xJawn NHL expected goals

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STL 1 – 2 DAL

St. Louis Blues at Dallas Stars

Final · Sep 21, 2026
2026-27 · preseason

Exhibition game. Split squads and tryouts, an audition rather than a game plan, and one game of anything is noise. None of it feeds the site's ratings, season tables or game predictions — preseason is kept out of every model here by construction.

On the ice
Adjusts with rink filters

Strength and score are read from STL's side, the same minutes at both ends: PP = STL power play · PK = DAL power play · Leading = STL ahead · ST = each club's own power play.

STL attacks◀ all strengths
DAL attacksall strengths ▶
× goal• on net ◦ missed· blocked hover any attempt for the shooter, its xG and everything the model saw
How to read this map

One rink, both teams: STL attacks the left net, DAL the right. Every attempt is a Gaussian bump of height = its model xG. The controls switch the surface (xG heatmap ↔ vs league) and the markers; vs league compares this game against a typical NHL team-game under the same filter (2026-27 regular season, 283 games), so a 5v5 view is measured against league 5v5.

A strength or score filter is read from STL's side and mirrored for DAL: “STL PP” shows STL's power-play attempts on the left and DAL's shorthanded attempts on the right — the same minutes of the game at both ends. Empty-net attempts are excluded unless you include them. The Player control narrows the map and the rows beneath it to the attempts by either club while one player was on the ice (for a goalie, while he was in net); his own attempts wear a blue ring. vs league switches off while a player is picked — the league baseline is a whole team-game, which one player's slice is not. Hover any attempt for the shooter, the result, its xG, and the inputs behind it: clock, strength, score, shot type, distance, angle, handedness, rush/rebound, what happened just before, and the goalie or the blocker.

What each side produced

all strengths · this game
STL DAL
bars share a scale within each row · the longer bar is the row's leader
Goalson the map
1 2
Expected goals
3.83 3.99
xG%share of xG
49% 51%
High-dangerattempts ≥ 0.20 xG
5 4
Shots on goal
31 27
Attempts
62 46
xG by period · whole game 1st1.1–1.32nd2.0–1.43rd0.7–1.3

The Stars beat the Blues 2–1 at home in a game the chances called about even, STL 3.8 to DAL 4.0 in expected goals. The Blues power play made 1.6 xG on 18 attempts.

Counts come from the shot table behind the map: empty-net attempts and the shootout are excluded, so the goals here can trail the official final by an empty-netter or the shootout's deciding goal. Same numbers as the post-game cards.

As the game went

all situations · this game
cumulative STL − DAL xG · bands = power plays · lines = goals
1ST2ND3RD+0.5−0.5+1−1+1.5−1.5STL AHEAD ▲DAL AHEAD ▼
How to read this

One line: cumulative STL minus DAL expected goals. Above zero STL is ahead on chances, below zero DAL is. Shaded bands are power plays in the side's colour; vertical lines are goals.

Goals

this game
xG = the chance, before it went in
TeamScorerPeriodTimexG
STLJonatan Berggren 3rd15:22 0.30
DALThomas Harley 1st15:15 0.02
DALNils Lundkvist 3rd5:57 0.17
Who

Skaters

all · whole game · this game
on-ice xG for and against, his own attempts, the net
strength
period
sort
How to read this

Every skater: on-ice xG against to the left of zero, for to the right, his own attempts as the solid bar, a hash at the net. The slim track under the name is ice time. The chart opens sorted by net, best first; pick another key to re-order it, and click the same key again to flip it. A name opens the player's page. Pick a period and every bar re-lays for that period alone on the same scale as the whole game, so the three periods add up to it; a skater who did not play in it fades to the bottom.

