xJawn NHL expected goals

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BUF 2 – 3 DET

Buffalo Sabres at Detroit Red Wings

Final / OT · Sep 24, 2026
2026-27 · preseason

Exhibition game. Split squads and tryouts, an audition rather than a game plan, and one game of anything is noise. None of it feeds the site's ratings, season tables or game predictions — preseason is kept out of every model here by construction.

On the ice
Adjusts with rink filters

Strength and score are read from BUF's side, the same minutes at both ends: PP = BUF power play · PK = DET power play · Leading = BUF ahead · ST = each club's own power play.

BUF attacks◀ all strengths
DET attacksall strengths ▶
× goal• on net ◦ missed· blocked hover any attempt for the shooter, its xG and everything the model saw
How to read this map

One rink, both teams: BUF attacks the left net, DET the right. Every attempt is a Gaussian bump of height = its model xG. The controls switch the surface (xG heatmap ↔ vs league) and the markers; vs league compares this game against a typical NHL team-game under the same filter (2026-27 regular season, 283 games), so a 5v5 view is measured against league 5v5.

A strength or score filter is read from BUF's side and mirrored for DET: “BUF PP” shows BUF's power-play attempts on the left and DET's shorthanded attempts on the right — the same minutes of the game at both ends. Empty-net attempts are excluded unless you include them. The Player control narrows the map and the rows beneath it to the attempts by either club while one player was on the ice (for a goalie, while he was in net); his own attempts wear a blue ring. vs league switches off while a player is picked — the league baseline is a whole team-game, which one player's slice is not. Hover any attempt for the shooter, the result, its xG, and the inputs behind it: clock, strength, score, shot type, distance, angle, handedness, rush/rebound, what happened just before, and the goalie or the blocker.

What each side produced

all strengths · this game
BUF DET
bars share a scale within each row · the longer bar is the row's leader
Goalson the map
2 3
Expected goals
2.79 3.02
xG%share of xG
48% 52%
High-dangerattempts ≥ 0.20 xG
3 3
Shots on goal
19 26
Attempts
46 63
xG by period · whole game 1st0.6–0.72nd1.6–0.93rd0.6–1.1OT0.0–0.2

The Red Wings beat the Sabres 3–2 in overtime at home in a game the chances called about even, BUF 2.8 to DET 3.0 in expected goals. The Sabres power play made 1.3 xG on 16 attempts.

Counts come from the shot table behind the map: empty-net attempts and the shootout are excluded, so the goals here can trail the official final by an empty-netter or the shootout's deciding goal. Same numbers as the post-game cards.

As the game went

all situations · this game
cumulative BUF − DET xG · bands = power plays · lines = goals
1ST2ND3RDOT+0.5−0.5+1−1BUF AHEAD ▲DET AHEAD ▼
How to read this

One line: cumulative BUF minus DET expected goals. Above zero BUF is ahead on chances, below zero DET is. Shaded bands are power plays in the side's colour; vertical lines are goals.

Goals

this game
xG = the chance, before it went in
TeamScorerPeriodTimexG
BUFTrevor Kuntar 1st10:48 0.19
BUFJiri Kulich 2nd0:33 0.05
DETAxel Sandin-Pellikka 1st16:11 PP 0.08
DETSheldon Dries 3rd7:13 0.04
DETAlex DeBrincat OT0:33 PP 0.17
Who

Skaters

all · whole game · this game
on-ice xG for and against, his own attempts, the net
strength
period
sort
How to read this

Every skater: on-ice xG against to the left of zero, for to the right, his own attempts as the solid bar, a hash at the net. The slim track under the name is ice time. The chart opens sorted by net, best first; pick another key to re-order it, and click the same key again to flip it. A name opens the player's page. Pick a period and every bar re-lays for that period alone on the same scale as the whole game, so the three periods add up to it; a skater who did not play in it fades to the bottom.

