xJawn NHL expected goals

← Preseason

Save a card: Summary · Full card · Game flow · CBJ skaters · BUF skaters · CBJ lines · BUF lines · Matchups
Today's puzzle Remember Some Guys — name the skater from the shape of his career. Three clues, one guess a day. Play →
Final · Sep 22, 2026
2026-27 · preseason

Exhibition game. Split squads and tryouts, an audition rather than a game plan, and one game of anything is noise. None of it feeds the site's ratings, season tables or game predictions — preseason is kept out of every model here by construction.

On the ice
Adjusts with rink filters

Strength and score are read from CBJ's side, the same minutes at both ends: PP = CBJ power play · PK = BUF power play · Leading = CBJ ahead · ST = each club's own power play.

CBJ attacks◀ all strengths
BUF attacksall strengths ▶
× goal• on net ◦ missed· blocked hover any attempt for the shooter, its xG and everything the model saw
How to read this map

One rink, both teams: CBJ attacks the left net, BUF the right. Every attempt is a Gaussian bump of height = its model xG. The controls switch the surface (xG heatmap ↔ vs league) and the markers; vs league compares this game against a typical NHL team-game under the same filter (2026-27 regular season, 283 games), so a 5v5 view is measured against league 5v5.

A strength or score filter is read from CBJ's side and mirrored for BUF: “CBJ PP” shows CBJ's power-play attempts on the left and BUF's shorthanded attempts on the right — the same minutes of the game at both ends. Empty-net attempts are excluded unless you include them. The Player control narrows the map and the rows beneath it to the attempts by either club while one player was on the ice (for a goalie, while he was in net); his own attempts wear a blue ring. vs league switches off while a player is picked — the league baseline is a whole team-game, which one player's slice is not. Hover any attempt for the shooter, the result, its xG, and the inputs behind it: clock, strength, score, shot type, distance, angle, handedness, rush/rebound, what happened just before, and the goalie or the blocker.

What each side produced

all strengths · this game
CBJ BUF
bars share a scale within each row · the longer bar is the row's leader
Goalson the map
1 5
Expected goals
1.35 4.66
xG%share of xG
22% 78%
High-dangerattempts ≥ 0.20 xG
1 5
Shots on goal
25 35
Attempts
48 67
xG by period · whole game 1st0.2–1.62nd0.7–2.63rd0.5–0.5

The Sabres beat the Blue Jackets 5–1 at home, and the chances agreed: BUF out-created CBJ 4.7–1.4 in expected goals. The Sabres power play made 0.9 xG on 7 attempts.

Counts come from the shot table behind the map: empty-net attempts and the shootout are excluded, so the goals here can trail the official final by an empty-netter or the shootout's deciding goal. Same numbers as the post-game cards.

As the game went

all situations · this game
cumulative CBJ − BUF xG · bands = power plays · lines = goals
1ST2ND3RD+1−1+2−2+3−3CBJ AHEAD ▲BUF AHEAD ▼
How to read this

One line: cumulative CBJ minus BUF expected goals. Above zero CBJ is ahead on chances, below zero BUF is. Shaded bands are power plays in the side's colour; vertical lines are goals.

Goals

this game
xG = the chance, before it went in
TeamScorerPeriodTimexG
CBJCorson Ceulemans 3rd16:19 0.03
BUFJosh Norris 2nd10:12 0.10
BUFNoah Ostlund 2nd11:54 0.30
BUFNoah Ostlund 2nd12:22 0.19
BUFConor Timmins 3rd3:53 0.17
BUFTage Thompson 3rd14:32 0.05
Who

Skaters

all · whole game · this game
on-ice xG for and against, his own attempts, the net
strength
period
sort
How to read this

Every skater: on-ice xG against to the left of zero, for to the right, his own attempts as the solid bar, a hash at the net. The slim track under the name is ice time. The chart opens sorted by net, best first; pick another key to re-order it, and click the same key again to flip it. A name opens the player's page. Pick a period and every bar re-lays for that period alone on the same scale as the whole game, so the three periods add up to it; a skater who did not play in it fades to the bottom.

