xJawn NHL expected goals

← Players

CBJ Elvis Merzlikins

G · 2025-26 · regular season · 30 GP · 1,395 min 5v5 TOI

On-ice xGF% 5v5
49.5%(50th)
On-ice GF / GA 5v5
70 / 65
GA / xGA 5v5
65 / 60.3
Saving 5v5
-4.7
Saving rating modeled
-0.02(31st)

On-ice xG shot map

How to read this map

One rink, both ends while Elvis Merzlikins is on the ice: what the team generates on the left, what it concedes on the right. Every attempt is a Gaussian bump of height = its model xG, summed per 60 minutes of ice time (a player's exposure is time, not games). The controls switch the surface (xG heatmapvs league, the league baseline per team-hour at the same strength) and the markers: × goal · on net · missed · small blocked.

The page opens at 5v5; empty-net attempts are excluded throughout. The league-spread histograms and the xGF% percentile rank against the other goalies over the display floor at the selected strength — a non-strength filter (rush, period, …) moves the player's markers but keeps that strength's spread as the backdrop. On-ice membership comes from the shift charts; attempts without usable shift coverage are absent from both ends. Blocked-shot membership cannot be cross-checked against the play-by-play, so treat blocked-marker detail as softer than the rest.

on-ice for◀ 5v5 offense
on-ice against5v5 defense ▶
Goals51.9%70
48.1%65
xG49.5%59.3
50.5%60.3
xG/6049.5%2.55
50.5%2.59
Shots50.1%635
49.9%632
Attempts50.7%1,383
49.3%1,346

Rolling on-ice xGF%

Strength splits

On-ice rates are per 60 minutes at that strength (real time-on-ice), own perspective — a skater's PP row is their team's power play while they are out there.

StrengthTOI/gmxGFxGAxGF%xGF/60xGA/60GFGA
5v546.5 59.360.349.5% 2.552.597065
Power play3.5 13.21.192.3% 7.580.63141
Penalty kill4.4 1.520.37.0% 0.699.10127

Modeled saving

The decontaminated saving rating from the joint shooter/goalie fit: Elvis Merzlikins's per-shot logit margin suppressing goals on attempts at their net, multi-season, time-decayed, positive = good — -0.02 (31st percentile, 15,805 shots informing it). Per-shot quality only: it says nothing about how many attempts a player generates or faces.

On-ice numbers pair the regular-season shot set with shift-chart membership; skaters and goalies under the display floors are fit but not shown. Ratings come from joint__baseline_xg__bbd50047 (as of 2026-06-14). Both are separate surfaces from the box-score xG model badged in the footer.