0.35Lucas WahlinF11:31-0.35Colby BarlowF11:06-0.36Haydn FleuryD16:17-0.51Nikita ChibrikovF10:11-0.55Tyrel BauerD14:35-0.57Parker FordF12:09-0.58Danil ZhilkinF10:39-0.60
0.250.250Brad LambertF4:30+0.10Neal PionkD4:25+0.10Lucas WahlinF1:33+0.06Alex IafalloF1:24+0.06Kevin HeF2:01+0.06Nikita ChibrikovF3:31+0.04Nino NiederreiterF4:10+0.03Brayden YagerF4:03+0.03Alfons FreijD1:20+0.00Colby BarlowF1:09+0.00Morgan BarronF0:26+0.00Parker FordF0:25+0.00Haydn FleuryD0:23+0.00Adam LowryF0:22+0.00Tyrel BauerD0:15+0.00Isaak PhillipsD0:03+0.00
0.250.250Parker FordF1:35+0.03Neal PionkD3:23+0.03Morgan BarronF3:09+0.02Adam LowryF2:47+0.02Danil ZhilkinF1:09+0.00Isaak PhillipsD0:47+0.00Alfons FreijD0:03+0.00Dylan SambergD2:17-0.04Haydn FleuryD3:03-0.11Alex IafalloF1:38-0.17Tyrel BauerD2:27-0.18Brayden YagerF1:42-0.21

Lines & pairs

all · whole game · this game
most-used units · when they played · on-ice xG lines are by strength · 5v5 shown
strength
period
sort
How to read this

The units that actually played together most at the chosen strength — forward lines and defence pairs at 5v5, the whole group on the ice on the power play or the kill — each with when it was on the ice at that strength across the game clock (period and power-play bands behind the strip) and on-ice xG against / for while the whole unit was out, at that strength only. Sorted by time together; pick another key to re-order, and a name opens the player's page. Pick a period and the strip veils the rest of the game while the bars re-lay for that period alone, on the whole game's scale.

EDM
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF
WPG
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF

Matchups

5v5 · this game
every skater against every skater, goalies first · hover a cell
order
EDM won the chances WPG won them full colour = a margin of 0.75 xG or more taller = more time together (full height at 12:00) on together, dead even never on together G = goalie: his row or column is each skater against the whole other team
DiVincentiisLowryBarronLambertNiederreiterIafalloYagerBarlowHeWahlinChibrikovZhilkinFordSambergPionkFleuryBauerPhillipsFreijGL1L2L3L4D1D2D3GL1L2L3L4D1D2D3LeviUngarHymanNugent-HopkinsHowardKapanenFredericSamanskiRatyMichaelsTassyTralmaksMarjalaHutsonMurphyWalmanBrownMukhamadullinCarfagnaLeppanen
How to read this

Rows are EDM's skaters, columns WPG's, grouped the way they played: forward lines (L1 = the line that played together most), then defence pairs. Each cell covers the five-on-five time those two players shared the ice. Its colour is the club that out-chanced the other in that time — expected goals for minus against — and the stronger the colour, the bigger the margin. Each cell is also raised: the taller the block, the longer the two shared the ice, up to full height at 12:00 of five-on-five time. A grey cell means they met and it came out even; an open, flat one means they never met at five-on-five.

The first row and column are the goalies. A goalie is in net for every five-on-five second, so a skater's cell against the other side's goalie is all of that skater's five-on-five time against that team — the rest of his row or column added up — and the corner where the two goalies meet is the game's five-on-five. Those cells cover far more time than any pair, so they reach full colour sooner and stand at full height, a wall along each edge of the grid. A goalie change adds a second goalie row or column, each covering his own time.

Linemates share the ice, so a line against a line reads as a block. The margin is a total, not a rate: a long matchup has room to build a big gap and a thirty-second one does not — which is what the height is there to show: a tall, strong cell is the game's story; a short, strong one is a moment. Hover (or tap) any cell for the exact time together, the xG each way, attempts and goals. One game — a strong cell is what happened, not what would happen again.