BUF
against for own net ice time
0.50.5111.51.5220Justin DanforthF17:40+1.10Noah OstlundF23:56+0.45Jake RichardF14:19+0.37Jiri KulichF10:28+0.34Thomas BordeleauF15:40+0.29Konsta HeleniusF24:35+0.29Aidan McDonoughF10:53+0.28Matthew PecaF17:47+0.21Tyson KozakF16:58+0.19Jason PolinF10:54+0.02Trevor KuntarF10:55+0.02Ryan JohnsonD15:01-0.11Vsevolod KomarovD16:05-0.17Radim MrtkaD14:22-0.21Zach MetsaD23:17-0.32Liam ValenteF11:21-0.49Gavin McCarthyD17:34-0.73Dennis GilbertD21:55-1.45
0.50.5110Tyson KozakF10:13+0.22Justin DanforthF9:23+0.13Radim MrtkaD12:15+0.13Jake RichardF11:50+0.08Zach MetsaD14:31+0.04Jiri KulichF8:58+0.04Trevor KuntarF10:48+0.02Aidan McDonoughF8:29-0.01Ryan JohnsonD13:39-0.01Konsta HeleniusF14:20-0.02Matthew PecaF12:24-0.07Noah OstlundF14:42-0.15Vsevolod KomarovD14:53-0.17Jason PolinF7:43-0.27Dennis GilbertD15:29-0.41Liam ValenteF11:20-0.49Gavin McCarthyD16:37-0.58Thomas BordeleauF9:46-0.65
0.50.5110Konsta HeleniusF5:31+1.04Noah OstlundF5:23+1.04Justin DanforthF4:49+1.04Thomas BordeleauF5:13+0.96Matthew PecaF4:21+0.66Jiri KulichF1:13+0.39Jason PolinF3:11+0.30Tyson KozakF2:37+0.30Zach MetsaD2:30+0.30Jake RichardF2:29+0.30Aidan McDonoughF2:24+0.29Gavin McCarthyD0:05+0.00Dennis GilbertD0:02+0.00
0.50.5110Liam ValenteF0:01+0.00Thomas BordeleauF0:03-0.02Justin DanforthF2:52-0.08Jiri KulichF0:17-0.08Ryan JohnsonD0:46-0.11Gavin McCarthyD0:41-0.15Tyson KozakF3:32-0.33Radim MrtkaD1:24-0.35Matthew PecaF1:02-0.38Noah OstlundF2:28-0.45Zach MetsaD5:04-0.65Konsta HeleniusF3:21-0.74Dennis GilbertD6:20-1.04
DET
against for own net ice time
0.50.5111.51.50Lucas RaymondF21:13+1.11Alex DeBrincatF18:37+0.94Andrew CoppF21:36+0.90Michael Brandsegg-NygårdF14:14+0.86Moritz SeiderD24:21+0.82Mason AppletonF14:39+0.38Anton JohanssonD17:46+0.20Jacob BrysonD17:38+0.17John LeonardF9:28+0.12Emmitt FinnieF15:50+0.01Carter MazurF11:30+0.01William WallinderD15:21-0.08Wilmer SkoogF10:00-0.24Nate DanielsonF17:19-0.28Dominik ShineF9:29-0.39Sheldon DriesF11:52-0.49Axel Sandin-PellikkaD20:33-0.71Jacob Bernard-DockerD20:55-0.94
0.250.250.50.50.750.75110Jacob BrysonD14:04+0.80Anton JohanssonD12:19+0.67Michael Brandsegg-NygårdF12:24+0.62Emmitt FinnieF12:15+0.54Mason AppletonF12:18+0.46Alex DeBrincatF13:09+0.29Andrew CoppF12:54+0.23William WallinderD12:42+0.21Lucas RaymondF14:03+0.20Dominik ShineF6:37+0.04John LeonardF8:25-0.03Moritz SeiderD15:34-0.06Sheldon DriesF8:03-0.07Wilmer SkoogF9:46-0.24Nate DanielsonF10:34-0.27Axel Sandin-PellikkaD14:55-0.33Carter MazurF9:29-0.33Jacob Bernard-DockerD17:54-0.54
0.250.250.50.50.750.75110Lucas RaymondF5:44+0.91Andrew CoppF5:10+0.90Moritz SeiderD5:43+0.89Nate DanielsonF4:32+0.66Alex DeBrincatF4:18+0.65Carter MazurF1:54+0.34Axel Sandin-PellikkaD1:43+0.26Michael Brandsegg-NygårdF1:38+0.24Anton JohanssonD1:23+0.23Emmitt FinnieF1:06+0.23John LeonardF1:03+0.15Jacob BrysonD0:16+0.00Wilmer SkoogF0:14+0.00Mason AppletonF0:08+0.00Sheldon DriesF0:05+0.00
0.250.250.50.50.750.75110Alex DeBrincatF0:23+0.00Lucas RaymondF0:22+0.00Moritz SeiderD2:11-0.01Mason AppletonF2:13-0.08Andrew CoppF2:45-0.23William WallinderD2:32-0.29Sheldon DriesF3:18-0.42Jacob Bernard-DockerD2:57-0.42Dominik ShineF2:52-0.42Jacob BrysonD2:32-0.63Axel Sandin-PellikkaD2:49-0.64Nate DanielsonF1:24-0.67Anton JohanssonD3:01-0.69Emmitt FinnieF2:29-0.77

