Today's games

Today's puzzle Remember Some Guys — name the skater from the shape of his career. Three clues, one guess a day. Play →

Win probabilities from the Poisson matchup engine (matchup__5184e7b0) — team xG-rate ratings → expected goals → a score grid. Every number below was issued before puck drop and is scored honestly against the result. How it works & why it can lose to a logistic.

Slate

Date

Matchup	Status	The call	Expected goals	xG so far
NYR @ EDM	final 3–1	EDM 55%	2.96–3.25	—
PHI @ VAN		PHI 55%	3.06–2.78	—
NYI @ SJS		NYI 56%	3.33–2.94	—

Matchup

Status

The call

Expected goals

NYR @ EDM

final 3–1

EDM 55%

2.96–3.25

PHI @ VAN

PHI 55%

3.06–2.78

NYI @ SJS

NYI 56%

3.33–2.94

Matchup	Status	The call	Expected goals	xG so far
FLA @ BOS	final 4–1	BOS 63%	2.62–3.44	—
VGK @ BUF	final 1–4	VGK 50%	3.02–3.03	—
TBL @ WPG	final 4–3	TBL 58%	3.22–2.73	—
NJD @ TOR	final 0–4	TOR 51%	2.94–3.04	—
PHI @ CGY	final 4–3	PHI 52%	2.79–2.69	—
PIT @ ANA	final 5–2	ANA 55%	3.39–3.74	—

Matchup

Status

The call

Expected goals

FLA @ BOS

final 4–1

BOS 63%

2.62–3.44

VGK @ BUF

final 1–4

VGK 50%

3.02–3.03

TBL @ WPG

final 4–3

TBL 58%

3.22–2.73

NJD @ TOR

final 0–4

TOR 51%

2.94–3.04

PHI @ CGY

final 4–3

PHI 52%

2.79–2.69

PIT @ ANA

final 5–2

ANA 55%

3.39–3.74

Matchup	Status	The call	Expected goals	xG so far
FLA @ WSH	final 4–3	WSH 57%	2.93–3.38	—
STL @ NSH	final 3–1	STL 51%	3.11–3.07	—
NYR @ SEA	final 3–4	NYR 51%	3.03–2.94	—
MTL @ TOR	final 2–4	MTL 53%	3.28–3.10	—
UTA @ OTT	final 4–2	OTT 51%	3.08–3.13	—
NJD @ NYI	final 4–5	NYI 55%	2.76–3.07	—
CHI @ CAR	final 9–2	CAR 78%	2.24–4.12	—
SJS @ DAL	final 4–3	DAL 72%	2.32–3.74	—
TBL @ MIN	final 3–4	TBL 60%	3.45–2.82	—
DET @ COL	final 4–0	COL 67%	2.59–3.68	—
PIT @ LAK	final 2–5	LAK 54%	3.02–3.28	—
VAN @ EDM	final 4–2	EDM 72%	2.64–4.10	—

Matchup

Status

The call

Expected goals

FLA @ WSH

final 4–3

WSH 57%

2.93–3.38

STL @ NSH

final 3–1

STL 51%

3.11–3.07

NYR @ SEA

final 3–4

NYR 51%

3.03–2.94

MTL @ TOR

final 2–4

MTL 53%

3.28–3.10

UTA @ OTT

final 4–2

OTT 51%

3.08–3.13

NJD @ NYI

final 4–5

NYI 55%

2.76–3.07

CHI @ CAR

final 9–2

CAR 78%

2.24–4.12

SJS @ DAL

final 4–3

DAL 72%

2.32–3.74

TBL @ MIN

final 3–4

TBL 60%

3.45–2.82

DET @ COL

final 4–0

COL 67%

2.59–3.68

PIT @ LAK

final 2–5

LAK 54%

3.02–3.28

VAN @ EDM

final 4–2

EDM 72%

2.64–4.10

Matchup	Status	The call	Expected goals	xG so far
CBJ @ BUF	final 5–2	BUF 59%	2.77–3.31	—
SJS @ MIN	final 4–1	MIN 67%	2.63–3.72	—
ANA @ CGY	final 3–5	CGY 54%	3.03–3.26	—

Matchup

Status

The call

Expected goals

CBJ @ BUF

final 5–2

BUF 59%

2.77–3.31

SJS @ MIN

final 4–1

MIN 67%

2.63–3.72

ANA @ CGY

final 3–5

CGY 54%

3.03–3.26

Matchup	Status	The call	Expected goals	xG so far
UTA @ MTL	final 5–4	MTL 50%	3.17–3.21	—
VGK @ DET	final 1–2	VGK 56%	3.03–2.66	—
CHI @ TBL	final 4–1	TBL 83%	2.16–4.52	—
STL @ NJD	final 5–4	NJD 52%	2.83–2.95	—
CAR @ NYI	final 3–5	CAR 56%	3.20–2.86	—
PHI @ NYR	final 3–2	NYR 59%	2.57–3.07	—
BOS @ PIT	final 2–6	PIT 51%	3.36–3.41	—
DAL @ CBJ	final 2–1	CBJ 51%	2.78–2.81	—
VAN @ WPG	final 6–2	WPG 62%	2.70–3.42	—
ANA @ EDM	final 4–5	EDM 59%	3.08–3.68	—
NSH @ COL	final 2–3	COL 67%	2.76–3.86	—

Matchup

Status

The call

Expected goals

UTA @ MTL

final 5–4

MTL 50%

3.17–3.21

VGK @ DET

final 1–2

VGK 56%

3.03–2.66

CHI @ TBL

final 4–1

TBL 83%

2.16–4.52

STL @ NJD

final 5–4

NJD 52%

2.83–2.95

CAR @ NYI

final 3–5

CAR 56%

3.20–2.86

PHI @ NYR

final 3–2

NYR 59%

2.57–3.07

BOS @ PIT

final 2–6

PIT 51%

3.36–3.41

DAL @ CBJ

final 2–1

CBJ 51%

2.78–2.81

VAN @ WPG

final 6–2

WPG 62%

2.70–3.42

ANA @ EDM

final 4–5

EDM 59%

3.08–3.68

NSH @ COL

final 2–3

COL 67%

2.76–3.86

Matchup	Status	The call	Expected goals	xG so far
OTT @ BUF	final 1–2	BUF 55%	2.99–3.33	—
CHI @ FLA	final 5–3	FLA 70%	2.40–3.63	—
SJS @ LAK	final 7–2	LAK 62%	2.62–3.31	—
CGY @ SEA	final 2–1	SEA 58%	2.73–3.20	—

