xJawn NHL expected goals

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Final · Sep 23, 2026
2026-27 · preseason

Exhibition game. Split squads and tryouts, an audition rather than a game plan, and one game of anything is noise. None of it feeds the site's ratings, season tables or game predictions — preseason is kept out of every model here by construction.

On the ice
Adjusts with rink filters

Strength and score are read from TOR's side, the same minutes at both ends: PP = TOR power play · PK = OTT power play · Leading = TOR ahead · ST = each club's own power play.

TOR attacks◀ all strengths
OTT attacksall strengths ▶
× goal• on net ◦ missed· blocked hover any attempt for the shooter, its xG and everything the model saw
How to read this map

One rink, both teams: TOR attacks the left net, OTT the right. Every attempt is a Gaussian bump of height = its model xG. The controls switch the surface (xG heatmap ↔ vs league) and the markers; vs league compares this game against a typical NHL team-game under the same filter (2026-27 regular season, 283 games), so a 5v5 view is measured against league 5v5.

A strength or score filter is read from TOR's side and mirrored for OTT: “TOR PP” shows TOR's power-play attempts on the left and OTT's shorthanded attempts on the right — the same minutes of the game at both ends. Empty-net attempts are excluded unless you include them. The Player control narrows the map and the rows beneath it to the attempts by either club while one player was on the ice (for a goalie, while he was in net); his own attempts wear a blue ring. vs league switches off while a player is picked — the league baseline is a whole team-game, which one player's slice is not. Hover any attempt for the shooter, the result, its xG, and the inputs behind it: clock, strength, score, shot type, distance, angle, handedness, rush/rebound, what happened just before, and the goalie or the blocker.

What each side produced

all strengths · this game
TOR OTT
bars share a scale within each row · the longer bar is the row's leader
Goalson the map
3 2
Expected goals
3.03 1.38
xG%share of xG
69% 31%
High-dangerattempts ≥ 0.20 xG
2 0
Shots on goal
23 21
Attempts
43 40
xG by period · whole game 1st0.7–0.62nd1.1–0.53rd1.2–0.3

The Maple Leafs beat the Senators 4–2 on the road, and the chances agreed: TOR out-created OTT 3.0–1.4 in expected goals. The Maple Leafs power play made 1.3 xG on 11 attempts.

Counts come from the shot table behind the map: empty-net attempts and the shootout are excluded, so the goals here can trail the official final by an empty-netter or the shootout's deciding goal. Same numbers as the post-game cards.

As the game went

all situations · this game
cumulative TOR − OTT xG · bands = power plays · lines = goals
1ST2ND3RD+0.5−0.5+1−1+1.5−1.5+2−2TOR AHEAD ▲OTT AHEAD ▼
How to read this

One line: cumulative TOR minus OTT expected goals. Above zero TOR is ahead on chances, below zero OTT is. Shaded bands are power plays in the side's colour; vertical lines are goals.

Goals

this game
xG = the chance, before it went in
TeamScorerPeriodTimexG
TORHenrik Rybinski 2nd3:51 PP 0.04
TORSteven Lorentz 3rd10:01 0.16
TORRyan Tverberg 3rd15:43 0.10
TORTeddy Blueger 3rd19:52 EN 0.49
OTTDylan Cozens 2nd6:18 0.17
OTTHoyt Stanley 3rd10:42 0.14
Who

Skaters

all · whole game · this game
on-ice xG for and against, his own attempts, the net
strength
period
sort
How to read this

Every skater: on-ice xG against to the left of zero, for to the right, his own attempts as the solid bar, a hash at the net. The slim track under the name is ice time. The chart opens sorted by net, best first; pick another key to re-order it, and click the same key again to flip it. A name opens the player's page. Pick a period and every bar re-lays for that period alone on the same scale as the whole game, so the three periods add up to it; a skater who did not play in it fades to the bottom.