CBJ
against for own net ice time
0.50.5111.51.5220Dmitri VoronkovF15:25+0.07Mikael PyyhtiaF4:15+0.02Jack WilliamsF17:52-0.16Luke TuchF18:34-0.24Jordan DumaisF15:02-0.34Josh EernisseF13:24-0.50Charlie ElickD18:13-0.73Jake ChristiansenD23:57-0.91Carson SoucyD16:30-0.92Ryan LombergF14:10-0.96Luca MarrelliD17:46-0.97Luca PinelliF17:40-1.00Oiva KeskinenF16:19-1.00James MalatestaF11:35-1.01Miles WoodF13:10-1.21Boston BuckbergerD21:41-1.44Corson CeulemansD18:32-1.67Owen SillingerF16:39-1.68
0.50.5111.51.50Mikael PyyhtiaF2:56+0.02Jordan DumaisF11:47-0.22Josh EernisseF10:54-0.24Dmitri VoronkovF10:21-0.28Carson SoucyD13:29-0.32Luke TuchF13:42-0.37Charlie ElickD14:52-0.38Jake ChristiansenD16:29-0.41Jack WilliamsF11:30-0.44Miles WoodF11:47-0.70Ryan LombergF12:48-0.77Owen SillingerF12:20-0.78Luca MarrelliD11:40-0.81Oiva KeskinenF11:10-0.90Luca PinelliF13:05-0.95Corson CeulemansD15:36-1.01James MalatestaF11:05-1.01Boston BuckbergerD16:09-1.53
0.250.250.50.50Luke TuchF3:52+0.34Boston BuckbergerD3:35+0.34Jack WilliamsF3:33+0.34Dmitri VoronkovF3:31+0.34Jake ChristiansenD2:29+0.24Luca PinelliF2:56+0.11Luca MarrelliD4:14+0.09Owen SillingerF0:55+0.02Carson SoucyD0:02+0.00Miles WoodF0:02+0.00Ryan LombergF0:02+0.00Corson CeulemansD0:02+0.00Jordan DumaisF3:01-0.01Oiva KeskinenF2:44-0.01Josh EernisseF2:12-0.03
0.250.250.50.50.750.750Mikael PyyhtiaF0:38+0.00Oiva KeskinenF0:35+0.00Jack WilliamsF1:17-0.08Boston BuckbergerD0:46-0.08Ryan LombergF0:40-0.11Jordan DumaisF0:12-0.11Josh EernisseF0:18-0.24Luke TuchF0:10-0.24Charlie ElickD1:32-0.27Miles WoodF0:56-0.34Carson SoucyD1:09-0.35Jake ChristiansenD2:06-0.50Owen SillingerF1:46-0.50Corson CeulemansD2:25-0.65
BUF
against for own net ice time
0.50.5111.51.5222.52.50Owen PowerD24:05+2.37Tage ThompsonF17:00+2.24Josh DoanF14:15+1.84Olen ZellwegerD13:37+1.70Jack QuinnF17:12+1.60Peyton KrebsF13:03+1.28Zach BensonF15:59+1.24Ryan McLeodF15:27+0.73Rasmus DahlinD24:45+0.72Noah OstlundF15:41+0.68Conor TimminsD22:19+0.65Josh NorrisF14:25+0.62Konsta HeleniusF12:58+0.41Jiri KulichF12:25+0.08Louis CrevierD20:45+0.06Mattias SamuelssonD9:24+0.05Beck MalenstynF11:13-0.01Sam CarrickF11:31-0.09
0.50.5111.51.5220Owen PowerD16:29+1.72Peyton KrebsF12:53+1.28Tage ThompsonF13:03+1.16Conor TimminsD18:15+1.14Josh DoanF11:28+1.03Olen ZellwegerD9:52+0.97Jack QuinnF10:45+0.87Noah OstlundF11:27+0.61Zach BensonF10:16+0.57Josh NorrisF9:44+0.55Ryan McLeodF10:20+0.52Louis CrevierD17:48+0.43Konsta HeleniusF11:52+0.41Rasmus DahlinD19:09+0.18Mattias SamuelssonD7:11-0.01Beck MalenstynF9:54-0.08Sam CarrickF10:37-0.09Jiri KulichF10:39-0.17
0.250.250.50.50.750.75110Tage ThompsonF2:52+0.93Zach BensonF2:48+0.93Jack QuinnF2:44+0.81Josh DoanF2:40+0.81Rasmus DahlinD1:20+0.69Olen ZellwegerD0:12+0.11Jiri KulichF0:12+0.11Owen PowerD1:12+0.00Josh NorrisF1:08+0.00Ryan McLeodF1:08+0.00Noah OstlundF1:06+0.00Konsta HeleniusF1:06+0.00Mattias SamuelssonD0:02+0.00
0.250.250.50.50.750.750Olen ZellwegerD0:59+0.27Owen PowerD2:56+0.14Beck MalenstynF1:17+0.07Ryan McLeodF3:04+0.04Sam CarrickF0:54+0.00Jiri KulichF0:14+0.00Tage ThompsonF0:10+0.00Peyton KrebsF0:10+0.00Josh NorrisF2:24-0.10Mattias SamuelssonD0:50-0.11Noah OstlundF0:09-0.12Rasmus DahlinD2:36-0.13Jack QuinnF1:22-0.15Zach BensonF2:55-0.26Louis CrevierD1:50-0.35Conor TimminsD4:04-0.49

