xJawn NHL expected goals

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PIT 3 – 1 BUF

Pittsburgh Penguins at Buffalo Sabres

Final · Sep 26, 2026
2026-27 · preseason

Exhibition game. Split squads and tryouts, an audition rather than a game plan, and one game of anything is noise. None of it feeds the site's ratings, season tables or game predictions — preseason is kept out of every model here by construction.

On the ice
Adjusts with rink filters

Strength and score are read from PIT's side, the same minutes at both ends: PP = PIT power play · PK = BUF power play · Leading = PIT ahead · ST = each club's own power play.

PIT attacks◀ all strengths
BUF attacksall strengths ▶
× goal• on net ◦ missed· blocked hover any attempt for the shooter, its xG and everything the model saw
How to read this map

One rink, both teams: PIT attacks the left net, BUF the right. Every attempt is a Gaussian bump of height = its model xG. The controls switch the surface (xG heatmap ↔ vs league) and the markers; vs league compares this game against a typical NHL team-game under the same filter (2026-27 regular season, 283 games), so a 5v5 view is measured against league 5v5.

A strength or score filter is read from PIT's side and mirrored for BUF: “PIT PP” shows PIT's power-play attempts on the left and BUF's shorthanded attempts on the right — the same minutes of the game at both ends. Empty-net attempts are excluded unless you include them. The Player control narrows the map and the rows beneath it to the attempts by either club while one player was on the ice (for a goalie, while he was in net); his own attempts wear a blue ring. vs league switches off while a player is picked — the league baseline is a whole team-game, which one player's slice is not. Hover any attempt for the shooter, the result, its xG, and the inputs behind it: clock, strength, score, shot type, distance, angle, handedness, rush/rebound, what happened just before, and the goalie or the blocker.

What each side produced

all strengths · this game
PIT BUF
bars share a scale within each row · the longer bar is the row's leader
Goalson the map
2 1
Expected goals
3.74 2.08
xG%share of xG
64% 36%
High-dangerattempts ≥ 0.20 xG
3 1
Shots on goal
23 24
Attempts
49 51
xG by period · whole game 1st1.6–0.62nd1.1–0.93rd1.1–0.6

The Penguins beat the Sabres 3–1 on the road, and the chances agreed: PIT out-created BUF 3.7–2.1 in expected goals. At 5v5: PIT 3.2, BUF 1.5.

Counts come from the shot table behind the map: empty-net attempts and the shootout are excluded, so the goals here can trail the official final by an empty-netter or the shootout's deciding goal. Same numbers as the post-game cards.

As the game went

all situations · this game
cumulative PIT − BUF xG · bands = power plays · lines = goals
1ST2ND3RD+0.5−0.5+1−1+1.5−1.5+2−2PIT AHEAD ▲BUF AHEAD ▼
How to read this

One line: cumulative PIT minus BUF expected goals. Above zero PIT is ahead on chances, below zero BUF is. Shaded bands are power plays in the side's colour; vertical lines are goals.

Goals

this game
xG = the chance, before it went in
TeamScorerPeriodTimexG
PITSidney Crosby 1st9:00 0.07
PITVille Koivunen 1st10:56 0.53
PITNick Robertson 3rd18:55 EN 0.70
BUFRyan McLeod 3rd11:30 PP 0.04
Who

Skaters

all · whole game · this game
on-ice xG for and against, his own attempts, the net
strength
period
sort
How to read this

Every skater: on-ice xG against to the left of zero, for to the right, his own attempts as the solid bar, a hash at the net. The slim track under the name is ice time. The chart opens sorted by net, best first; pick another key to re-order it, and click the same key again to flip it. A name opens the player's page. Pick a period and every bar re-lays for that period alone on the same scale as the whole game, so the three periods add up to it; a skater who did not play in it fades to the bottom.

