xJawn NHL expected goals

← Preseason

Save a card: Summary · Full card · Game flow · OTT skaters · MTL skaters · OTT lines · MTL lines · Matchups
Today's puzzle Remember Some Guys — name the skater from the shape of his career. Three clues, one guess a day. Play →
Final · Sep 26, 2026
2026-27 · preseason

Exhibition game. Split squads and tryouts, an audition rather than a game plan, and one game of anything is noise. None of it feeds the site's ratings, season tables or game predictions — preseason is kept out of every model here by construction.

On the ice
Adjusts with rink filters

Strength and score are read from OTT's side, the same minutes at both ends: PP = OTT power play · PK = MTL power play · Leading = OTT ahead · ST = each club's own power play.

OTT attacks◀ all strengths
MTL attacksall strengths ▶
× goal• on net ◦ missed· blocked hover any attempt for the shooter, its xG and everything the model saw
How to read this map

One rink, both teams: OTT attacks the left net, MTL the right. Every attempt is a Gaussian bump of height = its model xG. The controls switch the surface (xG heatmap ↔ vs league) and the markers; vs league compares this game against a typical NHL team-game under the same filter (2026-27 regular season, 283 games), so a 5v5 view is measured against league 5v5.

A strength or score filter is read from OTT's side and mirrored for MTL: “OTT PP” shows OTT's power-play attempts on the left and MTL's shorthanded attempts on the right — the same minutes of the game at both ends. Empty-net attempts are excluded unless you include them. The Player control narrows the map and the rows beneath it to the attempts by either club while one player was on the ice (for a goalie, while he was in net); his own attempts wear a blue ring. vs league switches off while a player is picked — the league baseline is a whole team-game, which one player's slice is not. Hover any attempt for the shooter, the result, its xG, and the inputs behind it: clock, strength, score, shot type, distance, angle, handedness, rush/rebound, what happened just before, and the goalie or the blocker.

What each side produced

all strengths · this game
OTT MTL
bars share a scale within each row · the longer bar is the row's leader
Goalson the map
2 4
Expected goals
2.96 3.13
xG%share of xG
49% 51%
High-dangerattempts ≥ 0.20 xG
1 3
Shots on goal
32 26
Attempts
47 56
xG by period · whole game 1st0.7–1.52nd1.5–0.63rd0.7–1.1

The Canadiens beat the Senators 4–2 at home in a game the chances called about even, OTT 3.0 to MTL 3.1 in expected goals. The Senators power play made 1.4 xG on 17 attempts.

Counts come from the shot table behind the map: empty-net attempts and the shootout are excluded, so the goals here can trail the official final by an empty-netter or the shootout's deciding goal. Same numbers as the post-game cards.

As the game went

all situations · this game
cumulative OTT − MTL xG · bands = power plays · lines = goals
1ST2ND3RD+0.5−0.5+1−1+1.5−1.5OTT AHEAD ▲MTL AHEAD ▼
How to read this

One line: cumulative OTT minus MTL expected goals. Above zero OTT is ahead on chances, below zero MTL is. Shaded bands are power plays in the side's colour; vertical lines are goals.

Goals

this game
xG = the chance, before it went in
TeamScorerPeriodTimexG
OTTPhilip Tomasino 1st11:54 PP 0.16
OTTTyler Boucher 1st19:19 PP 0.08
MTLChris Kreider 1st13:31 0.25
MTLNoah Dobson 2nd0:47 PP 0.04
MTLJuraj Slafkovský 3rd6:13 0.15
MTLPhillip Danault 3rd12:56 0.19
Who

Skaters

all · whole game · this game
on-ice xG for and against, his own attempts, the net
strength
period
sort
How to read this

Every skater: on-ice xG against to the left of zero, for to the right, his own attempts as the solid bar, a hash at the net. The slim track under the name is ice time. The chart opens sorted by net, best first; pick another key to re-order it, and click the same key again to flip it. A name opens the player's page. Pick a period and every bar re-lays for that period alone on the same scale as the whole game, so the three periods add up to it; a skater who did not play in it fades to the bottom.

