xJawn NHL expected goals

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Final / SO · Sep 26, 2026
2026-27 · preseason

Exhibition game. Split squads and tryouts, an audition rather than a game plan, and one game of anything is noise. None of it feeds the site's ratings, season tables or game predictions — preseason is kept out of every model here by construction.

On the ice
Adjusts with rink filters

Strength and score are read from TBL's side, the same minutes at both ends: PP = TBL power play · PK = FLA power play · Leading = TBL ahead · ST = each club's own power play.

TBL attacks◀ all strengths
FLA attacksall strengths ▶
× goal• on net ◦ missed· blocked hover any attempt for the shooter, its xG and everything the model saw
How to read this map

One rink, both teams: TBL attacks the left net, FLA the right. Every attempt is a Gaussian bump of height = its model xG. The controls switch the surface (xG heatmap ↔ vs league) and the markers; vs league compares this game against a typical NHL team-game under the same filter (2026-27 regular season, 283 games), so a 5v5 view is measured against league 5v5.

A strength or score filter is read from TBL's side and mirrored for FLA: “TBL PP” shows TBL's power-play attempts on the left and FLA's shorthanded attempts on the right — the same minutes of the game at both ends. Empty-net attempts are excluded unless you include them. The Player control narrows the map and the rows beneath it to the attempts by either club while one player was on the ice (for a goalie, while he was in net); his own attempts wear a blue ring. vs league switches off while a player is picked — the league baseline is a whole team-game, which one player's slice is not. Hover any attempt for the shooter, the result, its xG, and the inputs behind it: clock, strength, score, shot type, distance, angle, handedness, rush/rebound, what happened just before, and the goalie or the blocker.

What each side produced

all strengths · this game
TBL FLA
bars share a scale within each row · the longer bar is the row's leader
Goalson the map
2 2
Expected goals
2.00 1.96
xG%share of xG
51% 49%
High-dangerattempts ≥ 0.20 xG
2 1
Shots on goal
22 22
Attempts
39 42
xG by period · whole game 1st0.8–0.62nd0.3–0.53rd0.7–0.6OT0.2–0.3

The Lightning beat the Panthers 3–2 in a shootout on the road in a game the chances called about even, TBL 2.0 to FLA 2.0 in expected goals. At 5v5: TBL 1.2, FLA 1.1.

Counts come from the shot table behind the map: empty-net attempts and the shootout are excluded, so the goals here can trail the official final by an empty-netter or the shootout's deciding goal. Same numbers as the post-game cards.

As the game went

all situations · this game
cumulative TBL − FLA xG · bands = power plays · lines = goals
1ST2ND3RDOT+0.5−0.5TBL AHEAD ▲FLA AHEAD ▼
How to read this

One line: cumulative TBL minus FLA expected goals. Above zero TBL is ahead on chances, below zero FLA is. Shaded bands are power plays in the side's colour; vertical lines are goals.

Goals

this game
xG = the chance, before it went in
TeamScorerPeriodTimexG
TBLLucas Mercuri 1st8:50 0.18
TBLBenjamin Rautiainen 3rd12:58 PP 0.22
FLASandis Vilmanis 1st17:58 0.06
FLAMatvei Shuravin 2nd2:03 0.02
Who

Skaters

all · whole game · this game
on-ice xG for and against, his own attempts, the net
strength
period
sort
How to read this

Every skater: on-ice xG against to the left of zero, for to the right, his own attempts as the solid bar, a hash at the net. The slim track under the name is ice time. The chart opens sorted by net, best first; pick another key to re-order it, and click the same key again to flip it. A name opens the player's page. Pick a period and every bar re-lays for that period alone on the same scale as the whole game, so the three periods add up to it; a skater who did not play in it fades to the bottom.

