xJawn NHL expected goals

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UTA 4 – 5 VGK

Utah Mammoth at Vegas Golden Knights

Final / OT · Sep 24, 2026
2026-27 · preseason

Exhibition game. Split squads and tryouts, an audition rather than a game plan, and one game of anything is noise. None of it feeds the site's ratings, season tables or game predictions — preseason is kept out of every model here by construction.

On the ice
Adjusts with rink filters

Strength and score are read from UTA's side, the same minutes at both ends: PP = UTA power play · PK = VGK power play · Leading = UTA ahead · ST = each club's own power play.

UTA attacks◀ all strengths
VGK attacksall strengths ▶
× goal• on net ◦ missed· blocked hover any attempt for the shooter, its xG and everything the model saw
How to read this map

One rink, both teams: UTA attacks the left net, VGK the right. Every attempt is a Gaussian bump of height = its model xG. The controls switch the surface (xG heatmap ↔ vs league) and the markers; vs league compares this game against a typical NHL team-game under the same filter (2026-27 regular season, 283 games), so a 5v5 view is measured against league 5v5.

A strength or score filter is read from UTA's side and mirrored for VGK: “UTA PP” shows UTA's power-play attempts on the left and VGK's shorthanded attempts on the right — the same minutes of the game at both ends. Empty-net attempts are excluded unless you include them. The Player control narrows the map and the rows beneath it to the attempts by either club while one player was on the ice (for a goalie, while he was in net); his own attempts wear a blue ring. vs league switches off while a player is picked — the league baseline is a whole team-game, which one player's slice is not. Hover any attempt for the shooter, the result, its xG, and the inputs behind it: clock, strength, score, shot type, distance, angle, handedness, rush/rebound, what happened just before, and the goalie or the blocker.

What each side produced

all strengths · this game
UTA VGK
bars share a scale within each row · the longer bar is the row's leader
Goalson the map
4 5
Expected goals
1.70 3.30
xG%share of xG
34% 66%
High-dangerattempts ≥ 0.20 xG
1 0
Shots on goal
21 35
Attempts
38 77
xG by period · whole game 1st1.2–1.32nd0.3–0.93rd0.2–1.0OT0.0–0.1

The Golden Knights beat the Mammoth 5–4 in overtime at home, and the chances agreed: VGK out-created UTA 3.3–1.7 in expected goals. UTA scored 4 on 1.7 expected.

Counts come from the shot table behind the map: empty-net attempts and the shootout are excluded, so the goals here can trail the official final by an empty-netter or the shootout's deciding goal. Same numbers as the post-game cards.

As the game went

all situations · this game
cumulative UTA − VGK xG · bands = power plays · lines = goals
1ST2ND3RDOT+0.5−0.5+1−1+1.5−1.5+2−2UTA AHEAD ▲VGK AHEAD ▼
How to read this

One line: cumulative UTA minus VGK expected goals. Above zero UTA is ahead on chances, below zero VGK is. Shaded bands are power plays in the side's colour; vertical lines are goals.

Goals

this game
xG = the chance, before it went in
TeamScorerPeriodTimexG
UTAZac Jones 1st18:21 PP 0.01
UTALiam O'Brien 1st19:01 0.02
UTAArtem Duda 2nd14:06 0.04
UTATomas Lavoie 3rd18:29 0.07
VGKVictor Olofsson 1st9:38 0.07
VGKJeremy Lauzon 3rd5:19 0.03
VGKMark Stone 3rd13:06 PP 0.19
VGKTomas Hertl 3rd19:32 PP 0.06
VGKJack Eichel OT0:39 0.08
Who

Skaters

all · whole game · this game
on-ice xG for and against, his own attempts, the net
strength
period
sort
How to read this

Every skater: on-ice xG against to the left of zero, for to the right, his own attempts as the solid bar, a hash at the net. The slim track under the name is ice time. The chart opens sorted by net, best first; pick another key to re-order it, and click the same key again to flip it. A name opens the player's page. Pick a period and every bar re-lays for that period alone on the same scale as the whole game, so the three periods add up to it; a skater who did not play in it fades to the bottom.

