xJawn NHL expected goals

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CHI 0 – 1 STL

Chicago Blackhawks at St. Louis Blues

Final · Sep 24, 2026
2026-27 · preseason

Exhibition game. Split squads and tryouts, an audition rather than a game plan, and one game of anything is noise. None of it feeds the site's ratings, season tables or game predictions — preseason is kept out of every model here by construction.

On the ice
Adjusts with rink filters

Strength and score are read from CHI's side, the same minutes at both ends: PP = CHI power play · PK = STL power play · Leading = CHI ahead · ST = each club's own power play.

CHI attacks◀ all strengths
STL attacksall strengths ▶
× goal• on net ◦ missed· blocked hover any attempt for the shooter, its xG and everything the model saw
How to read this map

One rink, both teams: CHI attacks the left net, STL the right. Every attempt is a Gaussian bump of height = its model xG. The controls switch the surface (xG heatmap ↔ vs league) and the markers; vs league compares this game against a typical NHL team-game under the same filter (2026-27 regular season, 283 games), so a 5v5 view is measured against league 5v5.

A strength or score filter is read from CHI's side and mirrored for STL: “CHI PP” shows CHI's power-play attempts on the left and STL's shorthanded attempts on the right — the same minutes of the game at both ends. Empty-net attempts are excluded unless you include them. The Player control narrows the map and the rows beneath it to the attempts by either club while one player was on the ice (for a goalie, while he was in net); his own attempts wear a blue ring. vs league switches off while a player is picked — the league baseline is a whole team-game, which one player's slice is not. Hover any attempt for the shooter, the result, its xG, and the inputs behind it: clock, strength, score, shot type, distance, angle, handedness, rush/rebound, what happened just before, and the goalie or the blocker.

What each side produced

all strengths · this game
CHI STL
bars share a scale within each row · the longer bar is the row's leader
Goalson the map
0 1
Expected goals
1.34 3.07
xG%share of xG
30% 70%
High-dangerattempts ≥ 0.20 xG
0 0
Shots on goal
17 36
Attempts
30 57
xG by period · whole game 1st0.4–0.92nd0.6–0.93rd0.3–1.2

The Blues beat the Blackhawks 1–0 at home, and the chances agreed: STL out-created CHI 3.1–1.3 in expected goals. The Blues power play made 0.9 xG on 14 attempts.

Counts come from the shot table behind the map: empty-net attempts and the shootout are excluded, so the goals here can trail the official final by an empty-netter or the shootout's deciding goal. Same numbers as the post-game cards.

As the game went

all situations · this game
cumulative CHI − STL xG · bands = power plays · lines = goals
1ST2ND3RD+0.5−0.5+1−1+1.5−1.5+2−2CHI AHEAD ▲STL AHEAD ▼
How to read this

One line: cumulative CHI minus STL expected goals. Above zero CHI is ahead on chances, below zero STL is. Shaded bands are power plays in the side's colour; vertical lines are goals.

Goals

this game
xG = the chance, before it went in
TeamScorerPeriodTimexG
STLCalle Rosen 3rd3:39 0.09
Who

Skaters

all · whole game · this game
on-ice xG for and against, his own attempts, the net
strength
period
sort
How to read this

Every skater: on-ice xG against to the left of zero, for to the right, his own attempts as the solid bar, a hash at the net. The slim track under the name is ice time. The chart opens sorted by net, best first; pick another key to re-order it, and click the same key again to flip it. A name opens the player's page. Pick a period and every bar re-lays for that period alone on the same scale as the whole game, so the three periods add up to it; a skater who did not play in it fades to the bottom.