Lines & pairs

all · whole game · this game
most-used units · when they played · on-ice xG lines are by strength · 5v5 shown
strength
period
sort
How to read this

The units that actually played together most at the chosen strength — forward lines and defence pairs at 5v5, the whole group on the ice on the power play or the kill — each with when it was on the ice at that strength across the game clock (period and power-play bands behind the strip) and on-ice xG against / for while the whole unit was out, at that strength only. Sorted by time together; pick another key to re-order, and a name opens the player's page. Pick a period and the strip veils the rest of the game while the bars re-lay for that period alone, on the whole game's scale.

BUF
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF
DET
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF

Matchups

5v5 · this game
every skater against every skater, goalies first · hover a cell
order
BUF won the chances DET won them full colour = a margin of 0.75 xG or more taller = more time together (full height at 12:00) on together, dead even never on together G = goalie: his row or column is each skater against the whole other team
TarasovCoppDeBrincatRaymondAppletonFinnieBrandsegg-NygårdMazurDanielsonSkoogShineDriesLeonardBernard-DockerSandin-PellikkaSeiderWallinderBrysonJohanssonGL1L2L3L4D1D2D3GL1L2L3L4D1D2D3EllisLyonKulichOstlundHeleniusPecaKuntarRichardDanforthMcDonoughKozakBordeleauPolinValenteGilbertMcCarthyKomarovMetsaJohnsonMrtka
How to read this

Rows are BUF's skaters, columns DET's, grouped the way they played: forward lines (L1 = the line that played together most), then defence pairs. Each cell covers the five-on-five time those two players shared the ice. Its colour is the club that out-chanced the other in that time — expected goals for minus against — and the stronger the colour, the bigger the margin. Each cell is also raised: the taller the block, the longer the two shared the ice, up to full height at 12:00 of five-on-five time. A grey cell means they met and it came out even; an open, flat one means they never met at five-on-five.

The first row and column are the goalies. A goalie is in net for every five-on-five second, so a skater's cell against the other side's goalie is all of that skater's five-on-five time against that team — the rest of his row or column added up — and the corner where the two goalies meet is the game's five-on-five. Those cells cover far more time than any pair, so they reach full colour sooner and stand at full height, a wall along each edge of the grid. A goalie change adds a second goalie row or column, each covering his own time.

Linemates share the ice, so a line against a line reads as a block. The margin is a total, not a rate: a long matchup has room to build a big gap and a thirty-second one does not — which is what the height is there to show: a tall, strong cell is the game's story; a short, strong one is a moment. Hover (or tap) any cell for the exact time together, the xG each way, attempts and goals. One game — a strong cell is what happened, not what would happen again.