xJawn NHL expected goals

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VAN 1 – 3 CGY

Vancouver Canucks at Calgary Flames

Final · Sep 22, 2026
2026-27 · preseason

Exhibition game. Split squads and tryouts, an audition rather than a game plan, and one game of anything is noise. None of it feeds the site's ratings, season tables or game predictions — preseason is kept out of every model here by construction.

On the ice
Adjusts with rink filters

Strength and score are read from VAN's side, the same minutes at both ends: PP = VAN power play · PK = CGY power play · Leading = VAN ahead · ST = each club's own power play.

VAN attacks◀ all strengths
CGY attacksall strengths ▶
× goal• on net ◦ missed· blocked hover any attempt for the shooter, its xG and everything the model saw
How to read this map

One rink, both teams: VAN attacks the left net, CGY the right. Every attempt is a Gaussian bump of height = its model xG. The controls switch the surface (xG heatmap ↔ vs league) and the markers; vs league compares this game against a typical NHL team-game under the same filter (2026-27 regular season, 283 games), so a 5v5 view is measured against league 5v5.

A strength or score filter is read from VAN's side and mirrored for CGY: “VAN PP” shows VAN's power-play attempts on the left and CGY's shorthanded attempts on the right — the same minutes of the game at both ends. Empty-net attempts are excluded unless you include them. The Player control narrows the map and the rows beneath it to the attempts by either club while one player was on the ice (for a goalie, while he was in net); his own attempts wear a blue ring. vs league switches off while a player is picked — the league baseline is a whole team-game, which one player's slice is not. Hover any attempt for the shooter, the result, its xG, and the inputs behind it: clock, strength, score, shot type, distance, angle, handedness, rush/rebound, what happened just before, and the goalie or the blocker.

What each side produced

all strengths · this game
VAN CGY
bars share a scale within each row · the longer bar is the row's leader
Goalson the map
1 3
Expected goals
1.18 4.08
xG%share of xG
22% 78%
High-dangerattempts ≥ 0.20 xG
1 2
Shots on goal
9 32
Attempts
23 82
xG by period · whole game 1st0.4–0.92nd0.4–2.43rd0.4–0.7

The Flames beat the Canucks 3–1 at home, and the chances agreed: CGY out-created VAN 4.1–1.2 in expected goals. The Flames power play made 0.8 xG on 14 attempts.

Counts come from the shot table behind the map: empty-net attempts and the shootout are excluded, so the goals here can trail the official final by an empty-netter or the shootout's deciding goal. Same numbers as the post-game cards.

As the game went

all situations · this game
cumulative VAN − CGY xG · bands = power plays · lines = goals
1ST2ND3RD+1−1+2−2+3−3VAN AHEAD ▲CGY AHEAD ▼
How to read this

One line: cumulative VAN minus CGY expected goals. Above zero VAN is ahead on chances, below zero CGY is. Shaded bands are power plays in the side's colour; vertical lines are goals.

Goals

this game
xG = the chance, before it went in
TeamScorerPeriodTimexG
VANArshdeep Bains 3rd6:22 0.23
CGYJoel Farabee 2nd15:00 PP 0.19
CGYMatt Coronato 2nd17:30 0.07
CGYSamuel Honzek 2nd18:58 0.36
Who

Skaters

all · whole game · this game
on-ice xG for and against, his own attempts, the net
strength
period
sort
How to read this

Every skater: on-ice xG against to the left of zero, for to the right, his own attempts as the solid bar, a hash at the net. The slim track under the name is ice time. The chart opens sorted by net, best first; pick another key to re-order it, and click the same key again to flip it. A name opens the player's page. Pick a period and every bar re-lays for that period alone on the same scale as the whole game, so the three periods add up to it; a skater who did not play in it fades to the bottom.