Matchup

Status

The call

Expected goals

OTT @ BUF

final 1–2

BUF 55%

2.99–3.33

CHI @ FLA

final 5–3

FLA 70%

2.40–3.63

SJS @ LAK

final 7–2

LAK 62%

2.62–3.31

CGY @ SEA

final 2–1

SEA 58%

2.73–3.20

Matchup	Status	The call	Expected goals	xG so far
UTA @ TOR	final 2–3	UTA 57%	3.41–3.03	—
WPG @ MTL	final 4–5	MTL 64%	2.52–3.37	—
DET @ TBL	final 4–2	TBL 70%	2.46–3.76	—
STL @ NYR	final 3–1	NYR 53%	2.89–3.08	—
MIN @ PHI	final 2–4	MIN 53%	2.88–2.73	—
VGK @ PIT	final 2–3	PIT 52%	3.11–3.27	—
DAL @ WSH	final 5–6	WSH 51%	2.97–3.05	—
COL @ CBJ	final 7–2	COL 52%	3.07–3.00	—
EDM @ NJD	final 4–3	NJD 51%	3.02–3.09	—
CAR @ NSH	final 4–1	CAR 61%	3.53–2.86	—
ANA @ VAN	final 4–5	ANA 60%	3.75–3.13	—

Matchup

Status

The call

Expected goals

UTA @ TOR

final 2–3

UTA 57%

3.41–3.03

WPG @ MTL

final 4–5

MTL 64%

2.52–3.37

DET @ TBL

final 4–2

TBL 70%

2.46–3.76

STL @ NYR

final 3–1

NYR 53%

2.89–3.08

MIN @ PHI

final 2–4

MIN 53%

2.88–2.73

VGK @ PIT

final 2–3

PIT 52%

3.11–3.27

DAL @ WSH

final 5–6

WSH 51%

2.97–3.05

COL @ CBJ

final 7–2

COL 52%

3.07–3.00

EDM @ NJD

final 4–3

NJD 51%

3.02–3.09

CAR @ NSH

final 4–1

CAR 61%

3.53–2.86

ANA @ VAN

final 4–5

ANA 60%

3.75–3.13

Matchup	Status	The call	Expected goals	xG so far
VGK @ BOS	final 3–2	VGK 50%	2.97–2.99	—
DET @ FLA	final 3–5	FLA 58%	2.70–3.15	—
COL @ CHI	final 2–5	COL 73%	4.02–2.49	—
CGY @ SJS	final 1–2	SJS 53%	2.94–3.12	—

Matchup

Status

The call

Expected goals

VGK @ BOS

final 3–2

VGK 50%

2.97–2.99

DET @ FLA

final 3–5

FLA 58%

2.70–3.15

COL @ CHI

final 2–5

COL 73%

4.02–2.49

CGY @ SJS

final 1–2

SJS 53%

2.94–3.12

Matchup	Status	The call	Expected goals	xG so far
WPG @ CAR	final 7–0	CAR 70%	2.35–3.57	—
MIN @ WSH	final 1–5	WSH 55%	3.03–3.34	—
UTA @ PHI	final 6–3	UTA 57%	3.11–2.73	—
EDM @ NYR	final 1–4	NYR 58%	2.89–3.41	—
OTT @ ANA	final 6–3	ANA 52%	3.10–3.28	—

Matchup

Status

The call

Expected goals

WPG @ CAR

final 7–0

CAR 70%

2.35–3.57

MIN @ WSH

final 1–5

WSH 55%

3.03–3.34

UTA @ PHI

final 6–3

UTA 57%

3.11–2.73

EDM @ NYR

final 1–4

NYR 58%

2.89–3.41

OTT @ ANA

final 6–3

ANA 52%

3.10–3.28

Matchup	Status	The call	Expected goals	xG so far
CHI @ BOS	final 5–4	BOS 74%	2.37–3.96	—
STL @ DET	final 4–5	STL 51%	2.94–2.89	—
TBL @ NSH	final 5–4	TBL 63%	3.63–2.81	—
EDM @ NYI	final 0–4	EDM 51%	3.15–3.10	—
BUF @ LAK	final 2–3	BUF 51%	3.02–2.93	—
OTT @ SJS	final 1–5	OTT 56%	3.34–2.96	—
PIT @ MTL	final 5–4	MTL 53%	3.25–3.45	—
TOR @ VAN	final 2–4	TOR 59%	3.56–2.96	—
CBJ @ DAL	final 3–1	DAL 57%	2.56–2.96	—
CGY @ COL	final 5–2	COL 76%	2.30–4.03	—

Matchup

Status

The call

Expected goals

CHI @ BOS

final 5–4

BOS 74%

2.37–3.96

STL @ DET

final 4–5

STL 51%

2.94–2.89

TBL @ NSH

final 5–4

TBL 63%

3.63–2.81

EDM @ NYI

final 0–4

EDM 51%

3.15–3.10

BUF @ LAK

final 2–3

BUF 51%

3.02–2.93

OTT @ SJS

final 1–5

OTT 56%

3.34–2.96

PIT @ MTL

final 5–4

MTL 53%

3.25–3.45

TOR @ VAN

final 2–4

TOR 59%

3.56–2.96

CBJ @ DAL

final 3–1

DAL 57%

2.56–2.96

CGY @ COL

final 5–2

COL 76%

2.30–4.03

Matchup	Status	The call	Expected goals	xG so far
NJD @ VGK	final 2–5	VGK 62%	2.48–3.19	—
WPG @ FLA	final 5–2	FLA 65%	2.42–3.32	—
SEA @ CGY	final 6–2	CGY 50%	2.91–2.90	—

