xJawn NHL expected goals

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UTA 6 – 3 LAK

Utah Mammoth at Los Angeles Kings

Final · Sep 22, 2026
2026-27 · preseason

Exhibition game. Split squads and tryouts, an audition rather than a game plan, and one game of anything is noise. None of it feeds the site's ratings, season tables or game predictions — preseason is kept out of every model here by construction.

On the ice
Adjusts with rink filters

Strength and score are read from UTA's side, the same minutes at both ends: PP = UTA power play · PK = LAK power play · Leading = UTA ahead · ST = each club's own power play.

UTA attacks◀ all strengths
LAK attacksall strengths ▶
× goal• on net ◦ missed· blocked hover any attempt for the shooter, its xG and everything the model saw
How to read this map

One rink, both teams: UTA attacks the left net, LAK the right. Every attempt is a Gaussian bump of height = its model xG. The controls switch the surface (xG heatmap ↔ vs league) and the markers; vs league compares this game against a typical NHL team-game under the same filter (2026-27 regular season, 283 games), so a 5v5 view is measured against league 5v5.

A strength or score filter is read from UTA's side and mirrored for LAK: “UTA PP” shows UTA's power-play attempts on the left and LAK's shorthanded attempts on the right — the same minutes of the game at both ends. Empty-net attempts are excluded unless you include them. The Player control narrows the map and the rows beneath it to the attempts by either club while one player was on the ice (for a goalie, while he was in net); his own attempts wear a blue ring. vs league switches off while a player is picked — the league baseline is a whole team-game, which one player's slice is not. Hover any attempt for the shooter, the result, its xG, and the inputs behind it: clock, strength, score, shot type, distance, angle, handedness, rush/rebound, what happened just before, and the goalie or the blocker.

What each side produced

all strengths · this game
UTA LAK
bars share a scale within each row · the longer bar is the row's leader
Goalson the map
5 3
Expected goals
3.26 2.70
xG%share of xG
55% 45%
High-dangerattempts ≥ 0.20 xG
3 2
Shots on goal
34 22
Attempts
59 43
xG by period · whole game 1st0.9–0.42nd1.7–1.23rd0.7–1.2

The Mammoth beat the Kings 6–3 on the road in a game the chances called about even, UTA 3.3 to LAK 2.7 in expected goals. The Mammoth power play made 1.1 xG on 11 attempts.

Counts come from the shot table behind the map: empty-net attempts and the shootout are excluded, so the goals here can trail the official final by an empty-netter or the shootout's deciding goal. Same numbers as the post-game cards.

As the game went

all situations · this game
cumulative UTA − LAK xG · bands = power plays · lines = goals
1ST2ND3RD+0.5−0.5+1−1+1.5−1.5UTA AHEAD ▲LAK AHEAD ▼
How to read this

One line: cumulative UTA minus LAK expected goals. Above zero UTA is ahead on chances, below zero LAK is. Shaded bands are power plays in the side's colour; vertical lines are goals.

Goals

this game
xG = the chance, before it went in
TeamScorerPeriodTimexG
UTADaniil But 1st8:49 PP 0.10
UTAClayton Keller 1st18:43 0.07
UTANick Schmaltz 2nd3:51 0.07
UTAAnders Lee 2nd12:22 0.22
UTALiam O'Brien 3rd3:14 0.19
UTAAnders Lee 3rd19:10 EN 0.40
LAKBrandt Clarke 2nd2:42 PP 0.09
LAKMartin Chromiak 2nd16:23 0.31
LAKTaylor Ward 3rd1:48 0.12
Who

Skaters

all · whole game · this game
on-ice xG for and against, his own attempts, the net
strength
period
sort
How to read this

Every skater: on-ice xG against to the left of zero, for to the right, his own attempts as the solid bar, a hash at the net. The slim track under the name is ice time. The chart opens sorted by net, best first; pick another key to re-order it, and click the same key again to flip it. A name opens the player's page. Pick a period and every bar re-lays for that period alone on the same scale as the whole game, so the three periods add up to it; a skater who did not play in it fades to the bottom.

