xJawn NHL expected goals

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Final · Sep 26, 2026
2026-27 · preseason

Exhibition game. Split squads and tryouts, an audition rather than a game plan, and one game of anything is noise. None of it feeds the site's ratings, season tables or game predictions — preseason is kept out of every model here by construction.

On the ice
Adjusts with rink filters

Strength and score are read from WSH's side, the same minutes at both ends: PP = WSH power play · PK = PHI power play · Leading = WSH ahead · ST = each club's own power play.

WSH attacks◀ all strengths
PHI attacksall strengths ▶
× goal• on net ◦ missed· blocked hover any attempt for the shooter, its xG and everything the model saw
How to read this map

One rink, both teams: WSH attacks the left net, PHI the right. Every attempt is a Gaussian bump of height = its model xG. The controls switch the surface (xG heatmap ↔ vs league) and the markers; vs league compares this game against a typical NHL team-game under the same filter (2026-27 regular season, 283 games), so a 5v5 view is measured against league 5v5.

A strength or score filter is read from WSH's side and mirrored for PHI: “WSH PP” shows WSH's power-play attempts on the left and PHI's shorthanded attempts on the right — the same minutes of the game at both ends. Empty-net attempts are excluded unless you include them. The Player control narrows the map and the rows beneath it to the attempts by either club while one player was on the ice (for a goalie, while he was in net); his own attempts wear a blue ring. vs league switches off while a player is picked — the league baseline is a whole team-game, which one player's slice is not. Hover any attempt for the shooter, the result, its xG, and the inputs behind it: clock, strength, score, shot type, distance, angle, handedness, rush/rebound, what happened just before, and the goalie or the blocker.

What each side produced

all strengths · this game
WSH PHI
bars share a scale within each row · the longer bar is the row's leader
Goalson the map
5 1
Expected goals
3.08 4.30
xG%share of xG
42% 58%
High-dangerattempts ≥ 0.20 xG
5 0
Shots on goal
24 37
Attempts
46 83
xG by period · whole game 1st0.2–1.92nd1.1–1.53rd1.8–0.8

The Capitals beat the Flyers 5–1 on the road despite being out-created 4.3–3.1 in expected goals. That is a finishing-and-goaltending win. The Flyers power play made 1.3 xG on 14 attempts.

Counts come from the shot table behind the map: empty-net attempts and the shootout are excluded, so the goals here can trail the official final by an empty-netter or the shootout's deciding goal. Same numbers as the post-game cards.

As the game went

all situations · this game
cumulative WSH − PHI xG · bands = power plays · lines = goals
1ST2ND3RD+1−1+2−2WSH AHEAD ▲PHI AHEAD ▼
How to read this

One line: cumulative WSH minus PHI expected goals. Above zero WSH is ahead on chances, below zero PHI is. Shaded bands are power plays in the side's colour; vertical lines are goals.

Goals

this game
xG = the chance, before it went in
TeamScorerPeriodTimexG
WSHAndrew Cristall 2nd4:32 0.36
WSHMaxim Schafer 2nd7:36 0.06
WSHEthen Frank 2nd12:24 PP 0.16
WSHTheodor Niederbach 3rd1:07 0.04
WSHLynden Lakovic 3rd16:06 0.31
PHIJamie Drysdale 2nd0:31 0.06
Who

Skaters

all · whole game · this game
on-ice xG for and against, his own attempts, the net
strength
period
sort
How to read this

Every skater: on-ice xG against to the left of zero, for to the right, his own attempts as the solid bar, a hash at the net. The slim track under the name is ice time. The chart opens sorted by net, best first; pick another key to re-order it, and click the same key again to flip it. A name opens the player's page. Pick a period and every bar re-lays for that period alone on the same scale as the whole game, so the three periods add up to it; a skater who did not play in it fades to the bottom.

