xJawn NHL expected goals

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SEA 3 – 4 VAN

Seattle Kraken at Vancouver Canucks

Final · Sep 26, 2026
2026-27 · preseason

Exhibition game. Split squads and tryouts, an audition rather than a game plan, and one game of anything is noise. None of it feeds the site's ratings, season tables or game predictions — preseason is kept out of every model here by construction.

On the ice
Adjusts with rink filters

Strength and score are read from SEA's side, the same minutes at both ends: PP = SEA power play · PK = VAN power play · Leading = SEA ahead · ST = each club's own power play.

SEA attacks◀ all strengths
VAN attacksall strengths ▶
× goal• on net ◦ missed· blocked hover any attempt for the shooter, its xG and everything the model saw
How to read this map

One rink, both teams: SEA attacks the left net, VAN the right. Every attempt is a Gaussian bump of height = its model xG. The controls switch the surface (xG heatmap ↔ vs league) and the markers; vs league compares this game against a typical NHL team-game under the same filter (2026-27 regular season, 283 games), so a 5v5 view is measured against league 5v5.

A strength or score filter is read from SEA's side and mirrored for VAN: “SEA PP” shows SEA's power-play attempts on the left and VAN's shorthanded attempts on the right — the same minutes of the game at both ends. Empty-net attempts are excluded unless you include them. The Player control narrows the map and the rows beneath it to the attempts by either club while one player was on the ice (for a goalie, while he was in net); his own attempts wear a blue ring. vs league switches off while a player is picked — the league baseline is a whole team-game, which one player's slice is not. Hover any attempt for the shooter, the result, its xG, and the inputs behind it: clock, strength, score, shot type, distance, angle, handedness, rush/rebound, what happened just before, and the goalie or the blocker.

What each side produced

all strengths · this game
SEA VAN
bars share a scale within each row · the longer bar is the row's leader
Goalson the map
3 4
Expected goals
1.87 3.40
xG%share of xG
35% 65%
High-dangerattempts ≥ 0.20 xG
1 1
Shots on goal
28 30
Attempts
42 58
xG by period · whole game 1st0.4–0.62nd0.9–0.83rd0.5–2.0

The Canucks beat the Kraken 4–3 at home, and the chances agreed: VAN out-created SEA 3.4–1.9 in expected goals. The Canucks power play made 1.3 xG on 12 attempts.

Counts come from the shot table behind the map: empty-net attempts and the shootout are excluded, so the goals here can trail the official final by an empty-netter or the shootout's deciding goal. Same numbers as the post-game cards.

As the game went

all situations · this game
cumulative SEA − VAN xG · bands = power plays · lines = goals
1ST2ND3RD+0.5−0.5+1−1+1.5−1.5+2−2SEA AHEAD ▲VAN AHEAD ▼
How to read this

One line: cumulative SEA minus VAN expected goals. Above zero SEA is ahead on chances, below zero VAN is. Shaded bands are power plays in the side's colour; vertical lines are goals.

Goals

this game
xG = the chance, before it went in
TeamScorerPeriodTimexG
SEABrandon Montour 1st2:13 PP 0.04
SEABobby McMann 1st7:51 0.14
SEABerkly Catton 3rd1:29 0.22
VANBrock Boeser 1st11:15 PP 0.10
VANElias Pettersson 2nd2:31 0.17
VANZeev Buium 3rd11:05 PP 0.13
VANJake DeBrusk 3rd18:22 0.17
Who

Skaters

all · whole game · this game
on-ice xG for and against, his own attempts, the net
strength
period
sort
How to read this

Every skater: on-ice xG against to the left of zero, for to the right, his own attempts as the solid bar, a hash at the net. The slim track under the name is ice time. The chart opens sorted by net, best first; pick another key to re-order it, and click the same key again to flip it. A name opens the player's page. Pick a period and every bar re-lays for that period alone on the same scale as the whole game, so the three periods add up to it; a skater who did not play in it fades to the bottom.