STL
against for own net ice time
0.50.5111.51.5222.52.5330Jimmy SnuggerudF19:48+1.92Jonatan BerggrenF14:40+1.73Robert ThomasF22:10+1.71Mason McTavishF14:48+1.61Philip BrobergD27:09+1.40Dylan HollowayF16:53+0.48Zach DeanF11:53-0.27Adam JiricekD21:01-0.37Colin RalphD13:21-0.40Dylan PetersonF12:21-0.44Oskar SundqvistF12:03-0.45Logan MaillouxD22:46-0.60Otto StenbergF12:01-0.74Arseni KoromyslovD15:18-0.85Quinton BurnsD16:34-0.92Nathan WalkerF11:49-0.94Aleksanteri KaskimakiF14:41-1.06Dillon DubeF14:09-1.20
0.50.5110Jonatan BerggrenF11:36+0.59Jimmy SnuggerudF14:24+0.29Adam JiricekD13:18+0.23Dylan HollowayF14:05+0.18Philip BrobergD18:23+0.16Robert ThomasF16:33+0.08Otto StenbergF8:10+0.06Mason McTavishF9:29-0.02Logan MaillouxD17:41-0.24Zach DeanF10:11-0.28Quinton BurnsD11:51-0.37Colin RalphD13:17-0.40Dylan PetersonF11:34-0.44Dillon DubeF9:24-0.46Oskar SundqvistF9:19-0.47Aleksanteri KaskimakiF8:20-0.58Arseni KoromyslovD13:55-0.59Nathan WalkerF9:05-0.77
0.50.5111.51.50Philip BrobergD4:13+1.63Robert ThomasF4:04+1.63Jimmy SnuggerudF4:00+1.63Mason McTavishF3:59+1.63Jonatan BerggrenF2:59+1.14Dylan HollowayF1:22+0.30Adam JiricekD1:46+0.23Aleksanteri KaskimakiF1:59+0.20Zach DeanF1:42+0.01Logan MaillouxD1:39+0.01Dillon DubeF1:04+0.01Dylan PetersonF0:47+0.00Nathan WalkerF0:46+0.00Quinton BurnsD0:46+0.00Oskar SundqvistF0:45+0.00Arseni KoromyslovD0:29+0.00
0.250.250.50.50.750.75110Oskar SundqvistF1:54+0.03Robert ThomasF0:13+0.00Dylan HollowayF0:06+0.00Jimmy SnuggerudF0:04+0.00Colin RalphD0:04+0.00Nathan WalkerF1:58-0.17Arseni KoromyslovD0:49-0.26Logan MaillouxD3:21-0.37Philip BrobergD3:13-0.38Quinton BurnsD3:57-0.54Aleksanteri KaskimakiF4:17-0.69Dillon DubeF3:36-0.76Otto StenbergF3:51-0.79Adam JiricekD4:37-0.82
DAL
against for own net ice time
0.50.5111.51.5222.52.50Jason RobertsonF18:30+1.49Roope HintzF17:21+0.74Mikko RantanenF19:33+0.71Thomas HarleyD23:57+0.52Wyatt JohnstonF20:18+0.48Emil HemmingF15:42+0.43Dylan HryckowianF13:52+0.35Justin HryckowianF19:48+0.34Matthew SeminoffF13:56+0.34Jack AndersonD15:43+0.21Kyle BurroughsD15:06+0.18Cameron HughesF0:22+0.00Ayrton MartinoF13:02-0.07Aram MinnetianD18:03-0.09Artem ShlaineF13:57-0.21Ellis RickwoodF13:13-0.40Nils LundkvistD19:53-0.70Trey TaylorD19:44-0.95
0.50.5110Jason RobertsonF12:01+0.63Jack AndersonD14:11+0.53Matthew SeminoffF12:40+0.53Roope HintzF11:04+0.53Trey TaylorD15:14+0.38Kyle BurroughsD13:52+0.37Aram MinnetianD16:13+0.20Artem ShlaineF10:00+0.19Dylan HryckowianF10:29+0.12Justin HryckowianF13:44+0.07Emil HemmingF12:19+0.01Wyatt JohnstonF12:51+0.00Cameron HughesF0:22+0.00Ayrton MartinoF12:53-0.07Ellis RickwoodF10:52-0.08Nils LundkvistD14:28-0.08Thomas HarleyD14:30-0.13Mikko RantanenF12:52-0.15
0.50.5110Thomas HarleyD5:59+0.97Mikko RantanenF5:56+0.97Jason RobertsonF5:54+0.97Wyatt JohnstonF4:48+0.77Justin HryckowianF3:50+0.68Roope HintzF4:01+0.51Emil HemmingF3:05+0.42Nils LundkvistD2:00+0.23Artem ShlaineF1:55+0.23Dylan HryckowianF1:55+0.23Ayrton MartinoF0:09+0.00Ellis RickwoodF0:09+0.00Matthew SeminoffF0:07+0.00Kyle BurroughsD0:06+0.00Trey TaylorD0:06+0.00
0.50.5111.51.50Dylan HryckowianF1:23+0.00Emil HemmingF0:18+0.00Matthew SeminoffF0:34-0.19Kyle BurroughsD0:33-0.19Aram MinnetianD1:50-0.29Roope HintzF1:36-0.30Wyatt JohnstonF1:54-0.30Thomas HarleyD2:38-0.31Ellis RickwoodF2:07-0.32Jack AndersonD1:32-0.32Justin HryckowianF1:29-0.41Artem ShlaineF2:02-0.62Nils LundkvistD2:35-0.84Trey TaylorD3:49-1.33