WSH
against for own net ice time
0.50.5111.51.5220Andrew CristallF16:04+1.44Lynden LakovicF15:34+1.11Spencer SmallmanF19:02+0.82Ethen FrankF17:47+0.59Cam AllenD21:39+0.17Alexander SuzdalevF9:26+0.09Terik ParascakF13:14-0.18Ivan MiroshnichenkoF15:27-0.36Petr SikoraF14:47-0.53Jonathan McDonaldD18:06-0.56Louie BelpedioD19:54-0.67Ryan ChesleyD21:37-0.70Maxim SchaferF10:54-0.74Leon MuggliD18:09-0.78Theodor NiederbachF14:26-0.93Eriks MateikoF14:34-1.16David GucciardiD16:19-1.16Tyler KopffF15:01-1.33
0.50.5111.51.50Andrew CristallF12:57+0.81Spencer SmallmanF13:06+0.54Lynden LakovicF12:22+0.49Ethen FrankF11:51+0.43Petr SikoraF11:55+0.07Alexander SuzdalevF6:42+0.06Cam AllenD16:30-0.09Louie BelpedioD14:36-0.10Terik ParascakF10:18-0.21Ryan ChesleyD18:06-0.25Jonathan McDonaldD15:10-0.33Theodor NiederbachF8:57-0.35Ivan MiroshnichenkoF12:52-0.38David GucciardiD12:52-0.50Leon MuggliD15:47-0.60Maxim SchaferF10:45-0.74Eriks MateikoF12:20-0.97Tyler KopffF12:14-1.03
0.250.250.50.50.750.750Lynden LakovicF3:12+0.63Andrew CristallF3:07+0.63Ethen FrankF3:04+0.63Spencer SmallmanF3:03+0.63Cam AllenD3:47+0.49Louie BelpedioD2:18+0.16Terik ParascakF2:56+0.03Alexander SuzdalevF2:44+0.03Theodor NiederbachF2:40+0.02Ivan MiroshnichenkoF2:35+0.02Ryan ChesleyD0:25+0.01Tyler KopffF0:22+0.01Leon MuggliD0:06+0.01Eriks MateikoF0:12+0.00Maxim SchaferF0:09+0.00
0.250.250.50.50.750.750Leon MuggliD2:16-0.19Eriks MateikoF2:02-0.19Cam AllenD1:22-0.23Jonathan McDonaldD2:56-0.24Tyler KopffF2:25-0.31Spencer SmallmanF2:53-0.34Ryan ChesleyD3:06-0.46Ethen FrankF2:52-0.46Petr SikoraF2:52-0.60Theodor NiederbachF2:49-0.60David GucciardiD3:27-0.66Louie BelpedioD3:00-0.72
PHI
against for own net ice time
0.50.5111.51.5220Owen TippettF17:12+1.53Porter MartoneF15:24+1.17Travis KonecnyF14:50+1.14Garrett WilsonF10:37+1.09Sean CouturierF14:17+0.94Noel AcciariF12:51+0.86Jamie DrysdaleD22:37+0.62Trevor ZegrasF18:15+0.61Travis SanheimD22:27+0.53Cam YorkD19:56+0.45Rasmus RistolainenD18:09+0.03David JiricekD15:20+0.01Matvei MichkovF18:04-0.12Alex BumpF14:45-0.15Tyson FoersterF17:55-0.15Noah CatesF14:47-0.38Christian DvorakF12:34-0.57Nick SeelerD13:52-0.84
0.50.5111.51.50Garrett WilsonF10:28+1.09Noel AcciariF10:37+0.88Sean CouturierF11:08+0.85Porter MartoneF12:00+0.84Travis SanheimD19:06+0.72Cam YorkD16:30+0.64Owen TippettF11:56+0.64Rasmus RistolainenD16:26+0.50Jamie DrysdaleD16:37+0.43Trevor ZegrasF14:38+0.27Travis KonecnyF9:44+0.24Noah CatesF10:53+0.00Tyson FoersterF12:21-0.02Christian DvorakF9:41-0.50David JiricekD11:14-0.58Nick SeelerD12:04-0.84Matvei MichkovF13:28-0.94Alex BumpF10:29-1.06
0.250.250.50.50.750.75110Owen TippettF4:33+0.91Travis KonecnyF4:27+0.91Alex BumpF4:16+0.91Matvei MichkovF4:36+0.82Jamie DrysdaleD3:51+0.66David JiricekD4:06+0.59Trevor ZegrasF3:37+0.34Porter MartoneF3:24+0.34Tyson FoersterF3:19+0.34Noah CatesF1:02+0.24Sean CouturierF1:08+0.10Christian DvorakF1:21+0.08Garrett WilsonF0:09+0.00Travis SanheimD0:08+0.00Rasmus RistolainenD0:03+0.00
0.250.250.50.50.750.750Nick SeelerD1:48+0.00Owen TippettF0:43-0.01Travis KonecnyF0:39-0.01Noel AcciariF2:14-0.02Sean CouturierF2:01-0.02Christian DvorakF1:32-0.16Cam YorkD3:26-0.19Travis SanheimD3:13-0.19Tyson FoersterF2:15-0.47Jamie DrysdaleD2:09-0.47Rasmus RistolainenD1:40-0.47Noah CatesF2:52-0.63