TBL
against for own net ice time
0.50.5110Jakob PelletierF16:59+0.62Benjamin RautiainenF17:58+0.48Pontus HolmbergF20:09+0.39Noah SteenF16:36+0.38Charle-Edouard D'AstousD13:25+0.34Jeff VielF12:22+0.33Sam O'ReillyF20:35+0.22Gage GoncalvesF19:53+0.17Conor GeekieF19:56+0.15Zemgus GirgensonsF14:24+0.14Max CrozierD25:59+0.13Nick AbruzzeseF14:57-0.11Lucas MercuriF10:36-0.14Michael CallahanD22:00-0.22Matt PietroniroD12:45-0.22Jarred TinordiD17:13-0.32Maxim GroshevD21:25-0.37Dylan DukeF12:08-0.82
0.250.250.50.50.750.750Jeff VielF11:37+0.33Max CrozierD18:10+0.32Noah SteenF11:14+0.26Zemgus GirgensonsF11:55+0.22Charle-Edouard D'AstousD8:30+0.19Benjamin RautiainenF11:26+0.18Pontus HolmbergF10:53+0.18Sam O'ReillyF11:34+0.16Jakob PelletierF9:46+0.13Maxim GroshevD17:33+0.03Lucas MercuriF9:48-0.03Matt PietroniroD10:10-0.09Conor GeekieF12:24-0.16Michael CallahanD17:40-0.18Nick AbruzzeseF9:06-0.18Jarred TinordiD15:13-0.19Gage GoncalvesF10:51-0.23Dylan DukeF10:20-0.72
0.250.250.50.50Jakob PelletierF5:14+0.45Benjamin RautiainenF4:37+0.45Pontus HolmbergF5:17+0.44Sam O'ReillyF5:15+0.44Gage GoncalvesF5:13+0.44Conor GeekieF5:12+0.44Noah SteenF4:32+0.23Nick AbruzzeseF4:23+0.23Max CrozierD4:08+0.23Charle-Edouard D'AstousD4:04+0.21Dylan DukeF0:46+0.00Lucas MercuriF0:13+0.00Jarred TinordiD0:11+0.00Maxim GroshevD0:08+0.00Zemgus GirgensonsF0:01+0.00Michael CallahanD0:01+0.00
0.250.250.50.50Jeff VielF0:13+0.00Charle-Edouard D'AstousD0:51-0.07Zemgus GirgensonsF2:26-0.08Pontus HolmbergF2:22-0.08Dylan DukeF0:11-0.11Jarred TinordiD1:49-0.13Conor GeekieF0:51-0.13Jakob PelletierF0:47-0.13Matt PietroniroD2:03-0.14Gage GoncalvesF2:02-0.21Sam O'ReillyF2:02-0.21Michael CallahanD2:38-0.22Maxim GroshevD1:45-0.25Max CrozierD1:52-0.26
FLA
against for own net ice time
0.50.5110Hunter St. MartinF13:31+0.78Nathan BastianF16:12+0.67Matvei ShuravinD21:22+0.65Gracyn SawchynF13:54+0.63Mikulas HovorkaD19:22+0.53Cole ReinhardtF13:55+0.51Cole SchwindtF15:04+0.10Kai SchwindtF10:34+0.07Marek AlscherD18:33+0.02John BeecherF18:35-0.12Jack DevineF15:13-0.13Donovan SebrangoD18:04-0.21Sandis VilmanisF20:15-0.32Bokondji ImamaF14:02-0.36Uvis BalinskisD24:46-0.53Sam LaffertyF14:34-0.62Alexander PetrovicD23:10-0.68Garnet HathawayF13:35-0.68
0.250.250.50.50.750.750Nathan BastianF9:41+0.59Gracyn SawchynF9:36+0.48Cole ReinhardtF8:13+0.46Cole SchwindtF12:46+0.33Mikulas HovorkaD14:11+0.27Matvei ShuravinD15:02+0.23Hunter St. MartinF9:20+0.19Marek AlscherD14:37+0.09Kai SchwindtF10:06+0.07Donovan SebrangoD15:01+0.02Sandis VilmanisF11:55-0.32Alexander PetrovicD13:29-0.34John BeecherF12:15-0.34Bokondji ImamaF13:59-0.36Uvis BalinskisD15:09-0.37Sam LaffertyF8:59-0.39Jack DevineF12:54-0.39Garnet HathawayF11:04-0.45
0.250.250.50.50Sandis VilmanisF2:56+0.38Uvis BalinskisD3:07+0.27Nathan BastianF3:02+0.27Hunter St. MartinF2:54+0.27Alexander PetrovicD2:52+0.27Mikulas HovorkaD2:26+0.26Cole ReinhardtF2:23+0.26Matvei ShuravinD2:12+0.26Jack DevineF2:08+0.26Gracyn SawchynF2:20+0.15John BeecherF0:10+0.11Kai SchwindtF0:20+0.00Marek AlscherD0:10+0.00Donovan SebrangoD0:09+0.00Cole SchwindtF0:08+0.00Bokondji ImamaF0:03+0.00
0.250.250.50.50Mikulas HovorkaD2:02+0.00Matvei ShuravinD1:55+0.00Kai SchwindtF0:08+0.00Cole ReinhardtF0:54-0.04John BeecherF3:56-0.05Nathan BastianF3:29-0.19Sandis VilmanisF3:22-0.21Garnet HathawayF2:11-0.23Marek AlscherD3:07-0.23Donovan SebrangoD2:54-0.23Cole SchwindtF2:10-0.23Sam LaffertyF3:35-0.39Alexander PetrovicD5:03-0.44Uvis BalinskisD4:44-0.44