UTA
against for own net ice time
0.50.5111.51.50Yegor BorikovF14:19+0.29Caleb DesnoyersF12:26+0.15Joshua RoyF13:48+0.14Zac JonesD15:34-0.04Gabe SmithF13:27-0.04Tomas LavoieD15:57-0.15Tij IginlaF11:57-0.29Ben McCartneyF11:30-0.31Liam O'BrienF15:29-0.31Artem DudaD22:59-0.47Barrett HaytonF17:32-0.62Kevin StenlundF16:16-0.68Kailer YamamotoF16:41-0.70Dmitri SimashevD21:44-0.70Brandon TanevF14:20-0.73Jack McBainF18:36-0.77Nick DeSimoneD21:32-0.77Nate SchmidtD21:31-1.01
0.50.5110Yegor BorikovF13:19+0.23Joshua RoyF11:46+0.15Caleb DesnoyersF11:00+0.08Zac JonesD13:34+0.04Gabe SmithF11:43-0.03Artem DudaD19:19-0.05Tomas LavoieD14:44-0.07Nick DeSimoneD16:52-0.12Barrett HaytonF13:37-0.15Kailer YamamotoF13:16-0.17Jack McBainF14:08-0.20Ben McCartneyF11:01-0.23Kevin StenlundF13:19-0.24Tij IginlaF11:12-0.30Liam O'BrienF14:17-0.31Dmitri SimashevD20:38-0.42Nate SchmidtD16:26-0.48Brandon TanevF12:14-0.64
0.250.250Joshua RoyF1:17+0.07Gabe SmithF1:15+0.07Caleb DesnoyersF1:14+0.07Yegor BorikovF1:00+0.07Nate SchmidtD0:52+0.07Zac JonesD0:58+0.01Kailer YamamotoF0:50+0.01Barrett HaytonF0:48+0.01Kevin StenlundF0:47+0.01Tij IginlaF0:45+0.01Nick DeSimoneD0:12+0.00Artem DudaD0:12+0.00
0.250.250.50.50.750.750Liam O'BrienF1:12+0.00Caleb DesnoyersF0:12+0.00Joshua RoyF0:09+0.00Zac JonesD0:33-0.08Tomas LavoieD0:44-0.08Brandon TanevF1:37-0.09Dmitri SimashevD1:06-0.28Artem DudaD2:50-0.42Kevin StenlundF2:07-0.45Barrett HaytonF2:10-0.47Jack McBainF2:52-0.48Nate SchmidtD2:59-0.51Kailer YamamotoF1:38-0.54Nick DeSimoneD3:47-0.65
VGK
against for own net ice time
0.50.5111.51.5222.52.50Shea TheodoreD26:51+2.43Tomas HertlF18:32+1.65Mark StoneF20:06+1.53Jack EichelF21:10+1.29Mitch MarnerF19:27+1.22Brayden McNabbD19:12+1.19Victor OlofssonF14:02+0.51Trevor ConnellyF12:32+0.51William KarlssonF16:15+0.43Ivan BarbashevF13:57+0.18Brett HowdenF15:09+0.02Jeremy LauzonD16:13-0.08Noah HanifinD17:25-0.14Braeden BowmanF14:37-0.23Parker WotherspoonD16:11-0.39Jonas RondbjergF10:48-0.55Nic DowdF11:56-0.67Rasmus AnderssonD17:14-0.81
0.50.5111.51.50Shea TheodoreD19:23+1.40Brayden McNabbD17:36+1.17Tomas HertlF12:13+0.64Victor OlofssonF12:51+0.51Trevor ConnellyF11:08+0.51Mark StoneF12:50+0.44William KarlssonF13:50+0.41Mitch MarnerF13:13+0.21Jack EichelF13:35+0.20Ivan BarbashevF13:57+0.18Brett HowdenF14:45+0.09Jeremy LauzonD15:28-0.07Noah HanifinD16:39-0.14Braeden BowmanF13:06-0.23Parker WotherspoonD15:18-0.39Jonas RondbjergF10:05-0.54Nic DowdF11:01-0.66Rasmus AnderssonD16:03-0.81
0.50.5110Jack EichelF4:45+1.01Mark StoneF4:40+1.01Shea TheodoreD5:00+1.01Tomas HertlF4:53+1.01Mitch MarnerF4:52+1.01William KarlssonF1:06+0.09Victor OlofssonF1:07+0.00Rasmus AnderssonD0:59+0.00Braeden BowmanF1:19-0.00Trevor ConnellyF1:14-0.00
0.250.250Jack EichelF0:45+0.00Mark StoneF0:41+0.00Parker WotherspoonD0:53-0.00Rasmus AnderssonD0:12-0.00Braeden BowmanF0:12-0.00Noah HanifinD0:46-0.01Jeremy LauzonD0:45-0.01Jonas RondbjergF0:43-0.01Nic DowdF0:55-0.01Brayden McNabbD1:07-0.07Brett HowdenF0:24-0.07Shea TheodoreD0:23-0.07William KarlssonF0:22-0.07