Lines & pairs

all · whole game · this game
most-used units · when they played · on-ice xG lines are by strength · 5v5 shown
strength
period
sort
How to read this

The units that actually played together most at the chosen strength — forward lines and defence pairs at 5v5, the whole group on the ice on the power play or the kill — each with when it was on the ice at that strength across the game clock (period and power-play bands behind the strip) and on-ice xG against / for while the whole unit was out, at that strength only. Sorted by time together; pick another key to re-order, and a name opens the player's page. Pick a period and the strip veils the rest of the game while the bars re-lay for that period alone, on the whole game's scale.

WSH
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF
PHI
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF

Matchups

5v5 · this game
every skater against every skater, goalies first · hover a cell
order
WSH won the chances PHI won them full colour = a margin of 0.75 xG or more taller = more time together (full height at 12:00) on together, dead even never on together G = goalie: his row or column is each skater against the whole other team
KolosovTippettZegrasMartoneKonecnyCatesFoersterDvorakBumpMichkovWilsonCouturierAcciariYorkDrysdaleRistolainenSanheimSeelerJiricekGL1L2L3L4D1D2D3GL1L2L3L4D1D2D3LindgrenPetersenSmallmanFrankCristallMateikoKopffSchaferNiederbachMiroshnichenkoParascakSuzdalevSikoraLakovicChesleyMuggliAllenMcDonaldBelpedioGucciardi
How to read this

Rows are WSH's skaters, columns PHI's, grouped the way they played: forward lines (L1 = the line that played together most), then defence pairs. Each cell covers the five-on-five time those two players shared the ice. Its colour is the club that out-chanced the other in that time — expected goals for minus against — and the stronger the colour, the bigger the margin. Each cell is also raised: the taller the block, the longer the two shared the ice, up to full height at 12:00 of five-on-five time. A grey cell means they met and it came out even; an open, flat one means they never met at five-on-five.

The first row and column are the goalies. A goalie is in net for every five-on-five second, so a skater's cell against the other side's goalie is all of that skater's five-on-five time against that team — the rest of his row or column added up — and the corner where the two goalies meet is the game's five-on-five. Those cells cover far more time than any pair, so they reach full colour sooner and stand at full height, a wall along each edge of the grid. A goalie change adds a second goalie row or column, each covering his own time.

Linemates share the ice, so a line against a line reads as a block. The margin is a total, not a rate: a long matchup has room to build a big gap and a thirty-second one does not — which is what the height is there to show: a tall, strong cell is the game's story; a short, strong one is a moment. Hover (or tap) any cell for the exact time together, the xG each way, attempts and goals. One game — a strong cell is what happened, not what would happen again.