Matchup

Status

The call

Expected goals

NJD @ VGK

final 2–5

VGK 62%

2.48–3.19

WPG @ FLA

final 5–2

FLA 65%

2.42–3.32

SEA @ CGY

final 6–2

CGY 50%

2.91–2.90

Matchup	Status	The call	Expected goals	xG so far
WPG @ TBL	final 6–4	TBL 68%	2.44–3.53	—
UTA @ PIT	final 3–4	UTA 50%	3.43–3.41	—
CBJ @ CAR	final 3–2	CAR 63%	2.61–3.39	—
CHI @ DET	final 4–1	DET 65%	2.50–3.43	—
BOS @ STL	final 4–1	STL 51%	3.03–3.04	—
WSH @ NSH	final 3–4	NSH 50%	3.24–3.26	—
MTL @ DAL	final 2–5	DAL 59%	2.62–3.16	—
NYI @ MIN	final 3–4	MIN 58%	2.75–3.20	—
BUF @ ANA	final 6–7	BUF 53%	3.45–3.24	—
OTT @ LAK	final 6–5	OTT 50%	2.78–2.78	—
VAN @ SJS	final 3–2	SJS 63%	2.94–3.74	—

Matchup

Status

The call

Expected goals

WPG @ TBL

final 6–4

TBL 68%

2.44–3.53

UTA @ PIT

final 3–4

UTA 50%

3.43–3.41

CBJ @ CAR

final 3–2

CAR 63%

2.61–3.39

CHI @ DET

final 4–1

DET 65%

2.50–3.43

BOS @ STL

final 4–1

STL 51%

3.03–3.04

WSH @ NSH

final 3–4

NSH 50%

3.24–3.26

MTL @ DAL

final 2–5

DAL 59%

2.62–3.16

NYI @ MIN

final 3–4

MIN 58%

2.75–3.20

BUF @ ANA

final 6–7

BUF 53%

3.45–3.24

OTT @ LAK

final 6–5

OTT 50%

2.78–2.78

VAN @ SJS

final 3–2

SJS 63%

2.94–3.74

Matchup	Status	The call	Expected goals	xG so far
PHI @ WSH	final 5–2	WSH 65%	2.51–3.45	—
CGY @ EDM	final 4–0	EDM 64%	2.65–3.49	—
NJD @ COL	final 5–2	COL 70%	2.47–3.75	—
TOR @ SEA	final 5–4	SEA 52%	3.04–3.15	—

Matchup

Status

The call

Expected goals

PHI @ WSH

final 5–2

WSH 65%

2.51–3.45

CGY @ EDM

final 4–0

EDM 64%

2.65–3.49

NJD @ COL

final 5–2

COL 70%

2.47–3.75

TOR @ SEA

final 5–4

SEA 52%

3.04–3.15

Matchup	Status	The call	Expected goals	xG so far
CBJ @ PHI	final 3–4	CBJ 53%	2.83–2.64	—
BOS @ CAR	final 2–1	CAR 58%	2.92–3.40	—
LAK @ CHI	final 2–1	LAK 54%	2.95–2.71	—
MTL @ STL	final 0–2	STL 53%	2.94–3.10	—
NYI @ NSH	final 3–4	NYI 50%	3.02–3.01	—
NJD @ DAL	final 1–5	DAL 61%	2.50–3.19	—
FLA @ WPG	final 1–5	FLA 50%	2.80–2.80	—
MIN @ UTA	final 1–3	UTA 58%	2.88–3.35	—
OTT @ VGK	final 4–1	VGK 59%	2.63–3.17	—
VAN @ ANA	final 5–6	ANA 67%	2.87–4.00	—
BUF @ SJS	final 0–2	BUF 57%	3.53–3.10	—

Matchup

Status

The call

Expected goals

CBJ @ PHI

final 3–4

CBJ 53%

2.83–2.64

BOS @ CAR

final 2–1

CAR 58%

2.92–3.40

LAK @ CHI

final 2–1

LAK 54%

2.95–2.71

MTL @ STL

final 0–2

STL 53%

2.94–3.10

NYI @ NSH

final 3–4

NYI 50%

3.02–3.01

NJD @ DAL

final 1–5

DAL 61%

2.50–3.19

FLA @ WPG

final 1–5

FLA 50%

2.80–2.80

MIN @ UTA

final 1–3

UTA 58%

2.88–3.35

OTT @ VGK

final 4–1

VGK 59%

2.63–3.17

VAN @ ANA

final 5–6

ANA 67%

2.87–4.00

BUF @ SJS

final 0–2

BUF 57%

3.53–3.10

Matchup	Status	The call	Expected goals	xG so far
LAK @ NYR	final 3–6	NYR 56%	2.58–2.97	—
TOR @ CGY	final 5–2	CGY 51%	3.01–3.03	—
DET @ EDM	final 3–4	EDM 60%	2.78–3.41	—

Matchup

Status

The call

Expected goals

LAK @ NYR

final 3–6

NYR 56%

2.58–2.97

TOR @ CGY

final 5–2

CGY 51%

3.01–3.03

DET @ EDM

final 3–4

EDM 60%

2.78–3.41

Matchup	Status	The call	Expected goals	xG so far
FLA @ CHI	final 2–3	FLA 59%	3.25–2.71	—
NYI @ DAL	final 6–3	DAL 59%	2.55–3.08	—
MTL @ WPG	final 1–2	MTL 53%	3.00–2.80	—
COL @ NSH	final 6–2	COL 66%	3.75–2.73	—
MIN @ VAN	final 2–4	MIN 59%	3.44–2.90	—