SEA
against for own net ice time
0.50.5111.51.5220Berkly CattonF12:07+0.74Shane WrightF13:06+0.33Kaapo KakkoF13:08+0.27Brandon MontourD24:17+0.26Ryan WintertonF10:40+0.21Ryker EvansD19:43+0.16Matty BeniersF13:36+0.06Jared McCannF12:57+0.02Vince DunnD20:49-0.11Jacob MelansonF13:46-0.30Jordan EberleF18:33-0.44Bobby McMannF20:27-0.69Cale FleuryD15:57-0.82Chandler StephensonF20:22-0.88Adam LarssonD22:14-0.94Freddy GaudreauF14:33-1.21Oscar Fisker MolgaardF16:21-1.40Ryan LindgrenD17:49-1.83
0.50.5110Berkly CattonF10:33+0.78Shane WrightF11:24+0.38Brandon MontourD20:02+0.27Ryan WintertonF9:34+0.26Kaapo KakkoF11:31+0.23Ryker EvansD17:47+0.22Matty BeniersF11:40+0.02Jared McCannF10:39+0.02Adam LarssonD19:55-0.07Vince DunnD18:43-0.11Bobby McMannF14:59-0.17Chandler StephensonF15:09-0.35Jordan EberleF16:12-0.36Jacob MelansonF12:36-0.38Freddy GaudreauF12:39-0.52Cale FleuryD13:29-0.53Ryan LindgrenD13:02-0.66Oscar Fisker MolgaardF14:26-0.77
0.250.250Brandon MontourD1:25+0.04Matty BeniersF1:38+0.04Shane WrightF1:29+0.04Kaapo KakkoF1:22+0.04Berkly CattonF1:21+0.04Chandler StephensonF1:12+0.00Bobby McMannF1:11+0.00Vince DunnD1:08+0.00Jared McCannF1:04+0.00Jordan EberleF0:55+0.00
0.50.5110Jacob MelansonF1:10+0.09Matty BeniersF0:03+0.00Jared McCannF0:01+0.00Ryker EvansD1:28-0.05Brandon MontourD1:24-0.05Ryan WintertonF1:05-0.06Cale FleuryD2:28-0.30Chandler StephensonF3:03-0.53Bobby McMannF3:19-0.53Oscar Fisker MolgaardF1:43-0.63Freddy GaudreauF1:54-0.69Adam LarssonD2:19-0.87Ryan LindgrenD4:47-1.16
VAN
against for own net ice time
0.50.5111.51.5222.52.50Elias PetterssonF17:51+1.09Jake DeBruskF15:05+1.06Filip HronekD23:39+0.93Brock BoeserF17:15+0.91Marco RossiF15:51+0.90Linus KarlssonF17:30+0.72Max SassonF16:20+0.62Elias PetterssonD16:55+0.30Arshdeep BainsF11:24+0.23Drew O'ConnorF18:40+0.22Tom WillanderD20:01+0.22Paul CotterF10:39+0.16Jonathan LekkerimakiF12:40+0.15Luke SchennD16:31+0.15Jamie OleksiakD19:57+0.07Brendan GallagherF11:42+0.03Liam OhgrenF16:17+0.02Zeev BuiumD19:23-0.00
0.50.5110Max SassonF15:28+0.53Linus KarlssonF15:04+0.46Elias PetterssonD15:50+0.30Arshdeep BainsF10:00+0.27Paul CotterF10:06+0.20Drew O'ConnorF16:42+0.14Elias PetterssonF12:19+0.14Jake DeBruskF10:16+0.11Luke SchennD14:09+0.10Jamie OleksiakD18:26+0.07Brendan GallagherF11:05+0.03Tom WillanderD17:19+0.03Jonathan LekkerimakiF10:44-0.03Marco RossiF11:38-0.05Filip HronekD17:47-0.07Brock BoeserF12:38-0.12Liam OhgrenF12:43-0.16Zeev BuiumD16:56-0.19
0.50.5110Filip HronekD4:20+1.03Brock BoeserF4:24+1.03Marco RossiF4:13+0.95Jake DeBruskF4:05+0.95Elias PetterssonF4:21+0.95Linus KarlssonF1:46+0.27Tom WillanderD1:47+0.18Liam OhgrenF2:06+0.18Jonathan LekkerimakiF1:56+0.18Zeev BuiumD1:51+0.18Max SassonF0:02+0.08Brendan GallagherF0:04+0.00
0.250.250Elias PetterssonD1:05+0.00Tom WillanderD0:55+0.00Liam OhgrenF0:53+0.00Elias PetterssonF0:36+0.00Brendan GallagherF0:33+0.00Drew O'ConnorF1:07-0.00Jamie OleksiakD0:53-0.00Arshdeep BainsF1:24-0.04Filip HronekD0:33-0.04Paul CotterF0:33-0.04Luke SchennD1:40-0.04

Lines & pairs

all · whole game · this game
most-used units · when they played · on-ice xG lines are by strength · 5v5 shown
strength
period
sort
How to read this

The units that actually played together most at the chosen strength — forward lines and defence pairs at 5v5, the whole group on the ice on the power play or the kill — each with when it was on the ice at that strength across the game clock (period and power-play bands behind the strip) and on-ice xG against / for while the whole unit was out, at that strength only. Sorted by time together; pick another key to re-order, and a name opens the player's page. Pick a period and the strip veils the rest of the game while the bars re-lay for that period alone, on the whole game's scale.

SEA
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF
VAN
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF

Matchups

5v5 · this game
every skater against every skater, goalies first · hover a cell
order
SEA won the chances VAN won them full colour = a margin of 0.75 xG or more taller = more time together (full height at 12:00) on together, dead even never on together G = goalie: his row or column is each skater against the whole other team
LankinenKarlssonO'ConnorSassonBoeserRossiOhgrenDeBruskPetterssonLekkerimakiGallagherCotterBainsOleksiakWillanderHronekBuiumSchennPetterssonGL1L2L3L4D1D2D3GL1L2L3L4D1D2D3DaccordEberleStephensonMcMannGaudreauMelansonFisker MolgaardMcCannKakkoBeniersWintertonWrightCattonMontourEvansLarssonDunnLindgrenFleury
How to read this

Rows are SEA's skaters, columns VAN's, grouped the way they played: forward lines (L1 = the line that played together most), then defence pairs. Each cell covers the five-on-five time those two players shared the ice. Its colour is the club that out-chanced the other in that time — expected goals for minus against — and the stronger the colour, the bigger the margin. Each cell is also raised: the taller the block, the longer the two shared the ice, up to full height at 12:00 of five-on-five time. A grey cell means they met and it came out even; an open, flat one means they never met at five-on-five.

The first row and column are the goalies. A goalie is in net for every five-on-five second, so a skater's cell against the other side's goalie is all of that skater's five-on-five time against that team — the rest of his row or column added up — and the corner where the two goalies meet is the game's five-on-five. Those cells cover far more time than any pair, so they reach full colour sooner and stand at full height, a wall along each edge of the grid. A goalie change adds a second goalie row or column, each covering his own time.

Linemates share the ice, so a line against a line reads as a block. The margin is a total, not a rate: a long matchup has room to build a big gap and a thirty-second one does not — which is what the height is there to show: a tall, strong cell is the game's story; a short, strong one is a moment. Hover (or tap) any cell for the exact time together, the xG each way, attempts and goals. One game — a strong cell is what happened, not what would happen again.