xJawn NHL expected goals

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Final / SO · Sep 22, 2026
2026-27 · preseason

Exhibition game. Split squads and tryouts, an audition rather than a game plan, and one game of anything is noise. None of it feeds the site's ratings, season tables or game predictions — preseason is kept out of every model here by construction.

On the ice
Adjusts with rink filters

Strength and score are read from VGK's side, the same minutes at both ends: PP = VGK power play · PK = SJS power play · Leading = VGK ahead · ST = each club's own power play.

VGK attacks◀ all strengths
SJS attacksall strengths ▶
× goal• on net ◦ missed· blocked hover any attempt for the shooter, its xG and everything the model saw
How to read this map

One rink, both teams: VGK attacks the left net, SJS the right. Every attempt is a Gaussian bump of height = its model xG. The controls switch the surface (xG heatmap ↔ vs league) and the markers; vs league compares this game against a typical NHL team-game under the same filter (2026-27 regular season, 283 games), so a 5v5 view is measured against league 5v5.

A strength or score filter is read from VGK's side and mirrored for SJS: “VGK PP” shows VGK's power-play attempts on the left and SJS's shorthanded attempts on the right — the same minutes of the game at both ends. Empty-net attempts are excluded unless you include them. The Player control narrows the map and the rows beneath it to the attempts by either club while one player was on the ice (for a goalie, while he was in net); his own attempts wear a blue ring. vs league switches off while a player is picked — the league baseline is a whole team-game, which one player's slice is not. Hover any attempt for the shooter, the result, its xG, and the inputs behind it: clock, strength, score, shot type, distance, angle, handedness, rush/rebound, what happened just before, and the goalie or the blocker.

What each side produced

all strengths · this game
VGK SJS
bars share a scale within each row · the longer bar is the row's leader
Goalson the map
1 1
Expected goals
1.71 3.54
xG%share of xG
33% 67%
High-dangerattempts ≥ 0.20 xG
1 2
Shots on goal
23 29
Attempts
47 63
xG by period · whole game 1st0.6–0.72nd0.6–1.13rd0.6–0.7OT0.0–1.0

The Golden Knights beat the Sharks 2–1 in a shootout on the road despite being out-created 3.5–1.7 in expected goals. That is a finishing-and-goaltending win. At 5v5: VGK 1.7, SJS 2.1.

Counts come from the shot table behind the map: empty-net attempts and the shootout are excluded, so the goals here can trail the official final by an empty-netter or the shootout's deciding goal. Same numbers as the post-game cards.

As the game went

all situations · this game
cumulative VGK − SJS xG · bands = power plays · lines = goals
1ST2ND3RDOT+0.5−0.5+1−1+1.5−1.5+2−2VGK AHEAD ▲SJS AHEAD ▼
How to read this

One line: cumulative VGK minus SJS expected goals. Above zero VGK is ahead on chances, below zero SJS is. Shaded bands are power plays in the side's colour; vertical lines are goals.

Goals

this game
xG = the chance, before it went in
TeamScorerPeriodTimexG
VGKAlexander Holtz 3rd8:22 0.09
SJSMichael Misa 3rd4:18 PP 0.17
Who

Skaters

all · whole game · this game
on-ice xG for and against, his own attempts, the net
strength
period
sort
How to read this

Every skater: on-ice xG against to the left of zero, for to the right, his own attempts as the solid bar, a hash at the net. The slim track under the name is ice time. The chart opens sorted by net, best first; pick another key to re-order it, and click the same key again to flip it. A name opens the player's page. Pick a period and every bar re-lays for that period alone on the same scale as the whole game, so the three periods add up to it; a skater who did not play in it fades to the bottom.

VGK
against for own net ice time
0.50.5111.51.50Tanner LaczynskiF17:11+0.56Alexander HoltzF19:11+0.23Jonas RondbjergF18:39-0.03Jeremy DaviesD16:53-0.06Mitchell McLainF9:35-0.09Jakub DemekF12:13-0.21Joe FlemingF9:09-0.21Dylan CoghlanD17:30-0.28Alexander WeiermairF11:45-0.29Mathieu CatafordF13:59-0.31Jackson HallumF17:05-0.42Ville HeinolaD25:14-0.42Juho PiiparinenD20:06-0.48Antti TuomistoD24:43-0.66Braeden BowmanF17:44-0.85Marc GatcombF16:53-0.88Adam GinningD22:09-1.00Matyas SapovalivF20:47-1.43
0.50.5110Alexander HoltzF17:35+0.83Tanner LaczynskiF14:35+0.79Jonas RondbjergF16:00+0.42Jackson HallumF13:22+0.09Ville HeinolaD21:57+0.09Dylan CoghlanD15:30+0.04Jeremy DaviesD16:47-0.07Mitchell McLainF9:35-0.09Antti TuomistoD20:28-0.12Joe FlemingF9:09-0.21Jakub DemekF11:52-0.22Alexander WeiermairF11:45-0.29Mathieu CatafordF13:59-0.31Juho PiiparinenD18:30-0.32Adam GinningD17:55-0.46Matyas SapovalivF17:05-0.71Marc GatcombF15:20-0.75Braeden BowmanF16:06-0.83

No power play time for VGK in this game.