TOR
against for own net ice time
0.50.5111.51.50Tinus Luc KoblarF15:39+1.01Emil AndraeD19:35+0.90Vinni LettieriF19:44+0.76Miroslav HolinkaF15:40+0.69Brendan BrissonF14:52+0.65Henrik RybinskiF15:28+0.62Ben DanfordD21:40+0.57Teddy BluegerF16:51+0.56Ryan TverbergF15:28+0.54Steven LorentzF16:41+0.50Luke HaymesF12:57+0.42Brandon DuhaimeF13:11+0.38Nick BlankenburgD14:01+0.37Marshall RifaiD22:32+0.32Jacob QuillanF16:01+0.29Philippe MyersD19:40+0.10Landon SimF9:00-0.06Blake SmithD17:00-0.21
0.250.250.50.50.750.75110Ben DanfordD19:11+0.53Steven LorentzF13:54+0.52Teddy BluegerF14:35+0.51Brandon DuhaimeF10:41+0.40Marshall RifaiD21:06+0.39Emil AndraeD13:15+0.33Tinus Luc KoblarF12:20+0.28Brendan BrissonF11:59+0.26Philippe MyersD15:57+0.17Ryan TverbergF10:20+0.15Vinni LettieriF15:59+0.08Landon SimF9:00-0.06Jacob QuillanF10:57-0.10Henrik RybinskiF12:23-0.11Luke HaymesF10:24-0.11Blake SmithD15:54-0.12Miroslav HolinkaF12:22-0.17Nick BlankenburgD11:38-0.19
0.250.250.50.50.750.75110Miroslav HolinkaF3:18+0.87Tinus Luc KoblarF3:19+0.72Henrik RybinskiF3:05+0.72Vinni LettieriF2:51+0.72Emil AndraeD3:28+0.61Nick BlankenburgD2:23+0.56Ryan TverbergF2:46+0.53Jacob QuillanF2:38+0.53Luke HaymesF2:33+0.53Brendan BrissonF2:53+0.39Ben DanfordD0:40+0.13Philippe MyersD0:22+0.04Teddy BluegerF0:41+0.04Brandon DuhaimeF0:40+0.04Steven LorentzF0:38+0.04Blake SmithD0:04+0.00Marshall RifaiD0:16-0.00
0.250.250Teddy BluegerF1:23+0.00Emil AndraeD1:58-0.05Steven LorentzF1:57-0.07Brandon DuhaimeF1:38-0.07Marshall RifaiD0:58-0.07Ben DanfordD1:37-0.09Blake SmithD1:02-0.09Philippe MyersD2:27-0.12Jacob QuillanF1:32-0.14Ryan TverbergF1:28-0.14
OTT
against for own net ice time
0.50.5111.51.50Tomas HamaraD19:16+0.31Fabian ZetterlundF15:34+0.23Stephen HallidayF15:30+0.11Hoyt StanleyD19:30-0.04Claude GirouxF18:21-0.09Blake MontgomeryF13:16-0.11Nick CousinsF12:06-0.20Xavier BourgaultF13:21-0.22Samuel BlaisF11:31-0.33Ryan SuzukiF10:04-0.38Matthew AndonovskiD15:23-0.46Tyler BoucherF12:26-0.49Ridly GreigF17:52-0.63Dylan CozensF19:19-0.64William EklundF20:16-0.64Djibril ToureD19:46-0.90Ben HuttonD22:31-1.01Cameron CrottyD18:25-1.40
0.250.250.50.50.750.75110Claude GirouxF11:43+0.44Tomas HamaraD17:16+0.22Fabian ZetterlundF12:29+0.12Hoyt StanleyD17:47+0.09Stephen HallidayF13:39+0.02Ridly GreigF11:05-0.00Blake MontgomeryF13:01-0.11Nick CousinsF9:45-0.16Xavier BourgaultF13:19-0.22Dylan CozensF13:52-0.23William EklundF14:26-0.23Djibril ToureD15:28-0.28Matthew AndonovskiD13:05-0.32Samuel BlaisF11:31-0.33Cameron CrottyD15:23-0.37Ryan SuzukiF10:04-0.38Ben HuttonD17:40-0.44Tyler BoucherF10:26-0.58
0.250.250Ridly GreigF1:50+0.14Ben HuttonD1:58+0.12Dylan CozensF1:58+0.12Claude GirouxF1:56+0.12William EklundF1:56+0.12Fabian ZetterlundF1:54+0.12Nick CousinsF2:03+0.09Tyler BoucherF2:00+0.09Tomas HamaraD2:00+0.09Stephen HallidayF1:51+0.09Hoyt StanleyD0:15+0.00Blake MontgomeryF0:15+0.00Xavier BourgaultF0:02+0.00Matthew AndonovskiD0:02+0.00
0.50.5110Fabian ZetterlundF0:05+0.00Hoyt StanleyD1:28-0.13Nick CousinsF0:18-0.13Matthew AndonovskiD2:16-0.14William EklundF2:48-0.53Dylan CozensF2:35-0.53Djibril ToureD4:18-0.61Claude GirouxF3:36-0.64Ben HuttonD1:47-0.68Ridly GreigF3:51-0.77Cameron CrottyD3:02-1.03