Lines & pairs

all · whole game · this game
most-used units · when they played · on-ice xG lines are by strength · 5v5 shown
strength
period
sort
How to read this

The units that actually played together most at the chosen strength — forward lines and defence pairs at 5v5, the whole group on the ice on the power play or the kill — each with when it was on the ice at that strength across the game clock (period and power-play bands behind the strip) and on-ice xG against / for while the whole unit was out, at that strength only. Sorted by time together; pick another key to re-order, and a name opens the player's page. Pick a period and the strip veils the rest of the game while the bars re-lay for that period alone, on the whole game's scale.

STL
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF
DAL
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF

Matchups

5v5 · this game
every skater against every skater, goalies first · hover a cell
order
STL won the chances DAL won them full colour = a margin of 0.75 xG or more taller = more time together (full height at 12:00) on together, dead even never on together G = goalie: his row or column is each skater against the whole other team
DeSmithRantanenJohnstonHryckowianMartinoHemmingRickwoodHintzRobertsonSeminoffHughesShlaineHryckowianMinnetianAndersonLundkvistHarleyBurroughsTaylorGL1L2L3L4D1D2D3GL1L2L3L4D1D2D3HoferRomanovThomasHollowaySnuggerudSundqvistWalkerPetersonBerggrenMcTavishStenbergDubeDeanKaskimakiBrobergMaillouxKoromyslovRalphBurnsJiricek
How to read this

Rows are STL's skaters, columns DAL's, grouped the way they played: forward lines (L1 = the line that played together most), then defence pairs. Each cell covers the five-on-five time those two players shared the ice. Its colour is the club that out-chanced the other in that time — expected goals for minus against — and the stronger the colour, the bigger the margin. Each cell is also raised: the taller the block, the longer the two shared the ice, up to full height at 12:00 of five-on-five time. A grey cell means they met and it came out even; an open, flat one means they never met at five-on-five.

The first row and column are the goalies. A goalie is in net for every five-on-five second, so a skater's cell against the other side's goalie is all of that skater's five-on-five time against that team — the rest of his row or column added up — and the corner where the two goalies meet is the game's five-on-five. Those cells cover far more time than any pair, so they reach full colour sooner and stand at full height, a wall along each edge of the grid. A goalie change adds a second goalie row or column, each covering his own time.

Linemates share the ice, so a line against a line reads as a block. The margin is a total, not a rate: a long matchup has room to build a big gap and a thirty-second one does not — which is what the height is there to show: a tall, strong cell is the game's story; a short, strong one is a moment. Hover (or tap) any cell for the exact time together, the xG each way, attempts and goals. One game — a strong cell is what happened, not what would happen again.