CHI
against for own net ice time
0.50.5111.51.50Roman KantserovF20:42+0.36Patrick KaneF19:39+0.29Oliver MooreF13:10+0.28Frank NazarF21:25-0.12Kevin KorchinskiD15:12-0.19Sacha BoisvertF9:13-0.24Nick LardisF12:51-0.33Anthony (AJ) SpellacyF8:34-0.38Dillon BoucherF7:48-0.42Connor MackeyD9:38-0.56Connor MylymokF8:37-0.63Landon SlaggertF11:43-0.72Wyatt KaiserD24:30-0.73Ryan GreeneF17:21-0.75Ethan Del MastroD18:07-0.76Artyom LevshunovD24:43-0.82Sam RinzelD21:40-0.84Anton FrondellF21:53-0.87
0.250.250.50.50.750.75110Oliver MooreF9:04+0.30Roman KantserovF12:38+0.20Patrick KaneF11:50+0.13Frank NazarF9:19+0.02Kevin KorchinskiD13:05-0.05Ethan Del MastroD11:34-0.18Anthony (AJ) SpellacyF6:55-0.20Wyatt KaiserD16:30-0.28Dillon BoucherF7:44-0.42Landon SlaggertF7:15-0.43Ryan GreeneF9:44-0.51Sacha BoisvertF8:03-0.52Artyom LevshunovD13:22-0.53Connor MackeyD8:13-0.55Anton FrondellF9:46-0.62Connor MylymokF8:37-0.63Nick LardisF9:26-0.65Sam RinzelD11:11-0.69
0.250.250.50.50Sam RinzelD2:15+0.32Nick LardisF1:05+0.32Oliver MooreF1:29+0.29Ryan GreeneF1:20+0.29Sacha BoisvertF1:05+0.29Roman KantserovF4:55+0.20Frank NazarF4:40+0.20Patrick KaneF4:30+0.20Anton FrondellF4:30+0.20Artyom LevshunovD3:45+0.16Wyatt KaiserD0:11+0.04Kevin KorchinskiD0:15+0.00
0.250.250.50.50.750.750Patrick KaneF0:10+0.00Sacha BoisvertF0:05+0.00Dillon BoucherF0:04+0.00Connor MackeyD0:34-0.01Kevin KorchinskiD0:30-0.01Oliver MooreF2:08-0.17Anthony (AJ) SpellacyF1:39-0.17Frank NazarF4:09-0.21Landon SlaggertF4:26-0.28Sam RinzelD5:04-0.43Ethan Del MastroD4:55-0.43Anton FrondellF4:07-0.44Wyatt KaiserD5:49-0.46Artyom LevshunovD5:35-0.46Ryan GreeneF5:33-0.52
STL
against for own net ice time
0.50.5111.51.50Cam FowlerD25:24+1.44Pavel BuchnevichF19:04+1.08Connor McMichaelF18:24+0.95Dalibor DvorskyF17:27+0.93Aleksanteri KaskimakiF15:18+0.80Brandon CarloD15:32+0.70Jake NeighboursF18:11+0.61Zach DeanF13:23+0.60Oskar SundqvistF11:58+0.55Nathan WalkerF13:08+0.53Calle RosenD17:07+0.46Adam JiricekD17:04+0.44Dillon DubeF16:09+0.25Dylan PetersonF12:46+0.13Ross JohnstonF8:57+0.06Theo LindsteinD18:25-0.00Jack FinleyF11:16-0.33Colton ParaykoD20:27-0.35
0.50.5110Cam FowlerD11:47+0.91Brandon CarloD10:49+0.89Aleksanteri KaskimakiF8:09+0.72Oskar SundqvistF8:53+0.65Nathan WalkerF10:28+0.60Zach DeanF8:35+0.38Pavel BuchnevichF8:57+0.28Connor McMichaelF8:49+0.28Calle RosenD11:14+0.28Dalibor DvorskyF9:43+0.25Dillon DubeF8:52+0.16Dylan PetersonF11:34+0.13Theo LindsteinD14:14+0.09Adam JiricekD11:18+0.09Ross JohnstonF8:46+0.06Jake NeighboursF7:51+0.02Jack FinleyF9:36-0.06Colton ParaykoD14:40-0.06
0.250.250.50.50.750.750Pavel BuchnevichF6:45+0.67Cam FowlerD6:40+0.67Dalibor DvorskyF6:39+0.67Connor McMichaelF6:32+0.67Jake NeighboursF6:29+0.67Aleksanteri KaskimakiF4:22+0.23Adam JiricekD4:21+0.22Dillon DubeF4:11+0.22Calle RosenD4:08+0.22Zach DeanF4:02+0.22Colton ParaykoD0:40+0.01Theo LindsteinD0:17+0.01Oskar SundqvistF0:11+0.01Nathan WalkerF0:09+0.01Jack FinleyF0:13+0.00Ross JohnstonF0:11+0.00Dylan PetersonF0:10+0.00
0.250.250.50.50Pavel BuchnevichF1:27-0.04Nathan WalkerF2:14-0.07Jake NeighboursF1:48-0.09Oskar SundqvistF1:52-0.10Theo LindsteinD2:11-0.11Dillon DubeF1:30-0.15Aleksanteri KaskimakiF0:47-0.15Cam FowlerD3:48-0.16Connor McMichaelF1:28-0.17Calle RosenD1:03-0.17Brandon CarloD2:45-0.20Jack FinleyF0:55-0.27Colton ParaykoD2:12-0.32