UTA
against for own net ice time
0.50.5111.51.5220Clayton KellerF15:48+1.18Dylan GuentherF19:59+1.03Nick SchmaltzF18:44+0.94Logan CooleyF19:03+0.81Daniil ButF14:38+0.65Tij IginlaF15:45+0.54Yegor BorikovF13:07+0.51Vadim MorozF12:16+0.49Mikhail SergachevD24:07+0.44MacKenzie WeegarD21:52+0.39Anders LeeF13:59+0.39Zac JonesD17:11+0.14Maveric LamoureuxD15:19-0.19Tomas LavoieD16:12-0.20Andrew PeekeD17:54-0.76Liam O'BrienF11:53-0.93Austin PoganskiF12:27-1.00Cam HebigF12:21-1.32
0.50.5111.51.50Daniil ButF10:10+0.55Yegor BorikovF10:27+0.54Clayton KellerF9:21+0.35Tij IginlaF12:25+0.35MacKenzie WeegarD14:48+0.33Vadim MorozF9:31+0.32Dylan GuentherF12:11+0.29Anders LeeF11:13+0.28Nick SchmaltzF9:10+0.17Zac JonesD15:39+0.13Maveric LamoureuxD13:09+0.02Logan CooleyF12:02+0.00Tomas LavoieD14:22-0.11Mikhail SergachevD13:47-0.35Andrew PeekeD13:11-0.42Austin PoganskiF9:36-0.81Liam O'BrienF10:06-0.86Cam HebigF10:32-1.25
0.250.250.50.50.750.75110Clayton KellerF5:11+0.92Mikhail SergachevD5:25+0.90Logan CooleyF5:18+0.90Dylan GuentherF5:10+0.90Nick SchmaltzF5:05+0.90Tij IginlaF2:38+0.20Daniil ButF2:39+0.19Anders LeeF2:24+0.19MacKenzie WeegarD2:24+0.19Vadim MorozF2:08+0.18Yegor BorikovF0:36+0.00Maveric LamoureuxD0:07+0.00
0.250.250.50.50Zac JonesD0:50-0.01Yegor BorikovF1:32-0.03Liam O'BrienF1:47-0.07Daniil ButF0:37-0.09Cam HebigF1:41-0.09Logan CooleyF1:19-0.10Tomas LavoieD1:10-0.10Mikhail SergachevD3:50-0.11MacKenzie WeegarD3:36-0.13Nick SchmaltzF3:15-0.13Dylan GuentherF2:13-0.17Austin PoganskiF2:43-0.21Maveric LamoureuxD2:03-0.21Andrew PeekeD3:36-0.34
LAK
against for own net ice time
0.50.5111.51.50Artemi PanarinF21:56+0.90Adrian KempeF22:28+0.70Quinton ByfieldF17:04+0.58Brandt ClarkeD24:38+0.44Jared WoolleyD14:08+0.42Andre LeeF17:59+0.22Martin ChromiakF11:25+0.06Jared WrightF13:04+0.04Koehn ZiemmerF9:30-0.08Francesco PinelliF9:52-0.31Samuel HeleniusF13:22-0.33Mikey AndersonD19:58-0.35Taylor WardF14:28-0.51Joel EdmundsonD18:41-0.60Kenny ConnorsF18:19-0.62Cody CeciD16:29-0.62Liam LefebvreF13:55-0.63Kirill KirsanovD17:13-0.87
0.50.5110Jared WoolleyD13:15+0.54Artemi PanarinF14:10+0.47Jared WrightF10:06+0.47Andre LeeF8:30+0.45Adrian KempeF13:21+0.43Cody CeciD12:10+0.36Quinton ByfieldF8:43+0.35Brandt ClarkeD15:17+0.22Samuel HeleniusF10:36+0.17Martin ChromiakF9:36-0.02Koehn ZiemmerF9:02-0.06Mikey AndersonD14:49-0.23Kirill KirsanovD15:01-0.29Francesco PinelliF7:44-0.32Kenny ConnorsF12:48-0.33Joel EdmundsonD13:59-0.42Taylor WardF10:54-0.61Liam LefebvreF11:45-0.73
0.250.250.50.50Artemi PanarinF5:36+0.43Adrian KempeF5:25+0.35Andre LeeF5:24+0.35Brandt ClarkeD5:43+0.34Quinton ByfieldF4:31+0.31Kenny ConnorsF1:43+0.14Joel EdmundsonD1:39+0.11Liam LefebvreF1:45+0.10Taylor WardF1:42+0.10Martin ChromiakF1:18+0.10Samuel HeleniusF0:13+0.08Francesco PinelliF1:07+0.02Mikey AndersonD0:36+0.00Koehn ZiemmerF0:20+0.00Cody CeciD0:16+0.00Kirill KirsanovD0:15+0.00Jared WrightF0:12+0.00
0.250.250.50.50.750.75110Taylor WardF1:26+0.00Francesco PinelliF0:53-0.01Quinton ByfieldF2:05-0.08Adrian KempeF1:55-0.08Brandt ClarkeD2:34-0.11Jared WoolleyD0:45-0.12Mikey AndersonD4:33-0.12Joel EdmundsonD1:57-0.29Jared WrightF2:46-0.43Kenny ConnorsF2:04-0.43Andre LeeF2:19-0.58Samuel HeleniusF2:09-0.58Kirill KirsanovD1:57-0.58Cody CeciD3:55-0.99

