xJawn NHL expected goals

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Final · Sep 26, 2026
2026-27 · preseason

Exhibition game. Split squads and tryouts, an audition rather than a game plan, and one game of anything is noise. None of it feeds the site's ratings, season tables or game predictions — preseason is kept out of every model here by construction.

On the ice
Adjusts with rink filters

Strength and score are read from CAR's side, the same minutes at both ends: PP = CAR power play · PK = NSH power play · Leading = CAR ahead · ST = each club's own power play.

CAR attacks◀ all strengths
NSH attacksall strengths ▶
× goal• on net ◦ missed· blocked hover any attempt for the shooter, its xG and everything the model saw
How to read this map

One rink, both teams: CAR attacks the left net, NSH the right. Every attempt is a Gaussian bump of height = its model xG. The controls switch the surface (xG heatmap ↔ vs league) and the markers; vs league compares this game against a typical NHL team-game under the same filter (2026-27 regular season, 283 games), so a 5v5 view is measured against league 5v5.

A strength or score filter is read from CAR's side and mirrored for NSH: “CAR PP” shows CAR's power-play attempts on the left and NSH's shorthanded attempts on the right — the same minutes of the game at both ends. Empty-net attempts are excluded unless you include them. The Player control narrows the map and the rows beneath it to the attempts by either club while one player was on the ice (for a goalie, while he was in net); his own attempts wear a blue ring. vs league switches off while a player is picked — the league baseline is a whole team-game, which one player's slice is not. Hover any attempt for the shooter, the result, its xG, and the inputs behind it: clock, strength, score, shot type, distance, angle, handedness, rush/rebound, what happened just before, and the goalie or the blocker.

What each side produced

all strengths · this game
CAR NSH
bars share a scale within each row · the longer bar is the row's leader
Goalson the map
6 0
Expected goals
2.95 1.75
xG%share of xG
63% 37%
High-dangerattempts ≥ 0.20 xG
3 1
Shots on goal
26 22
Attempts
45 46
xG by period · whole game 1st1.1–0.72nd0.5–0.63rd1.3–0.4

The Hurricanes beat the Predators 6–0 on the road, and the chances agreed: CAR out-created NSH 3.0–1.7 in expected goals. CAR scored 6 on 3.0 expected.

Counts come from the shot table behind the map: empty-net attempts and the shootout are excluded, so the goals here can trail the official final by an empty-netter or the shootout's deciding goal. Same numbers as the post-game cards.

As the game went

all situations · this game
cumulative CAR − NSH xG · bands = power plays · lines = goals
1ST2ND3RD+0.5−0.5+1−1+1.5−1.5CAR AHEAD ▲NSH AHEAD ▼
How to read this

One line: cumulative CAR minus NSH expected goals. Above zero CAR is ahead on chances, below zero NSH is. Shaded bands are power plays in the side's colour; vertical lines are goals.

Goals

this game
xG = the chance, before it went in
TeamScorerPeriodTimexG
CARJackson Blake 1st5:02 PP 0.16
CARJordan Martinook 1st7:04 0.24
CARNikolaj Ehlers 1st13:29 0.12
CARLogan Stankoven 2nd16:37 0.13
CARMark Jankowski 3rd9:21 PP 0.03
CARAndrei Svechnikov 3rd19:05 PP 0.19
Who

Skaters

all · whole game · this game
on-ice xG for and against, his own attempts, the net
strength
period
sort
How to read this

Every skater: on-ice xG against to the left of zero, for to the right, his own attempts as the solid bar, a hash at the net. The slim track under the name is ice time. The chart opens sorted by net, best first; pick another key to re-order it, and click the same key again to flip it. A name opens the player's page. Pick a period and every bar re-lays for that period alone on the same scale as the whole game, so the three periods add up to it; a skater who did not play in it fades to the bottom.