Lines & pairs

all · whole game · this game
most-used units · when they played · on-ice xG lines are by strength · 5v5 shown
strength
period
sort
How to read this

The units that actually played together most at the chosen strength — forward lines and defence pairs at 5v5, the whole group on the ice on the power play or the kill — each with when it was on the ice at that strength across the game clock (period and power-play bands behind the strip) and on-ice xG against / for while the whole unit was out, at that strength only. Sorted by time together; pick another key to re-order, and a name opens the player's page. Pick a period and the strip veils the rest of the game while the bars re-lay for that period alone, on the whole game's scale.

UTA
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF
VGK
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF

Matchups

5v5 · this game
every skater against every skater, goalies first · hover a cell
order
UTA won the chances VGK won them full colour = a margin of 0.75 xG or more taller = more time together (full height at 12:00) on together, dead even never on together G = goalie: his row or column is each skater against the whole other team
HillKarlssonMarnerHowdenStoneBarbashevEichelHertlOlofssonConnellyDowdRondbjergBowmanMcNabbTheodoreHanifinLauzonAnderssonWotherspoonGL1L2L3L4D1D2D3GL1L2L3L4D1D2D3CossaO'BrienStenlundBorikovYamamotoHaytonMcBainRoyIginlaDesnoyersTanevMcCartneySmithDeSimoneDudaSchmidtSimashevJonesLavoie
How to read this

Rows are UTA's skaters, columns VGK's, grouped the way they played: forward lines (L1 = the line that played together most), then defence pairs. Each cell covers the five-on-five time those two players shared the ice. Its colour is the club that out-chanced the other in that time — expected goals for minus against — and the stronger the colour, the bigger the margin. Each cell is also raised: the taller the block, the longer the two shared the ice, up to full height at 12:00 of five-on-five time. A grey cell means they met and it came out even; an open, flat one means they never met at five-on-five.

The first row and column are the goalies. A goalie is in net for every five-on-five second, so a skater's cell against the other side's goalie is all of that skater's five-on-five time against that team — the rest of his row or column added up — and the corner where the two goalies meet is the game's five-on-five. Those cells cover far more time than any pair, so they reach full colour sooner and stand at full height, a wall along each edge of the grid. A goalie change adds a second goalie row or column, each covering his own time.

Linemates share the ice, so a line against a line reads as a block. The margin is a total, not a rate: a long matchup has room to build a big gap and a thirty-second one does not — which is what the height is there to show: a tall, strong cell is the game's story; a short, strong one is a moment. Hover (or tap) any cell for the exact time together, the xG each way, attempts and goals. One game — a strong cell is what happened, not what would happen again.