Lines & pairs

all · whole game · this game
most-used units · when they played · on-ice xG lines are by strength · 5v5 shown
strength
period
sort
How to read this

The units that actually played together most at the chosen strength — forward lines and defence pairs at 5v5, the whole group on the ice on the power play or the kill — each with when it was on the ice at that strength across the game clock (period and power-play bands behind the strip) and on-ice xG against / for while the whole unit was out, at that strength only. Sorted by time together; pick another key to re-order, and a name opens the player's page. Pick a period and the strip veils the rest of the game while the bars re-lay for that period alone, on the whole game's scale.

TOR
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF
OTT
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF

Matchups

5v5 · this game
every skater against every skater, goalies first · hover a cell
order
TOR won the chances OTT won them full colour = a margin of 0.75 xG or more taller = more time together (full height at 12:00) on together, dead even never on together G = goalie: his row or column is each skater against the whole other team
UllmarkZetterlundCozensEklundGirouxCousinsHallidaySuzukiBourgaultMontgomeryBlaisGreigBoucherHuttonCrottyHamaraToureStanleyAndonovskiGL1L2L3L4D1D2D3GL1L2L3L4D1D2D3StolarzLettieriBrissonLuc KoblarBluegerLorentzDuhaimeTverbergQuillanHaymesRybinskiSimHolinkaSmithDanfordRifaiBlankenburgMyersAndrae
How to read this

Rows are TOR's skaters, columns OTT's, grouped the way they played: forward lines (L1 = the line that played together most), then defence pairs. Each cell covers the five-on-five time those two players shared the ice. Its colour is the club that out-chanced the other in that time — expected goals for minus against — and the stronger the colour, the bigger the margin. Each cell is also raised: the taller the block, the longer the two shared the ice, up to full height at 12:00 of five-on-five time. A grey cell means they met and it came out even; an open, flat one means they never met at five-on-five.

The first row and column are the goalies. A goalie is in net for every five-on-five second, so a skater's cell against the other side's goalie is all of that skater's five-on-five time against that team — the rest of his row or column added up — and the corner where the two goalies meet is the game's five-on-five. Those cells cover far more time than any pair, so they reach full colour sooner and stand at full height, a wall along each edge of the grid. A goalie change adds a second goalie row or column, each covering his own time.

Linemates share the ice, so a line against a line reads as a block. The margin is a total, not a rate: a long matchup has room to build a big gap and a thirty-second one does not — which is what the height is there to show: a tall, strong cell is the game's story; a short, strong one is a moment. Hover (or tap) any cell for the exact time together, the xG each way, attempts and goals. One game — a strong cell is what happened, not what would happen again.