0.250.250.50.50.750.750Jakub DemekF0:21+0.01Jeremy DaviesD0:06+0.01Juho PiiparinenD0:04+0.01Braeden BowmanF0:33+0.00Tanner LaczynskiF0:53-0.06Matyas SapovalivF2:06-0.13Ville HeinolaD1:37-0.13Dylan CoghlanD1:35-0.13Marc GatcombF1:33-0.13Jackson HallumF2:13-0.34Jonas RondbjergF2:29-0.43Antti TuomistoD3:59-0.50Adam GinningD3:58-0.50
SJS
against for own net ice time
0.50.5111.51.5220Luca CagnoniD22:43+1.57Ivar StenbergF22:17+1.50Alexander WennbergF20:45+1.33Dmitry OrlovD19:54+1.02Michael MisaF18:37+0.70Collin GrafF15:30+0.61Patrick GilesF10:53+0.39Nolan AllanD19:01+0.33Igor ChernyshovF19:07+0.32Andre GasseauF13:46+0.30Carson WetschF11:20+0.23Ethan CardwellF15:49+0.16Tyler ToffoliF16:01+0.09Jacob TroubaD19:10+0.08Jimmy HuntingtonF13:29+0.03Eric PohlkampD22:04-0.05Filip BystedtF16:58-0.50Phillip SinnD19:01-0.66
0.50.5111.51.50Luca CagnoniD17:09+0.84Dmitry OrlovD17:26+0.74Ivar StenbergF16:18+0.51Alexander WennbergF15:06+0.47Patrick GilesF10:53+0.39Collin GrafF14:42+0.34Nolan AllanD19:01+0.33Carson WetschF11:20+0.23Andre GasseauF12:09+0.22Michael MisaF13:34+0.05Jacob TroubaD18:39+0.04Jimmy HuntingtonF12:56+0.03Tyler ToffoliF14:02-0.03Ethan CardwellF15:24-0.11Igor ChernyshovF14:04-0.33Eric PohlkampD19:41-0.44Filip BystedtF16:05-0.48Phillip SinnD19:01-0.66
0.250.250.50.50.750.750Michael MisaF4:30+0.63Igor ChernyshovF4:29+0.63Ivar StenbergF4:29+0.63Alexander WennbergF3:52+0.46Luca CagnoniD4:03+0.36Dmitry OrlovD1:21+0.26Jacob TroubaD0:15+0.00Tyler ToffoliF1:10-0.01Eric PohlkampD1:10-0.01Andre GasseauF0:54-0.01Filip BystedtF0:53-0.01

No penalty kill time for SJS in this game.

Lines & pairs

all · whole game · this game
most-used units · when they played · on-ice xG lines are by strength · 5v5 shown
strength
period
sort
How to read this

The units that actually played together most at the chosen strength — forward lines and defence pairs at 5v5, the whole group on the ice on the power play or the kill — each with when it was on the ice at that strength across the game clock (period and power-play bands behind the strip) and on-ice xG against / for while the whole unit was out, at that strength only. Sorted by time together; pick another key to re-order, and a name opens the player's page. Pick a period and the strip veils the rest of the game while the bars re-lay for that period alone, on the whole game's scale.

VGK
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF
SJS
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF

Matchups

5v5 · this game
every skater against every skater, goalies first · hover a cell
order
VGK won the chances SJS won them full colour = a margin of 0.75 xG or more taller = more time together (full height at 12:00) on together, dead even never on together G = goalie: his row or column is each skater against the whole other team
AskarovWennbergGrafStenbergToffoliChernyshovMisaHuntingtonCardwellBystedtGilesGasseauWetschPohlkampSinnTroubaAllanOrlovCagnoniGL1L2L3L4D1D2D3GL1L2L3L4D1D2D3HartSapovalivGatcombBowmanLaczynskiRondbjergHoltzHallumDemekCatafordMcLainFlemingWeiermairGinningPiiparinenHeinolaTuomistoDaviesCoghlan
How to read this

Rows are VGK's skaters, columns SJS's, grouped the way they played: forward lines (L1 = the line that played together most), then defence pairs. Each cell covers the five-on-five time those two players shared the ice. Its colour is the club that out-chanced the other in that time — expected goals for minus against — and the stronger the colour, the bigger the margin. Each cell is also raised: the taller the block, the longer the two shared the ice, up to full height at 12:00 of five-on-five time. A grey cell means they met and it came out even; an open, flat one means they never met at five-on-five.

The first row and column are the goalies. A goalie is in net for every five-on-five second, so a skater's cell against the other side's goalie is all of that skater's five-on-five time against that team — the rest of his row or column added up — and the corner where the two goalies meet is the game's five-on-five. Those cells cover far more time than any pair, so they reach full colour sooner and stand at full height, a wall along each edge of the grid. A goalie change adds a second goalie row or column, each covering his own time.

Linemates share the ice, so a line against a line reads as a block. The margin is a total, not a rate: a long matchup has room to build a big gap and a thirty-second one does not — which is what the height is there to show: a tall, strong cell is the game's story; a short, strong one is a moment. Hover (or tap) any cell for the exact time together, the xG each way, attempts and goals. One game — a strong cell is what happened, not what would happen again.