Lines & pairs

all · whole game · this game
most-used units · when they played · on-ice xG lines are by strength · 5v5 shown
strength
period
sort
How to read this

The units that actually played together most at the chosen strength — forward lines and defence pairs at 5v5, the whole group on the ice on the power play or the kill — each with when it was on the ice at that strength across the game clock (period and power-play bands behind the strip) and on-ice xG against / for while the whole unit was out, at that strength only. Sorted by time together; pick another key to re-order, and a name opens the player's page. Pick a period and the strip veils the rest of the game while the bars re-lay for that period alone, on the whole game's scale.

UTA
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF
LAK
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF

Matchups

5v5 · this game
every skater against every skater, goalies first · hover a cell
order
UTA won the chances LAK won them full colour = a margin of 0.75 xG or more taller = more time together (full height at 12:00) on together, dead even never on together G = goalie: his row or column is each skater against the whole other team
KuemperWardConnorsLefebvreKempePanarinByfieldLeeHeleniusWrightChromiakPinelliZiemmerEdmundsonKirsanovAndersonClarkeCeciWoolleyGL1L2L3L4D1D2D3GL1L2L3L4D1D2D3VejmelkaLeeGuentherCooleyMorozIginlaBorikovO'BrienPoganskiHebigSchmaltzKellerButJonesLavoieWeegarSergachevPeekeLamoureux
How to read this

Rows are UTA's skaters, columns LAK's, grouped the way they played: forward lines (L1 = the line that played together most), then defence pairs. Each cell covers the five-on-five time those two players shared the ice. Its colour is the club that out-chanced the other in that time — expected goals for minus against — and the stronger the colour, the bigger the margin. Each cell is also raised: the taller the block, the longer the two shared the ice, up to full height at 12:00 of five-on-five time. A grey cell means they met and it came out even; an open, flat one means they never met at five-on-five.

The first row and column are the goalies. A goalie is in net for every five-on-five second, so a skater's cell against the other side's goalie is all of that skater's five-on-five time against that team — the rest of his row or column added up — and the corner where the two goalies meet is the game's five-on-five. Those cells cover far more time than any pair, so they reach full colour sooner and stand at full height, a wall along each edge of the grid. A goalie change adds a second goalie row or column, each covering his own time.

Linemates share the ice, so a line against a line reads as a block. The margin is a total, not a rate: a long matchup has room to build a big gap and a thirty-second one does not — which is what the height is there to show: a tall, strong cell is the game's story; a short, strong one is a moment. Hover (or tap) any cell for the exact time together, the xG each way, attempts and goals. One game — a strong cell is what happened, not what would happen again.