Matchup

Status

The call

Expected goals

FLA @ CHI

final 2–3

FLA 59%

3.25–2.71

NYI @ DAL

final 6–3

DAL 59%

2.55–3.08

MTL @ WPG

final 1–2

MTL 53%

3.00–2.80

COL @ NSH

final 6–2

COL 66%

3.75–2.73

MIN @ VAN

final 2–4

MIN 59%

3.44–2.90

Matchup	Status	The call	Expected goals	xG so far
ANA @ PHI	final 4–5	PHI 55%	2.79–3.05	—
LAK @ NJD	final 3–1	NJD 52%	2.73–2.85	—
SJS @ BOS	final 6–4	BOS 65%	2.72–3.69	—
NYR @ OTT	final 7–4	OTT 55%	2.75–3.01	—
NSH @ PIT	final 3–2	PIT 59%	3.08–3.65	—
BUF @ WSH	final 4–3	WSH 53%	3.26–3.46	—
VGK @ CBJ	final 2–1	VGK 51%	2.87–2.80	—
CAR @ STL	final 0–4	CAR 52%	3.06–2.98	—
TOR @ EDM	final 2–7	EDM 63%	2.84–3.66	—
TBL @ UTA	final 5–4	UTA 55%	3.03–3.31	—
DET @ CGY	final 4–1	DET 50%	2.91–2.89	—
MIN @ SEA	final 1–5	MIN 52%	3.05–2.94	—

Matchup

Status

The call

Expected goals

ANA @ PHI

final 4–5

PHI 55%

2.79–3.05

LAK @ NJD

final 3–1

NJD 52%

2.73–2.85

SJS @ BOS

final 6–4

BOS 65%

2.72–3.69

NYR @ OTT

final 7–4

OTT 55%

2.75–3.01

NSH @ PIT

final 3–2

PIT 59%

3.08–3.65

BUF @ WSH

final 4–3

WSH 53%

3.26–3.46

VGK @ CBJ

final 2–1

VGK 51%

2.87–2.80

CAR @ STL

final 0–4

CAR 52%

3.06–2.98

TOR @ EDM

final 2–7

EDM 63%

2.84–3.66

TBL @ UTA

final 5–4

UTA 55%

3.03–3.31

DET @ CGY

final 4–1

DET 50%

2.91–2.89

MIN @ SEA

final 1–5

MIN 52%

3.05–2.94

Matchup	Status	The call	Expected goals	xG so far
MTL @ CHI	final 1–4	MTL 63%	3.54–2.75	—
TBL @ COL	final 6–3	COL 56%	3.01–3.34	—

Matchup	Status	The call	Expected goals	xG so far
NSH @ BOS	final 6–0	BOS 58%	2.87–3.33	—
NYR @ TOR	final 5–4	NYR 54%	3.12–2.90	—
SJS @ OTT	final 2–6	OTT 58%	2.81–3.29	—
ANA @ NJD	final 4–1	NJD 57%	2.93–3.37	—
FLA @ PIT	final 4–0	PIT 59%	2.93–3.50	—
LAK @ NYI	final 2–3	NYI 54%	2.64–2.88	—
VGK @ STL	final 6–2	VGK 51%	2.91–2.85	—
WPG @ DAL	final 3–2	DAL 62%	2.37–3.09	—
MIN @ CGY	final 2–1	MIN 56%	3.16–2.78	—
CAR @ EDM	final 6–5	CAR 51%	3.21–3.18	—
UTA @ SEA	final 5–3	UTA 57%	3.36–2.95	—
DET @ VAN	final 2–5	DET 58%	3.35–2.87	—

Matchup

Status

The call

Expected goals

NSH @ BOS

final 6–0

BOS 58%

2.87–3.33

NYR @ TOR

final 5–4

NYR 54%

3.12–2.90

SJS @ OTT

final 2–6

OTT 58%

2.81–3.29

ANA @ NJD

final 4–1

NJD 57%

2.93–3.37

FLA @ PIT

final 4–0

PIT 59%

2.93–3.50

LAK @ NYI

final 2–3

NYI 54%

2.64–2.88

VGK @ STL

final 6–2

VGK 51%

2.91–2.85

WPG @ DAL

final 3–2

DAL 62%

2.37–3.09

MIN @ CGY

final 2–1

MIN 56%

3.16–2.78

CAR @ EDM

final 6–5

CAR 51%

3.21–3.18

UTA @ SEA

final 5–3

UTA 57%

3.36–2.95

DET @ VAN

final 2–5

DET 58%

3.35–2.87

Matchup	Status	The call	Expected goals	xG so far
PHI @ BUF	final 1–3	BUF 62%	2.51–3.25	—
FLA @ OTT	final 5–1	OTT 54%	2.77–3.02	—

Matchup	Status	The call	Expected goals	xG so far
SJS @ MTL	final 3–4	MTL 67%	2.60–3.72	—
COL @ NJD	final 4–3	COL 55%	3.23–2.92	—
ANA @ NYI	final 3–2	NYI 61%	2.76–3.45	—
LAK @ WSH	final 2–5	WSH 55%	2.77–3.11	—
TOR @ CBJ	final 2–6	CBJ 65%	2.60–3.50	—
WPG @ STL	final 2–1	STL 60%	2.57–3.15	—
BOS @ DAL	final 3–2	DAL 56%	2.71–3.09	—
MIN @ EDM	final 4–3	EDM 55%	2.95–3.23	—
DET @ SEA	final 4–3	SEA 53%	2.92–3.10	—
CAR @ VAN	final 3–6	CAR 71%	3.93–2.58	—
TBL @ VGK	final 2–6	VGK 52%	2.91–2.98	—