Lines & pairs

all · whole game · this game
most-used units · when they played · on-ice xG lines are by strength · 5v5 shown
strength
period
sort
How to read this

The units that actually played together most at the chosen strength — forward lines and defence pairs at 5v5, the whole group on the ice on the power play or the kill — each with when it was on the ice at that strength across the game clock (period and power-play bands behind the strip) and on-ice xG against / for while the whole unit was out, at that strength only. Sorted by time together; pick another key to re-order, and a name opens the player's page. Pick a period and the strip veils the rest of the game while the bars re-lay for that period alone, on the whole game's scale.

CBJ
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF
BUF
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF
PENALTY-KILL UNITSPK1Conor TimminsJosh NorrisRyan McLeodRasmus Dahlin1:01+0.00PK2Conor TimminsRyan McLeodLouis Crevier0:51-0.25PK3Beck MalenstynLouis CrevierOwen PowerZach Benson0:42+0.00SPAREJack Quinn1:22-0.15SPAREOlen Zellweger0:59+0.27SPARESam Carrick0:54+0.00SPAREMattias Samuelsson0:50-0.11SPAREJiri Kulich0:14+0.00SPARETage Thompson0:10+0.00SPAREPeyton Krebs0:10+0.00SPARENoah Ostlund0:09-0.121ST2ND3RD00.50.5

Matchups

5v5 · this game
every skater against every skater, goalies first · hover a cell
order
CBJ won the chances BUF won them full colour = a margin of 0.75 xG or more taller = more time together (full height at 12:00) on together, dead even never on together G = goalie: his row or column is each skater against the whole other team
LuukkonenEllisThompsonKrebsDoanNorrisMcLeodHeleniusCarrickMalenstynKulichQuinnOstlundBensonTimminsDahlinCrevierPowerZellwegerSamuelssonGL1L2L3FD1D2D3GL1L2L3L4D1D2DTalbotGardnerTuchMalatestaEernisseWoodLombergSillingerVoronkovPinelliWilliamsDumaisKeskinenPyyhtiaChristiansenElickCeulemansBuckbergerSoucyMarrelli
How to read this

Rows are CBJ's skaters, columns BUF's, grouped the way they played: forward lines (L1 = the line that played together most), then defence pairs. Each cell covers the five-on-five time those two players shared the ice. Its colour is the club that out-chanced the other in that time — expected goals for minus against — and the stronger the colour, the bigger the margin. Each cell is also raised: the taller the block, the longer the two shared the ice, up to full height at 12:00 of five-on-five time. A grey cell means they met and it came out even; an open, flat one means they never met at five-on-five.

The first row and column are the goalies. A goalie is in net for every five-on-five second, so a skater's cell against the other side's goalie is all of that skater's five-on-five time against that team — the rest of his row or column added up — and the corner where the two goalies meet is the game's five-on-five. Those cells cover far more time than any pair, so they reach full colour sooner and stand at full height, a wall along each edge of the grid. A goalie change adds a second goalie row or column, each covering his own time.

Linemates share the ice, so a line against a line reads as a block. The margin is a total, not a rate: a long matchup has room to build a big gap and a thirty-second one does not — which is what the height is there to show: a tall, strong cell is the game's story; a short, strong one is a moment. Hover (or tap) any cell for the exact time together, the xG each way, attempts and goals. One game — a strong cell is what happened, not what would happen again.