OTT
against for own net ice time
0.50.5111.51.5220Christian KyrouD18:43+1.10Ridly GreigF23:25+0.93Philip TomasinoF22:58+0.76Kasper HalttunenF20:11+0.74Jaxon CoverF16:18+0.69Oskar PetterssonF10:36+0.29Nikolas MatinpaloD16:33-0.01Ben HuttonD19:40-0.02Adam NemecF1:39-0.12Philippe DaoustF17:33-0.24Xavier BourgaultF20:50-0.26Tyler BoucherF15:41-0.33Cameron CrottyD15:47-0.49Ryan SuzukiF19:05-0.64Scott HarringtonD15:33-0.67Samuel BolducD15:05-0.78Samuel BlaisF17:49-0.79Djibril ToureD10:47-0.90
0.50.5111.51.50Oskar PetterssonF9:27+0.32Nikolas MatinpaloD13:52-0.05Ben HuttonD15:06-0.11Adam NemecF1:39-0.12Christian KyrouD11:03-0.21Ridly GreigF14:47-0.34Philippe DaoustF13:48-0.37Xavier BourgaultF17:13-0.38Tyler BoucherF13:23-0.42Cameron CrottyD15:00-0.46Philip TomasinoF14:45-0.55Kasper HalttunenF13:54-0.57Jaxon CoverF10:13-0.61Scott HarringtonD15:24-0.67Samuel BolducD13:28-0.78Samuel BlaisF16:09-0.79Ryan SuzukiF15:14-0.85Djibril ToureD10:25-0.90
0.50.5111.51.50Ridly GreigF3:16+1.31Philip TomasinoF3:43+1.31Christian KyrouD3:43+1.31Kasper HalttunenF3:43+1.31Jaxon CoverF3:43+1.31Ryan SuzukiF1:21+0.21Philippe DaoustF1:30+0.09Tyler BoucherF1:30+0.09Xavier BourgaultF1:27+0.09Ben HuttonD1:30+0.08Scott HarringtonD0:09+0.00
0.250.250Djibril ToureD0:22+0.00Ben HuttonD1:09-0.04Ridly GreigF1:09-0.04Oskar PetterssonF1:09-0.04Cameron CrottyD0:47-0.04
MTL
against for own net ice time
0.50.5111.51.5220Luke MittelstadtD20:07+1.09Alexandre CarrierD19:26+0.88Phillip DanaultF14:02+0.65Juraj SlafkovskýF16:59+0.53Tyler ThorpeF10:22+0.42Cole CaufieldF17:06+0.30Alexandre TexierF12:04+0.21Chris KreiderF15:21+0.20Owen BeckF13:02+0.18Nick SuzukiF18:05+0.17Alex NewhookF15:19+0.14Maksymilian SzuberD15:02+0.11Florian XhekajF13:23+0.09Ethan SamsonD12:34-0.08Jake EvansF13:10-0.37Josh AndersonF12:25-0.68Mike MathesonD26:02-0.78Noah DobsonD26:11-0.91
0.50.5111.51.50Luke MittelstadtD15:46+1.17Alexandre CarrierD15:23+0.97Phillip DanaultF11:38+0.74Alex NewhookF13:14+0.59Mike MathesonD18:47+0.57Juraj SlafkovskýF14:38+0.49Chris KreiderF12:06+0.45Cole CaufieldF13:10+0.43Tyler ThorpeF10:11+0.42Noah DobsonD17:34+0.41Owen BeckF12:15+0.41Florian XhekajF12:22+0.32Nick SuzukiF13:55+0.30Jake EvansF8:30+0.22Alexandre TexierF9:30+0.21Josh AndersonF9:21+0.12Maksymilian SzuberD14:03+0.11Ethan SamsonD12:27-0.08
0.250.250Chris KreiderF1:09+0.04Nick SuzukiF1:09+0.04Noah DobsonD1:09+0.04Cole CaufieldF1:09+0.04Juraj SlafkovskýF1:09+0.04
0.50.5111.51.50Juraj SlafkovskýF0:14+0.00Luke MittelstadtD1:55-0.08Alexandre CarrierD1:41-0.08Phillip DanaultF1:26-0.08Nick SuzukiF0:14-0.13Florian XhekajF0:43-0.23Owen BeckF0:29-0.23Chris KreiderF1:01-0.28Alex NewhookF0:56-0.45Jake EvansF2:11-0.59Josh AndersonF2:16-0.80Mike MathesonD3:56-1.31Noah DobsonD3:20-1.31

Lines & pairs

all · whole game · this game
most-used units · when they played · on-ice xG lines are by strength · 5v5 shown
strength
period
sort
How to read this

The units that actually played together most at the chosen strength — forward lines and defence pairs at 5v5, the whole group on the ice on the power play or the kill — each with when it was on the ice at that strength across the game clock (period and power-play bands behind the strip) and on-ice xG against / for while the whole unit was out, at that strength only. Sorted by time together; pick another key to re-order, and a name opens the player's page. Pick a period and the strip veils the rest of the game while the bars re-lay for that period alone, on the whole game's scale.

OTT
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF
MTL
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF

Matchups

5v5 · this game
every skater against every skater, goalies first · hover a cell
order
OTT won the chances MTL won them full colour = a margin of 0.75 xG or more taller = more time together (full height at 12:00) on together, dead even never on together G = goalie: his row or column is each skater against the whole other team
FowlerMontembeaultDanaultNewhookSlafkovskýKreiderSuzukiCaufieldBeckXhekajThorpeAndersonEvansTexierMathesonDobsonCarrierMittelstadtSamsonSzuberGL1L2L3FD1D2D3DGL1L2L3L4D1D2D3ErssonBlaisTomasinoGreigSuzukiBoucherHalttunenDaoustBourgaultCoverPetterssonNemecHarringtonCrottyHuttonMatinpaloBolducToureKyrou
How to read this

Rows are OTT's skaters, columns MTL's, grouped the way they played: forward lines (L1 = the line that played together most), then defence pairs. Each cell covers the five-on-five time those two players shared the ice. Its colour is the club that out-chanced the other in that time — expected goals for minus against — and the stronger the colour, the bigger the margin. Each cell is also raised: the taller the block, the longer the two shared the ice, up to full height at 12:00 of five-on-five time. A grey cell means they met and it came out even; an open, flat one means they never met at five-on-five.

The first row and column are the goalies. A goalie is in net for every five-on-five second, so a skater's cell against the other side's goalie is all of that skater's five-on-five time against that team — the rest of his row or column added up — and the corner where the two goalies meet is the game's five-on-five. Those cells cover far more time than any pair, so they reach full colour sooner and stand at full height, a wall along each edge of the grid. A goalie change adds a second goalie row or column, each covering his own time.

Linemates share the ice, so a line against a line reads as a block. The margin is a total, not a rate: a long matchup has room to build a big gap and a thirty-second one does not — which is what the height is there to show: a tall, strong cell is the game's story; a short, strong one is a moment. Hover (or tap) any cell for the exact time together, the xG each way, attempts and goals. One game — a strong cell is what happened, not what would happen again.