Matchup

Status

The call

Expected goals

SJS @ MTL

final 3–4

MTL 67%

2.60–3.72

COL @ NJD

final 4–3

COL 55%

3.23–2.92

ANA @ NYI

final 3–2

NYI 61%

2.76–3.45

LAK @ WSH

final 2–5

WSH 55%

2.77–3.11

TOR @ CBJ

final 2–6

CBJ 65%

2.60–3.50

WPG @ STL

final 2–1

STL 60%

2.57–3.15

BOS @ DAL

final 3–2

DAL 56%

2.71–3.09

MIN @ EDM

final 4–3

EDM 55%

2.95–3.23

DET @ SEA

final 4–3

SEA 53%

2.92–3.10

CAR @ VAN

final 3–6

CAR 71%

3.93–2.58

TBL @ VGK

final 2–6

VGK 52%

2.91–2.98

Matchup	Status	The call	Expected goals	xG so far
ANA @ NYR	final 5–2	NYR 56%	2.87–3.27	—
COL @ PHI	final 3–2	COL 64%	3.28–2.48	—
SJS @ TOR	final 3–1	TOR 56%	2.94–3.32	—
PIT @ UTA	final 5–4	UTA 57%	3.11–3.56	—

Matchup

Status

The call

Expected goals

ANA @ NYR

final 5–2

NYR 56%

2.87–3.27

COL @ PHI

final 3–2

COL 64%

3.28–2.48

SJS @ TOR

final 3–1

TOR 56%

2.94–3.32

PIT @ UTA

final 5–4

UTA 57%

3.11–3.56

Matchup	Status	The call	Expected goals	xG so far
CBJ @ MIN	final 2–1	MIN 59%	2.70–3.23	—
CAR @ CGY	final 3–2	CAR 60%	3.31–2.72	—

Matchup	Status	The call	Expected goals	xG so far
NJD @ WSH	final 4–2	WSH 58%	2.83–3.36	—
CAR @ WPG	final 2–3	CAR 60%	3.23–2.65	—
VAN @ TBL	final 4–2	TBL 77%	2.36–4.17	—
SEA @ FLA	final 8–3	FLA 58%	2.71–3.17	—
NYI @ TOR	final 1–4	NYI 50%	3.03–3.03	—
BUF @ MTL	final 4–3	MTL 54%	3.03–3.29	—
SJS @ DET	final 4–3	DET 57%	2.86–3.27	—
OTT @ PHI	final 3–1	OTT 53%	2.77–2.61	—
NYR @ CBJ	final 1–0	CBJ 57%	2.73–3.14	—
DAL @ CHI	final 0–4	DAL 64%	3.33–2.47	—
STL @ NSH	final 5–2	STL 52%	3.03–2.93	—
BOS @ LAK	final 1–4	LAK 57%	2.68–3.05	—
EDM @ UTA	final 2–6	UTA 57%	2.98–3.44	—
PIT @ VGK	final 6–2	VGK 62%	2.76–3.48	—

Matchup

Status

The call

Expected goals

NJD @ WSH

final 4–2

WSH 58%

2.83–3.36

CAR @ WPG

final 2–3

CAR 60%

3.23–2.65

VAN @ TBL

final 4–2

TBL 77%

2.36–4.17

SEA @ FLA

final 8–3

FLA 58%

2.71–3.17

NYI @ TOR

final 1–4

NYI 50%

3.03–3.03

BUF @ MTL

final 4–3

MTL 54%

3.03–3.29

SJS @ DET

final 4–3

DET 57%

2.86–3.27

OTT @ PHI

final 3–1

OTT 53%

2.77–2.61

NYR @ CBJ

final 1–0

CBJ 57%

2.73–3.14

DAL @ CHI

final 0–4

DAL 64%

3.33–2.47

STL @ NSH

final 5–2

STL 52%

3.03–2.93

BOS @ LAK

final 1–4

LAK 57%

2.68–3.05

EDM @ UTA

final 2–6

UTA 57%

2.98–3.44

PIT @ VGK

final 6–2

VGK 62%

2.76–3.48

Matchup	Status	The call	Expected goals	xG so far
PIT @ COL	final 5–2	COL 63%	2.95–3.78	—
BOS @ ANA	final 2–4	BOS 51%	3.24–3.14	—

Matchup	Status	The call	Expected goals	xG so far
BUF @ TOR	final 4–5	BUF 53%	3.29–3.11	—
NYI @ OTT	final 2–1	OTT 56%	2.77–3.07	—
SEA @ TBL	final 4–3	TBL 68%	2.50–3.62	—
VAN @ FLA	final 3–2	FLA 68%	2.54–3.65	—
NYR @ NJD	final 7–1	NYR 52%	2.92–2.75	—
PHI @ DET	final 2–1	DET 54%	2.62–2.87	—
WPG @ CHI	final 4–3	WPG 56%	3.06–2.70	—
SJS @ NSH	final 2–3	NSH 58%	2.91–3.38	—
STL @ MIN	final 5–4	MIN 52%	2.88–2.98	—
UTA @ EDM	final 2–4	EDM 52%	3.19–3.33	—
CGY @ VGK	final 6–2	VGK 67%	2.35–3.35	—

Matchup

Status

The call

Expected goals

BUF @ TOR

final 4–5

BUF 53%

3.29–3.11

NYI @ OTT

final 2–1

OTT 56%

2.77–3.07

SEA @ TBL

final 4–3

TBL 68%

2.50–3.62

VAN @ FLA

final 3–2

FLA 68%

2.54–3.65

NYR @ NJD

final 7–1

NYR 52%

2.92–2.75

PHI @ DET

final 2–1

DET 54%

2.62–2.87

WPG @ CHI

final 4–3

WPG 56%

3.06–2.70

SJS @ NSH

final 2–3

NSH 58%

2.91–3.38

STL @ MIN

final 5–4

MIN 52%

2.88–2.98

UTA @ EDM

final 2–4

EDM 52%

3.19–3.33

CGY @ VGK

final 6–2

VGK 67%

2.35–3.35

Matchup	Status	The call	Expected goals	xG so far
MTL @ WSH	final 5–4	WSH 54%	3.04–3.26	—
DAL @ COL	final 2–3	COL 61%	2.62–3.23	—