VAN
against for own net ice time
0.50.5111.51.5220Trey Fix-WolanskyF13:03-0.10Aatu RätyF16:09-0.22Benjamin BerardF12:24-0.27Yaroslav BryzgalovF10:40-0.31Riley PattersonF15:53-0.36Ilya SafonovF13:26-0.44Arshdeep BainsF19:20-0.51Tom WillanderD21:29-0.69Kirill KudryavtsevD17:59-0.72Brooks RogowskiF10:15-0.74Guillaume BriseboisD17:18-0.84Adam NovotnyF13:48-0.87Matt StienburgF15:24-1.03Cole ClaytonD16:07-1.07Braeden CootesF19:36-1.22Victor ManciniD21:51-1.29Jimmy SchuldtD21:05-1.43Ty MuellerF17:31-1.58
0.50.5110Trey Fix-WolanskyF10:43-0.10Aatu RätyF12:55-0.21Benjamin BerardF12:24-0.27Yaroslav BryzgalovF10:40-0.31Tom WillanderD17:16-0.52Arshdeep BainsF13:53-0.52Cole ClaytonD13:52-0.52Riley PattersonF13:53-0.55Ilya SafonovF11:32-0.63Guillaume BriseboisD13:42-0.71Kirill KudryavtsevD15:15-0.74Brooks RogowskiF10:15-0.74Braeden CootesF15:32-0.81Matt StienburgF11:39-0.84Adam NovotnyF11:32-0.87Ty MuellerF11:59-0.96Victor ManciniD18:53-1.01Jimmy SchuldtD19:05-1.11
0.250.250Riley PattersonF2:00+0.19Ty MuellerF1:59+0.19Matt StienburgF1:55+0.19Ilya SafonovF1:54+0.19Kirill KudryavtsevD1:47+0.19Tom WillanderD2:32+0.00Arshdeep BainsF2:22+0.00Trey Fix-WolanskyF2:20+0.00Braeden CootesF2:19+0.00Adam NovotnyF2:16+0.00Aatu RätyF0:06+0.00
0.250.250.50.50.750.750Kirill KudryavtsevD0:14+0.00Tom WillanderD1:41-0.17Arshdeep BainsF2:05-0.19Aatu RätyF2:08-0.21Braeden CootesF1:02-0.24Jimmy SchuldtD2:00-0.32Guillaume BriseboisD2:36-0.33Cole ClaytonD1:32-0.37Matt StienburgF1:50-0.38Victor ManciniD1:58-0.48Ty MuellerF2:50-0.64
CGY
against for own net ice time
0.50.5111.51.5220Maksim TsyplakovF14:40+1.91Simon NemecD21:27+1.69Zayne ParekhD19:00+1.53Joel FarabeeF16:22+1.24Martin PospisilF12:38+1.15Adam KlapkaF12:34+1.13Kevin BahlD21:34+0.82Matt CoronatoF15:24+0.75Mikael BacklundF16:38+0.74Connor ZaryF14:27+0.68Morgan FrostF15:06+0.60Matvei GridinF14:37+0.58Jacob MiddletonD17:03+0.56Samuel HonzekF14:55+0.54Ryan StromeF16:02+0.34Yan KuznetsovD17:39+0.24Zach WhitecloudD18:49+0.16Yegor SharangovichF15:24+0.07
0.50.5111.51.50Maksim TsyplakovF12:40+1.52Simon NemecD17:41+1.27Martin PospisilF11:33+1.15Adam KlapkaF12:34+1.13Kevin BahlD18:59+0.98Zayne ParekhD15:42+0.94Joel FarabeeF12:12+0.79Mikael BacklundF13:35+0.71Jacob MiddletonD13:55+0.58Samuel HonzekF11:58+0.51Yan KuznetsovD15:17+0.44Zach WhitecloudD16:29+0.35Matt CoronatoF12:31+0.35Morgan FrostF12:15+0.20Ryan StromeF12:15+0.17Matvei GridinF12:02+0.16Connor ZaryF11:28+0.10Yegor SharangovichF12:13+0.05
0.250.250.50.50Joel FarabeeF3:00+0.45Zayne ParekhD2:35+0.42Matvei GridinF2:35+0.42Simon NemecD2:22+0.41Connor ZaryF2:16+0.40Yegor SharangovichF2:10+0.40Matt CoronatoF2:22+0.40Morgan FrostF2:20+0.40Ryan StromeF1:59+0.38Maksim TsyplakovF1:59+0.38Kevin BahlD0:27+0.03Mikael BacklundF0:25+0.03Samuel HonzekF0:21+0.03Zach WhitecloudD0:02+0.00Yan KuznetsovD0:02+0.00
0.250.250Mikael BacklundF2:38+0.00Samuel HonzekF2:36+0.00Yan KuznetsovD1:51+0.00Zach WhitecloudD1:49+0.00Joel FarabeeF1:10+0.00Martin PospisilF1:05+0.00Simon NemecD0:53+0.00Jacob MiddletonD2:25-0.19Kevin BahlD1:37-0.19Ryan StromeF0:36-0.19Yegor SharangovichF0:32-0.19

Lines & pairs

all · whole game · this game
most-used units · when they played · on-ice xG lines are by strength · 5v5 shown
strength
period
sort
How to read this

The units that actually played together most at the chosen strength — forward lines and defence pairs at 5v5, the whole group on the ice on the power play or the kill — each with when it was on the ice at that strength across the game clock (period and power-play bands behind the strip) and on-ice xG against / for while the whole unit was out, at that strength only. Sorted by time together; pick another key to re-order, and a name opens the player's page. Pick a period and the strip veils the rest of the game while the bars re-lay for that period alone, on the whole game's scale.

VAN
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF
CGY
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF

Matchups

5v5 · this game
every skater against every skater, goalies first · hover a cell
order
VAN won the chances CGY won them full colour = a margin of 0.75 xG or more taller = more time together (full height at 12:00) on together, dead even never on together G = goalie: his row or column is each skater against the whole other team
WolfFrostCoronatoGridinBacklundFarabeeHonzekStromeSharangovichZaryPospisilKlapkaTsyplakovBahlNemecWhitecloudKuznetsovMiddletonParekhGL1L2L3L4D1D2D3GL1L2L3L4D1D2D3LankinenFix-WolanskyCootesNovotnyBerardPattersonBryzgalovStienburgRätyBainsSafonovMuellerRogowskiSchuldtManciniBriseboisWillanderClaytonKudryavtsev
How to read this

Rows are VAN's skaters, columns CGY's, grouped the way they played: forward lines (L1 = the line that played together most), then defence pairs. Each cell covers the five-on-five time those two players shared the ice. Its colour is the club that out-chanced the other in that time — expected goals for minus against — and the stronger the colour, the bigger the margin. Each cell is also raised: the taller the block, the longer the two shared the ice, up to full height at 12:00 of five-on-five time. A grey cell means they met and it came out even; an open, flat one means they never met at five-on-five.

The first row and column are the goalies. A goalie is in net for every five-on-five second, so a skater's cell against the other side's goalie is all of that skater's five-on-five time against that team — the rest of his row or column added up — and the corner where the two goalies meet is the game's five-on-five. Those cells cover far more time than any pair, so they reach full colour sooner and stand at full height, a wall along each edge of the grid. A goalie change adds a second goalie row or column, each covering his own time.

Linemates share the ice, so a line against a line reads as a block. The margin is a total, not a rate: a long matchup has room to build a big gap and a thirty-second one does not — which is what the height is there to show: a tall, strong cell is the game's story; a short, strong one is a moment. Hover (or tap) any cell for the exact time together, the xG each way, attempts and goals. One game — a strong cell is what happened, not what would happen again.