Lines & pairs

all · whole game · this game
most-used units · when they played · on-ice xG lines are by strength · 5v5 shown
strength
period
sort
How to read this

The units that actually played together most at the chosen strength — forward lines and defence pairs at 5v5, the whole group on the ice on the power play or the kill — each with when it was on the ice at that strength across the game clock (period and power-play bands behind the strip) and on-ice xG against / for while the whole unit was out, at that strength only. Sorted by time together; pick another key to re-order, and a name opens the player's page. Pick a period and the strip veils the rest of the game while the bars re-lay for that period alone, on the whole game's scale.

TBL
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF
FLA
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF

Matchups

5v5 · this game
every skater against every skater, goalies first · hover a cell
order
TBL won the chances FLA won them full colour = a margin of 0.75 xG or more taller = more time together (full height at 12:00) on together, dead even never on together G = goalie: his row or column is each skater against the whole other team
SchmidImamaBeecherDevineHathawayLaffertyVilmanisSchwindtSchwindtSt. MartinBastianReinhardtSawchynSebrangoAlscherHovorkaShuravinPetrovicBalinskisGL1L2L3L4D1D2D3GL1L2L3L4D1D2D3HildebyO'ReillySteenRautiainenPelletierGoncalvesGeekieGirgensonsVielHolmbergAbruzzeseMercuriDukeTinordiCallahanGroshevPietroniroD'AstousCrozier
How to read this

Rows are TBL's skaters, columns FLA's, grouped the way they played: forward lines (L1 = the line that played together most), then defence pairs. Each cell covers the five-on-five time those two players shared the ice. Its colour is the club that out-chanced the other in that time — expected goals for minus against — and the stronger the colour, the bigger the margin. Each cell is also raised: the taller the block, the longer the two shared the ice, up to full height at 12:00 of five-on-five time. A grey cell means they met and it came out even; an open, flat one means they never met at five-on-five.

The first row and column are the goalies. A goalie is in net for every five-on-five second, so a skater's cell against the other side's goalie is all of that skater's five-on-five time against that team — the rest of his row or column added up — and the corner where the two goalies meet is the game's five-on-five. Those cells cover far more time than any pair, so they reach full colour sooner and stand at full height, a wall along each edge of the grid. A goalie change adds a second goalie row or column, each covering his own time.

Linemates share the ice, so a line against a line reads as a block. The margin is a total, not a rate: a long matchup has room to build a big gap and a thirty-second one does not — which is what the height is there to show: a tall, strong cell is the game's story; a short, strong one is a moment. Hover (or tap) any cell for the exact time together, the xG each way, attempts and goals. One game — a strong cell is what happened, not what would happen again.