CAR
against for own net ice time
0.50.5111.51.50Jackson BlakeF15:02+1.05Shayne GostisbehereD20:08+0.96Nikolaj EhlersF13:13+0.83Logan StankovenF16:29+0.73Taylor HallF12:31+0.73K'Andre MillerD21:37+0.62Andrei SvechnikovF16:19+0.39Sean WalkerD19:09+0.28Charles Alexis LegaultD17:45+0.26Sebastian AhoF20:01+0.26Eric RobinsonF12:23+0.18William CarrierF11:53+0.14Jordan MartinookF13:28+0.10Jaccob SlavinD18:22+0.03Mark JankowskiF16:23+0.02Felix Unger SörumF15:05-0.03Jordan StaalF13:22-0.05Jalen ChatfieldD16:50-0.17
0.250.250.50.50.750.75110Logan StankovenF10:22+0.69Jackson BlakeF10:41+0.60Taylor HallF9:38+0.60Shayne GostisbehereD15:36+0.51K'Andre MillerD13:05+0.49Sean WalkerD14:19+0.37Eric RobinsonF9:02+0.28Charles Alexis LegaultD15:47+0.28Nikolaj EhlersF8:51+0.25Jordan MartinookF11:10+0.20Mark JankowskiF10:32+0.18Jaccob SlavinD13:00+0.17William CarrierF11:14+0.15Jordan StaalF9:37+0.11Jalen ChatfieldD12:54+0.02Sebastian AhoF11:40-0.04Andrei SvechnikovF11:16-0.05Felix Unger SörumF11:26-0.15
0.250.250.50.50.750.750Nikolaj EhlersF4:22+0.58Shayne GostisbehereD4:26+0.45Andrei SvechnikovF4:17+0.45Jackson BlakeF4:14+0.45Sebastian AhoF4:12+0.45Jaccob SlavinD0:04+0.16Taylor HallF2:53+0.13Logan StankovenF2:53+0.13Felix Unger SörumF2:53+0.13K'Andre MillerD2:40+0.13Jordan StaalF0:38+0.02Jalen ChatfieldD0:11+0.00Mark JankowskiF1:47-0.18
0.250.250.50.50Mark JankowskiF3:58+0.02Jackson BlakeF0:07+0.00Shayne GostisbehereD0:06+0.00K'Andre MillerD5:46-0.00William CarrierF0:33-0.01Charles Alexis LegaultD1:58-0.01Logan StankovenF3:14-0.09Eric RobinsonF3:21-0.10Sean WalkerD4:44-0.10Jordan MartinookF2:12-0.10Sebastian AhoF3:23-0.14Jordan StaalF3:07-0.18Jalen ChatfieldD2:59-0.19Jaccob SlavinD4:32-0.30
NSH
against for own net ice time
0.50.5111.51.50Ryan O'ReillyF17:42+0.37Steven StamkosF13:41+0.33Mavrik BourqueF16:30+0.18Jack AhcanD16:21+0.14Jonathan MarchessaultF16:34+0.10Vitali PinchukF14:19-0.07Ilya LyubushkinD15:02-0.08Matthew WoodF17:40-0.17Filip ForsbergF19:12-0.23Roman JosiD22:05-0.24Alexander KerfootF15:19-0.30Nils HoglanderF13:40-0.42Ross ColtonF12:14-0.55Adam EdstromF10:22-0.64Adam WilsbyD18:25-0.70Brady SkjeiD19:43-0.85Nicolas HagueD18:46-1.01Jack DruryF16:11-1.34
0.50.5110Jonathan MarchessaultF10:26+0.18Alexander KerfootF8:15+0.17Jack AhcanD10:44+0.17Mavrik BourqueF11:01+0.16Steven StamkosF8:21+0.05Ryan O'ReillyF9:05-0.07Vitali PinchukF10:33-0.08Ilya LyubushkinD12:54-0.08Matthew WoodF8:57-0.35Nils HoglanderF12:25-0.43Brady SkjeiD15:55-0.44Roman JosiD14:39-0.46Filip ForsbergF12:30-0.51Adam WilsbyD15:01-0.53Nicolas HagueD14:51-0.53Ross ColtonF11:57-0.55Adam EdstromF10:06-0.61Jack DruryF12:30-0.74
0.250.250.50.50Ryan O'ReillyF4:57+0.42Roman JosiD5:15+0.33Filip ForsbergF5:50+0.28Matthew WoodF5:13+0.28Steven StamkosF5:20+0.28Mavrik BourqueF4:40+0.02Vitali PinchukF3:36+0.01Nils HoglanderF0:39+0.01Ilya LyubushkinD0:13+0.00Jack DruryF0:13+0.00Ross ColtonF0:11+0.00Adam WilsbyD0:09+0.00Nicolas HagueD0:08+0.00Brady SkjeiD0:02+0.00Adam EdstromF0:02+0.00Jack AhcanD4:35-0.03Alexander KerfootF3:41-0.03Jonathan MarchessaultF5:16-0.07
0.250.250.50.50.750.750Ryan O'ReillyF3:40+0.02Ilya LyubushkinD1:13+0.00Mavrik BourqueF0:39+0.00Jack AhcanD0:26+0.00Adam EdstromF0:14-0.03Matthew WoodF2:54-0.10Roman JosiD2:01-0.10Adam WilsbyD3:09-0.17Brady SkjeiD3:36-0.41Alexander KerfootF3:23-0.45Nicolas HagueD3:47-0.48Jack DruryF3:22-0.60