Matchup	Status	The call	Expected goals	xG so far
NJD @ DET	final 4–5	DET 58%	2.64–3.15	—
FLA @ CBJ	final 3–7	CBJ 60%	2.57–3.18	—
BUF @ MTL	final 4–3	MTL 58%	2.91–3.43	—
WSH @ CAR	final 4–2	CAR 61%	2.83–3.51	—
SEA @ PHI	final 2–3	PHI 52%	2.77–2.85	—
TBL @ NYR	final 4–1	TBL 53%	3.00–2.83	—
STL @ OTT	final 2–7	STL 50%	2.92–2.87	—
VAN @ NYI	final 3–2	NYI 68%	2.56–3.71	—
PIT @ CHI	final 5–3	PIT 62%	3.63–2.86	—
MIN @ WPG	final 5–2	WPG 51%	2.76–2.81	—
COL @ DAL	final 2–3	COL 53%	3.05–2.90	—
VGK @ NSH	final 2–5	VGK 51%	2.90–2.88	—
TOR @ UTA	final 5–4	UTA 64%	2.85–3.70	—
CGY @ ANA	final 2–4	ANA 60%	2.80–3.41	—
EDM @ LAK	final 1–4	LAK 51%	2.92–2.99	—
BOS @ SJS	final 3–6	BOS 55%	3.28–2.96	—

Matchup

Status

The call

Expected goals

NJD @ DET

final 4–5

DET 58%

2.64–3.15

FLA @ CBJ

final 3–7

CBJ 60%

2.57–3.18

BUF @ MTL

final 4–3

MTL 58%

2.91–3.43

WSH @ CAR

final 4–2

CAR 61%

2.83–3.51

SEA @ PHI

final 2–3

PHI 52%

2.77–2.85

TBL @ NYR

final 4–1

TBL 53%

3.00–2.83

STL @ OTT

final 2–7

STL 50%

2.92–2.87

VAN @ NYI

final 3–2

NYI 68%

2.56–3.71

PIT @ CHI

final 5–3

PIT 62%

3.63–2.86

MIN @ WPG

final 5–2

WPG 51%

2.76–2.81

COL @ DAL

final 2–3

COL 53%

3.05–2.90

VGK @ NSH

final 2–5

VGK 51%

2.90–2.88

TOR @ UTA

final 5–4

UTA 64%

2.85–3.70

CGY @ ANA

final 2–4

ANA 60%

2.80–3.41

EDM @ LAK

final 1–4

LAK 51%

2.92–2.99

BOS @ SJS

final 3–6

BOS 55%

3.28–2.96

Matchup	Status	The call	Expected goals	xG so far
FLA @ BUF	final 5–3	BUF 55%	2.84–3.18	—
OTT @ NJD	final 1–4	OTT 52%	2.95–2.80	—
VGK @ MIN	final 4–2	VGK 51%	2.80–2.78	—

Matchup

Status

The call

Expected goals

FLA @ BUF

final 5–3

BUF 55%

2.84–3.18

OTT @ NJD

final 1–4

OTT 52%

2.95–2.80

VGK @ MIN

final 4–2

VGK 51%

2.80–2.78

Matchup	Status	The call	Expected goals	xG so far
SEA @ WSH	final 3–5	WSH 61%	2.82–3.50	—
VAN @ NYR	final 6–2	NYR 72%	2.35–3.80	—
CAR @ PHI	final 1–4	CAR 59%	3.04–2.54	—

Matchup

Status

The call

Expected goals

SEA @ WSH

final 3–5

WSH 61%

2.82–3.50

VAN @ NYR

final 6–2

NYR 72%

2.35–3.80

CAR @ PHI

final 1–4

CAR 59%

3.04–2.54

Matchup	Status	The call	Expected goals	xG so far
PHI @ BOS	final 5–1	BOS 58%	2.60–3.06	—
VAN @ NJD	final 4–1	NJD 63%	2.75–3.54	—
EDM @ SJS	final 1–3	EDM 59%	3.57–2.98	—
MIN @ FLA	final 1–4	FLA 52%	2.84–2.93	—
UTA @ BUF	final 1–4	BUF 55%	3.08–3.41	—
DET @ MTL	final 1–0	MTL 65%	2.60–3.57	—
NSH @ OTT	final 3–2	OTT 58%	2.76–3.23	—
DAL @ PIT	final 2–1	DAL 54%	3.26–2.98	—
CAR @ CHI	final 2–5	CAR 69%	3.68–2.51	—
CBJ @ STL	final 5–3	STL 56%	2.73–3.10	—
TOR @ COL	final 3–6	COL 71%	2.57–3.90	—
TBL @ NYI	final 3–5	TBL 56%	3.19–2.81	—
ANA @ CGY	final 2–4	CGY 52%	3.00–3.16	—
LAK @ VGK	final 2–1	VGK 58%	2.51–2.96	—

Matchup

Status

The call

Expected goals

PHI @ BOS

final 5–1

BOS 58%

2.60–3.06

VAN @ NJD

final 4–1

NJD 63%

2.75–3.54

EDM @ SJS

final 1–3

EDM 59%

3.57–2.98

MIN @ FLA

final 1–4

FLA 52%

2.84–2.93

UTA @ BUF

final 1–4

BUF 55%

3.08–3.41

DET @ MTL

final 1–0

MTL 65%

2.60–3.57

NSH @ OTT

final 3–2

OTT 58%

2.76–3.23

DAL @ PIT

final 2–1

DAL 54%

3.26–2.98

CAR @ CHI

final 2–5

CAR 69%

3.68–2.51

CBJ @ STL

final 5–3

STL 56%

2.73–3.10

TOR @ COL

final 3–6

COL 71%

2.57–3.90

TBL @ NYI

final 3–5

TBL 56%

3.19–2.81

ANA @ CGY

final 2–4

CGY 52%

3.00–3.16

LAK @ VGK

final 2–1

VGK 58%

2.51–2.96

Matchup	Status	The call	Expected goals	xG so far
SEA @ DET	final 3–6	DET 57%	2.73–3.12	—
NYR @ WSH	final 3–1	WSH 54%	2.91–3.15	—
PIT @ CBJ	final 3–2	CBJ 55%	3.05–3.35	—
ANA @ WPG	final 1–5	WPG 51%	2.98–3.06	—