Lines & pairs

all · whole game · this game
most-used units · when they played · on-ice xG lines are by strength · 5v5 shown
strength
period
sort
How to read this

The units that actually played together most at the chosen strength — forward lines and defence pairs at 5v5, the whole group on the ice on the power play or the kill — each with when it was on the ice at that strength across the game clock (period and power-play bands behind the strip) and on-ice xG against / for while the whole unit was out, at that strength only. Sorted by time together; pick another key to re-order, and a name opens the player's page. Pick a period and the strip veils the rest of the game while the bars re-lay for that period alone, on the whole game's scale.

CHI
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF
STL
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF

Matchups

5v5 · this game
every skater against every skater, goalies first · hover a cell
order
CHI won the chances STL won them full colour = a margin of 0.75 xG or more taller = more time together (full height at 12:00) on together, dead even never on together G = goalie: his row or column is each skater against the whole other team
BinningtonBuchnevichMcMichaelDeanDubeNeighboursDvorskyJohnstonFinleyPetersonSundqvistWalkerKaskimakiParaykoLindsteinFowlerCarloRosenJiricekGL1L2L3L4D1D2D3GL1L2L3L4D1D2D3SoderblomKaneNazarKantserovGreeneLardisFrondellBoisvertMylymokBoucherSlaggertMoore(AJ) SpellacyKaiserLevshunovDel MastroKorchinskiMackeyRinzel
How to read this

Rows are CHI's skaters, columns STL's, grouped the way they played: forward lines (L1 = the line that played together most), then defence pairs. Each cell covers the five-on-five time those two players shared the ice. Its colour is the club that out-chanced the other in that time — expected goals for minus against — and the stronger the colour, the bigger the margin. Each cell is also raised: the taller the block, the longer the two shared the ice, up to full height at 12:00 of five-on-five time. A grey cell means they met and it came out even; an open, flat one means they never met at five-on-five.

The first row and column are the goalies. A goalie is in net for every five-on-five second, so a skater's cell against the other side's goalie is all of that skater's five-on-five time against that team — the rest of his row or column added up — and the corner where the two goalies meet is the game's five-on-five. Those cells cover far more time than any pair, so they reach full colour sooner and stand at full height, a wall along each edge of the grid. A goalie change adds a second goalie row or column, each covering his own time.

Linemates share the ice, so a line against a line reads as a block. The margin is a total, not a rate: a long matchup has room to build a big gap and a thirty-second one does not — which is what the height is there to show: a tall, strong cell is the game's story; a short, strong one is a moment. Hover (or tap) any cell for the exact time together, the xG each way, attempts and goals. One game — a strong cell is what happened, not what would happen again.