Lines & pairs

all · whole game · this game
most-used units · when they played · on-ice xG lines are by strength · 5v5 shown
strength
period
sort
How to read this

The units that actually played together most at the chosen strength — forward lines and defence pairs at 5v5, the whole group on the ice on the power play or the kill — each with when it was on the ice at that strength across the game clock (period and power-play bands behind the strip) and on-ice xG against / for while the whole unit was out, at that strength only. Sorted by time together; pick another key to re-order, and a name opens the player's page. Pick a period and the strip veils the rest of the game while the bars re-lay for that period alone, on the whole game's scale.

CAR
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF
NSH
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF

Matchups

5v5 · this game
every skater against every skater, goalies first · hover a cell
order
CAR won the chances NSH won them full colour = a margin of 0.75 xG or more taller = more time together (full height at 12:00) on together, dead even never on together G = goalie: his row or column is each skater against the whole other team
SarosColtonDruryEdstromForsbergHoglanderWoodStamkosO'ReillyKerfootMarchessaultBourquePinchukHagueWilsbyJosiSkjeiLyubushkinAhcanGL1L2L3L4D1D2D3GL1L2L3L4D1D2D3BussiAhoSvechnikovUnger SörumHallStankovenBlakeJankowskiCarrierRobinsonStaalMartinookEhlersGostisbehereAlexis LegaultWalkerMillerSlavinChatfield
How to read this

Rows are CAR's skaters, columns NSH's, grouped the way they played: forward lines (L1 = the line that played together most), then defence pairs. Each cell covers the five-on-five time those two players shared the ice. Its colour is the club that out-chanced the other in that time — expected goals for minus against — and the stronger the colour, the bigger the margin. Each cell is also raised: the taller the block, the longer the two shared the ice, up to full height at 12:00 of five-on-five time. A grey cell means they met and it came out even; an open, flat one means they never met at five-on-five.

The first row and column are the goalies. A goalie is in net for every five-on-five second, so a skater's cell against the other side's goalie is all of that skater's five-on-five time against that team — the rest of his row or column added up — and the corner where the two goalies meet is the game's five-on-five. Those cells cover far more time than any pair, so they reach full colour sooner and stand at full height, a wall along each edge of the grid. A goalie change adds a second goalie row or column, each covering his own time.

Linemates share the ice, so a line against a line reads as a block. The margin is a total, not a rate: a long matchup has room to build a big gap and a thirty-second one does not — which is what the height is there to show: a tall, strong cell is the game's story; a short, strong one is a moment. Hover (or tap) any cell for the exact time together, the xG each way, attempts and goals. One game — a strong cell is what happened, not what would happen again.