Matchup

Status

The call

Expected goals

SEA @ DET

final 3–6

DET 57%

2.73–3.12

NYR @ WSH

final 3–1

WSH 54%

2.91–3.15

PIT @ CBJ

final 3–2

CBJ 55%

3.05–3.35

ANA @ WPG

final 1–5

WPG 51%

2.98–3.06

Matchup	Status	The call	Expected goals	xG so far
UTA @ BOS	final 6–1	BOS 50%	3.05–3.09	—
DAL @ BUF	final 0–4	BUF 55%	2.89–3.16	—
NSH @ MTL	final 2–5	MTL 58%	2.89–3.41	—
PHI @ OTT	final 2–1	OTT 59%	2.52–3.01	—
MIN @ TBL	final 3–2	TBL 61%	2.65–3.29	—
VAN @ CAR	final 7–2	CAR 73%	2.49–3.99	—
CHI @ NYI	final 4–1	NYI 66%	2.53–3.53	—
SJS @ STL	final 2–3	STL 63%	2.63–3.38	—
COL @ CGY	final 3–7	COL 63%	3.42–2.64	—
TOR @ VGK	final 4–3	VGK 65%	2.57–3.43	—

Matchup

Status

The call

Expected goals

UTA @ BOS

final 6–1

BOS 50%

3.05–3.09

DAL @ BUF

final 0–4

BUF 55%

2.89–3.16

NSH @ MTL

final 2–5

MTL 58%

2.89–3.41

PHI @ OTT

final 2–1

OTT 59%

2.52–3.01

MIN @ TBL

final 3–2

TBL 61%

2.65–3.29

VAN @ CAR

final 7–2

CAR 73%

2.49–3.99

CHI @ NYI

final 4–1

NYI 66%

2.53–3.53

SJS @ STL

final 2–3

STL 63%

2.63–3.38

COL @ CGY

final 3–7

COL 63%

3.42–2.64

TOR @ VGK

final 4–3

VGK 65%

2.57–3.43

Matchup	Status	The call	Expected goals	xG so far
PIT @ WSH	final 5–3	WSH 52%	3.27–3.43	—
COL @ WPG	final 3–2	COL 65%	3.47–2.57	—
EDM @ ANA	final 2–5	EDM 51%	3.39–3.33	—

Matchup

Status

The call

Expected goals

PIT @ WSH

final 5–3

WSH 52%

3.27–3.43

COL @ WPG

final 3–2

COL 65%

3.47–2.57

EDM @ ANA

final 2–5

EDM 51%

3.39–3.33

Matchup	Status	The call	Expected goals	xG so far
NSH @ TOR	final 5–4	TOR 52%	3.06–3.18	—
CAR @ MTL	final 4–6	CAR 50%	3.09–3.11	—
OTT @ DET	final 5–3	DET 52%	2.81–2.96	—
UTA @ NJD	final 3–5	UTA 54%	3.13–2.89	—
MIN @ BUF	final 3–2	BUF 55%	2.97–3.25	—
NYI @ NYR	final 5–2	NYR 56%	2.68–3.05	—
STL @ CHI	final 4–2	STL 61%	3.35–2.67	—
VGK @ SEA	final 2–6	VGK 58%	3.08–2.63	—
FLA @ LAK	final 1–2	LAK 54%	2.69–2.89	—

Matchup

Status

The call

Expected goals

NSH @ TOR

final 5–4

TOR 52%

3.06–3.18

CAR @ MTL

final 4–6

CAR 50%

3.09–3.11

OTT @ DET

final 5–3

DET 52%

2.81–2.96

UTA @ NJD

final 3–5

UTA 54%

3.13–2.89

MIN @ BUF

final 3–2

BUF 55%

2.97–3.25

NYI @ NYR

final 5–2

NYR 56%

2.68–3.05

STL @ CHI

final 4–2

STL 61%

3.35–2.67

VGK @ SEA

final 2–6

VGK 58%

3.08–2.63

FLA @ LAK

final 1–2

LAK 54%

2.69–2.89

Matchup	Status	The call	Expected goals	xG so far
PHI @ TBL	final 4–1	TBL 66%	2.46–3.41	—
OTT @ BOS	final 1–4	OTT 52%	2.96–2.86	—
WPG @ PIT	final 2–3	PIT 66%	2.62–3.62	—
SJS @ DAL	final 5–0	DAL 64%	2.59–3.45	—

Matchup

Status

The call

Expected goals

PHI @ TBL

final 4–1

TBL 66%

2.46–3.41

OTT @ BOS

final 1–4

OTT 52%

2.96–2.86

WPG @ PIT

final 2–3

PIT 66%

2.62–3.62

SJS @ DAL

final 5–0

DAL 64%

2.59–3.45

Matchup	Status	The call	Expected goals	xG so far
WPG @ DET	final 2–3	DET 53%	2.72–2.91	—
UTA @ NYR	final 4–2	NYR 55%	2.79–3.11	—
FLA @ ANA	final 3–2	ANA 54%	3.03–3.26	—
CGY @ SEA	final 6–1	SEA 58%	2.66–3.13	—
VGK @ VAN	final 2–3	VGK 69%	3.66–2.47	—