PIT
against for own net ice time
0.50.5111.51.5220Evgeni MalkinF17:45+1.76Hendrix LapierreF18:48+1.61Kris LetangD17:05+1.60Ville KoivunenF15:38+1.43Egor ChinakhovF16:42+1.42Tommy NovakF16:29+0.74Trevor van RiemsdykD18:44+0.71Erik KarlssonD18:46+0.69Declan CarlileD22:24+0.60Bryan RustF8:04+0.35Tristan BrozF10:07+0.03Rutger McGroartyF11:20-0.01Rickard RakellF14:59-0.04Sidney CrosbyF16:03-0.15Nick RobertsonF15:34-0.33Kaedan KorczakD20:45-0.39Samuel GirardD20:44-0.41Filip HallanderF14:17-0.72
0.50.5111.51.50Hendrix LapierreF14:10+1.24Evgeni MalkinF16:33+1.23Kris LetangD16:03+1.07Ville KoivunenF14:35+0.90Egor ChinakhovF15:03+0.89Trevor van RiemsdykD14:24+0.88Declan CarlileD18:10+0.76Tommy NovakF15:41+0.74Erik KarlssonD17:48+0.69Bryan RustF4:57+0.47Nick RobertsonF12:22+0.09Tristan BrozF10:07+0.03Kaedan KorczakD18:32-0.01Rickard RakellF12:42-0.01Rutger McGroartyF10:50-0.01Samuel GirardD18:29-0.03Sidney CrosbyF14:23-0.15Filip HallanderF13:01-0.37
0.250.250.50.50.750.750Egor ChinakhovF1:13+0.53Evgeni MalkinF1:12+0.53Hendrix LapierreF1:07+0.53Ville KoivunenF1:03+0.53Kris LetangD1:02+0.53Erik KarlssonD0:58+0.00Sidney CrosbyF0:53+0.00Bryan RustF0:50+0.00Tommy NovakF0:48+0.00Rickard RakellF0:47+0.00Trevor van RiemsdykD0:07+0.00
0.250.250.50.50Rutger McGroartyF0:30+0.00Egor ChinakhovF0:26+0.00Sidney CrosbyF0:11+0.00Rickard RakellF0:54-0.03Bryan RustF2:17-0.13Declan CarlileD3:38-0.17Trevor van RiemsdykD3:37-0.17Hendrix LapierreF3:31-0.17Filip HallanderF1:16-0.35Samuel GirardD2:15-0.38Kaedan KorczakD2:13-0.38Nick RobertsonF2:36-0.42
BUF
against for own net ice time
0.50.5111.51.5220Josh NorrisF14:38+0.35Josh DoanF17:00+0.24Noah OstlundF16:10+0.02Owen PowerD22:11+0.00Jack QuinnF16:57-0.14Konsta HeleniusF14:34-0.17Tyson KozakF10:39-0.25Sam CarrickF13:07-0.27Zach MetsaD16:48-0.42Peyton KrebsF15:57-0.43Tage ThompsonF19:23-0.57Beck MalenstynF12:08-0.59Rasmus DahlinD24:44-0.60Zach BensonF17:43-0.80Louis CrevierD16:54-0.87Matt GrzelcykD16:48-0.99Conor TimminsD16:37-0.99Ryan McLeodF16:18-1.31
0.50.5111.51.50Josh DoanF13:19+0.07Josh NorrisF12:25-0.04Beck MalenstynF10:53-0.06Rasmus DahlinD19:16-0.24Tyson KozakF10:39-0.25Sam CarrickF12:57-0.27Jack QuinnF11:54-0.31Louis CrevierD15:45-0.34Noah OstlundF12:48-0.36Owen PowerD18:42-0.38Zach MetsaD16:48-0.42Peyton KrebsF15:50-0.43Konsta HeleniusF12:24-0.55Tage ThompsonF15:04-0.74Zach BensonF13:01-0.96Matt GrzelcykD16:41-0.99Conor TimminsD15:46-0.99Ryan McLeodF13:33-1.16
0.250.250.50.50Josh NorrisF2:13+0.38Noah OstlundF2:11+0.38Konsta HeleniusF2:10+0.38Owen PowerD2:08+0.38Ryan McLeodF2:02+0.38Jack QuinnF3:49+0.16Rasmus DahlinD3:44+0.16Josh DoanF3:41+0.16Zach BensonF3:41+0.16Tage ThompsonF3:36+0.16
0.250.250.50.50.750.750Conor TimminsD0:51+0.00Owen PowerD0:45+0.00Jack QuinnF0:38+0.00Noah OstlundF0:35+0.00Zach BensonF0:25+0.00Sam CarrickF0:10+0.00Matt GrzelcykD0:07+0.00Tage ThompsonF0:07+0.00Peyton KrebsF0:07+0.00Beck MalenstynF1:15-0.53Louis CrevierD1:09-0.53Rasmus DahlinD1:08-0.53Ryan McLeodF0:43-0.53

Lines & pairs

all · whole game · this game
most-used units · when they played · on-ice xG lines are by strength · 5v5 shown
strength
period
sort
How to read this

The units that actually played together most at the chosen strength — forward lines and defence pairs at 5v5, the whole group on the ice on the power play or the kill — each with when it was on the ice at that strength across the game clock (period and power-play bands behind the strip) and on-ice xG against / for while the whole unit was out, at that strength only. Sorted by time together; pick another key to re-order, and a name opens the player's page. Pick a period and the strip veils the rest of the game while the bars re-lay for that period alone, on the whole game's scale.

PIT
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF
BUF
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF

Matchups

5v5 · this game
every skater against every skater, goalies first · hover a cell
order
PIT won the chances BUF won them full colour = a margin of 0.75 xG or more taller = more time together (full height at 12:00) on together, dead even never on together G = goalie: his row or column is each skater against the whole other team
LuukkonenEllisCarrickMalenstynKozakThompsonOstlundBensonMcLeodKrebsHeleniusNorrisQuinnDoanDahlinCrevierPowerMetsaGrzelcykTimminsGL1L2L3L4D1D2D3GL1L2L3L4D1D2D3SilovsMalkinNovakChinakhovCrosbyRakellRobertsonRustLapierreKoivunenHallanderBrozMcGroartyGirardKorczakKarlssonCarlileLetangvan Riemsdyk
How to read this

Rows are PIT's skaters, columns BUF's, grouped the way they played: forward lines (L1 = the line that played together most), then defence pairs. Each cell covers the five-on-five time those two players shared the ice. Its colour is the club that out-chanced the other in that time — expected goals for minus against — and the stronger the colour, the bigger the margin. Each cell is also raised: the taller the block, the longer the two shared the ice, up to full height at 12:00 of five-on-five time. A grey cell means they met and it came out even; an open, flat one means they never met at five-on-five.

The first row and column are the goalies. A goalie is in net for every five-on-five second, so a skater's cell against the other side's goalie is all of that skater's five-on-five time against that team — the rest of his row or column added up — and the corner where the two goalies meet is the game's five-on-five. Those cells cover far more time than any pair, so they reach full colour sooner and stand at full height, a wall along each edge of the grid. A goalie change adds a second goalie row or column, each covering his own time.

Linemates share the ice, so a line against a line reads as a block. The margin is a total, not a rate: a long matchup has room to build a big gap and a thirty-second one does not — which is what the height is there to show: a tall, strong cell is the game's story; a short, strong one is a moment. Hover (or tap) any cell for the exact time together, the xG each way, attempts and goals. One game — a strong cell is what happened, not what would happen again.