Matchup

Status

The call

Expected goals

WPG @ DET

final 2–3

DET 53%

2.72–2.91

UTA @ NYR

final 4–2

NYR 55%

2.79–3.11

FLA @ ANA

final 3–2

ANA 54%

3.03–3.26

CGY @ SEA

final 6–1

SEA 58%

2.66–3.13

VGK @ VAN

final 2–3

VGK 69%

3.66–2.47

Matchup	Status	The call	Expected goals	xG so far
CHI @ BUF	final 4–3	BUF 72%	2.55–3.98	—
OTT @ TOR	final 2–3	OTT 56%	3.18–2.86	—
WSH @ TBL	final 3–1	TBL 63%	2.87–3.68	—
CAR @ PHI	final 2–3	CAR 53%	2.90–2.75	—
MTL @ PIT	final 6–5	PIT 56%	3.14–3.49	—
UTA @ CBJ	final 1–4	CBJ 52%	3.03–3.13	—
SEA @ EDM	final 3–1	EDM 59%	2.89–3.46	—
NJD @ NYI	final 6–0	NYI 56%	2.72–3.10	—
DAL @ NSH	final 2–1	NSH 51%	2.99–3.06	—
BOS @ MIN	final 4–1	MIN 62%	2.63–3.39	—
STL @ COL	final 6–1	COL 68%	2.58–3.71	—
CGY @ VAN	final 4–1	CGY 52%	3.16–3.01	—
LAK @ SJS	final 5–4	LAK 52%	2.99–2.89	—

Matchup

Status

The call

Expected goals

CHI @ BUF

final 4–3

BUF 72%

2.55–3.98

OTT @ TOR

final 2–3

OTT 56%

3.18–2.86

WSH @ TBL

final 3–1

TBL 63%

2.87–3.68

CAR @ PHI

final 2–3

CAR 53%

2.90–2.75

MTL @ PIT

final 6–5

PIT 56%

3.14–3.49

UTA @ CBJ

final 1–4

CBJ 52%

3.03–3.13

SEA @ EDM

final 3–1

EDM 59%

2.89–3.46

NJD @ NYI

final 6–0

NYI 56%

2.72–3.10

DAL @ NSH

final 2–1

NSH 51%

2.99–3.06

BOS @ MIN

final 4–1

MIN 62%

2.63–3.39

STL @ COL

final 6–1

COL 68%

2.58–3.71

CGY @ VAN

final 4–1

CGY 52%

3.16–3.01

LAK @ SJS

final 5–4

LAK 52%

2.99–2.89

Matchup	Status	The call	Expected goals	xG so far
NYR @ DET	final 0–2	DET 56%	2.79–3.14	—
WSH @ CAR	final 2–5	CAR 61%	2.82–3.51	—
BOS @ WPG	final 3–4	WPG 51%	2.96–3.00	—
STL @ DAL	final 0–4	DAL 56%	2.84–3.22	—
ANA @ VGK	final 3–4	VGK 63%	2.79–3.58	—

Matchup

Status

The call

Expected goals

NYR @ DET

final 0–2

DET 56%

2.79–3.14

WSH @ CAR

final 2–5

CAR 61%

2.82–3.51

BOS @ WPG

final 3–4

WPG 51%

2.96–3.00

STL @ DAL

final 0–4

DAL 56%

2.84–3.22

ANA @ VGK

final 3–4

VGK 63%

2.79–3.58

Matchup	Status	The call	Expected goals	xG so far
PHI @ NJD	final 3–2	NJD 58%	2.64–3.14	—
TBL @ NYR	final 5–1	TBL 53%	3.16–3.00	—
BUF @ CBJ	final 6–3	CBJ 52%	3.20–3.31	—
MIN @ NSH	final 1–3	MIN 54%	3.36–3.08	—
SEA @ CGY	final 1–6	CGY 52%	2.93–3.03	—
CHI @ UTA	final 6–0	UTA 70%	2.63–3.92	—
EDM @ VAN	final 7–9	EDM 61%	3.61–2.91	—
FLA @ SJS	final 4–3	FLA 52%	3.18–3.05	—

Matchup

Status

The call

Expected goals

PHI @ NJD

final 3–2

NJD 58%

2.64–3.14

TBL @ NYR

final 5–1

TBL 53%

3.16–3.00

BUF @ CBJ

final 6–3

CBJ 52%

3.20–3.31

MIN @ NSH

final 1–3

MIN 54%

3.36–3.08

SEA @ CGY

final 1–6

CGY 52%

2.93–3.03

CHI @ UTA

final 6–0

UTA 70%

2.63–3.92

EDM @ VAN

final 7–9

EDM 61%

3.61–2.91

FLA @ SJS

final 4–3

FLA 52%

3.18–3.05

Matchup	Status	The call	Expected goals	xG so far
PIT @ PHI	final 0–7	PIT 51%	3.18–3.12	—
NYI @ TOR	final 2–1	NYI 52%	3.15–3.05	—
LAK @ COL	final 8–4	COL 64%	2.55–3.41	—

Matchup

Status

The call

Expected goals

PIT @ PHI

final 0–7

PIT 51%

3.18–3.12

NYI @ TOR

final 2–1

NYI 52%

3.15–3.05

LAK @ COL

final 8–4

COL 64%

2.55–3.41

Click a matchup for its page — an upcoming game shows the predicted shot map and breakdown; a finished game opens on what happened, next to the pregame call. Every slate the engine has ever scored is browsable from the date selector. Or build any matchup in the lab — pick the teams, drag the rest sliders, and score it with the same engine.

Last night in xG

Sunday, November 8, 2026 · 6 games · Save the image

expected goals goal empty-net goal big number = final · away on the left

overtime

Each column is a team's expected goals and each puck one of its goals, on one scale for the whole night, so a stack taller than its column finished above its chances. An empty-net goal is an outlined puck (its attempts are not in xG); the shootout winner's credited goal gets no puck. The big number is the official final.

Season accuracy tracker

Log-loss (lower is better) over 278 completed games this season, every prediction scored as it was issued. This is the public, unfalsifiable record — the append-only live file means we cannot re-grade a past call.

Engine	log-loss	accuracy	games
Logistic (challenger)	0.643	62.9%	278
Poisson (shipped)	0.647	64.0%	278
Elo (baseline)	0.653	59.7%	278
Home-rate (floor)	0.685	57.2%	278

The shipped engine is Poisson. Its backtest twin, a plain Logistic regression on the same ratings, edges it on winner log-loss by ~0.003 — but only the generative Poisson produces the expected-goals score grid needed to price totals and puck lines, so it stays the headline. Both beat Elo and the home-rate floor. Full walk-forward methodology in how the engine works.

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Season accuracy tracker