xJawn NHL expected goals

← Preseason

Save a card: Summary · Full card · Game flow · MTL skaters · OTT skaters · MTL lines · OTT lines · Matchups
Today's puzzle Remember Some Guys — name the skater from the shape of his career. Three clues, one guess a day. Play →
Final · Sep 26, 2026
2026-27 · preseason

Exhibition game. Split squads and tryouts, an audition rather than a game plan, and one game of anything is noise. None of it feeds the site's ratings, season tables or game predictions — preseason is kept out of every model here by construction.

On the ice
Adjusts with rink filters

Strength and score are read from MTL's side, the same minutes at both ends: PP = MTL power play · PK = OTT power play · Leading = MTL ahead · ST = each club's own power play.

MTL attacks◀ all strengths
OTT attacksall strengths ▶
× goal• on net ◦ missed· blocked hover any attempt for the shooter, its xG and everything the model saw
How to read this map

One rink, both teams: MTL attacks the left net, OTT the right. Every attempt is a Gaussian bump of height = its model xG. The controls switch the surface (xG heatmap ↔ vs league) and the markers; vs league compares this game against a typical NHL team-game under the same filter (2026-27 regular season, 283 games), so a 5v5 view is measured against league 5v5.

A strength or score filter is read from MTL's side and mirrored for OTT: “MTL PP” shows MTL's power-play attempts on the left and OTT's shorthanded attempts on the right — the same minutes of the game at both ends. Empty-net attempts are excluded unless you include them. The Player control narrows the map and the rows beneath it to the attempts by either club while one player was on the ice (for a goalie, while he was in net); his own attempts wear a blue ring. vs league switches off while a player is picked — the league baseline is a whole team-game, which one player's slice is not. Hover any attempt for the shooter, the result, its xG, and the inputs behind it: clock, strength, score, shot type, distance, angle, handedness, rush/rebound, what happened just before, and the goalie or the blocker.

What each side produced

all strengths · this game
MTL OTT
bars share a scale within each row · the longer bar is the row's leader
Goalson the map
3 4
Expected goals
1.67 2.84
xG%share of xG
37% 63%
High-dangerattempts ≥ 0.20 xG
1 0
Shots on goal
23 26
Attempts
36 51
xG by period · whole game 1st0.4–0.62nd0.4–1.23rd0.8–1.1

The Senators beat the Canadiens 4–3 at home, and the chances agreed: OTT out-created MTL 2.8–1.7 in expected goals. The Senators power play made 1.8 xG on 23 attempts.

Counts come from the shot table behind the map: empty-net attempts and the shootout are excluded, so the goals here can trail the official final by an empty-netter or the shootout's deciding goal. Same numbers as the post-game cards.

As the game went

all situations · this game
cumulative MTL − OTT xG · bands = power plays · lines = goals
1ST2ND3RD+0.5−0.5+1−1+1.5−1.5+2−2MTL AHEAD ▲OTT AHEAD ▼
How to read this

One line: cumulative MTL minus OTT expected goals. Above zero MTL is ahead on chances, below zero OTT is. Shaded bands are power plays in the side's colour; vertical lines are goals.

Goals

this game
xG = the chance, before it went in
TeamScorerPeriodTimexG
MTLBrett Berard 1st3:49 0.05
MTLAlex Belzile 3rd5:19 0.17
MTLSasha Pastujov 3rd7:05 0.13
OTTClaude Giroux 1st9:16 PP 0.05
OTTDrake Batherson 2nd10:31 PP 0.13
OTTCarter Yakemchuk 2nd11:12 PP 0.13
OTTWilliam Eklund 3rd10:57 PP 0.19
Who

Skaters

all · whole game · this game
on-ice xG for and against, his own attempts, the net
strength
period
sort
How to read this

Every skater: on-ice xG against to the left of zero, for to the right, his own attempts as the solid bar, a hash at the net. The slim track under the name is ice time. The chart opens sorted by net, best first; pick another key to re-order it, and click the same key again to flip it. A name opens the player's page. Pick a period and every bar re-lays for that period alone on the same scale as the whole game, so the three periods add up to it; a skater who did not play in it fades to the bottom.

MTL
against for own net ice time
0.50.5111.51.50Sasha PastujovF14:46+0.65Filip MesarF8:01+0.49Jared DavidsonF11:32+0.23Dillan BentleyF7:51+0.22Hunter McKownF16:14+0.04Samuel PoulinF7:12-0.09Brett BerardF14:19-0.13Laurent DauphinF17:00-0.19Reilly WalshD14:10-0.21Alex BelzileF15:36-0.23David ReinbacherD19:09-0.25Owen ProtzD15:21-0.43Adam EngstromD23:54-0.50Jayden StrubleD20:50-0.54Oliver KapanenF20:18-0.61Zachary BolducF19:57-0.75Arber XhekajD18:56-0.81Kirby DachF21:21-0.98
0.250.250.50.50.750.750Sasha PastujovF9:17+0.47Filip MesarF5:55+0.30Arber XhekajD13:40+0.24Dillan BentleyF7:51+0.22Jayden StrubleD14:21+0.16Laurent DauphinF11:48+0.04Jared DavidsonF9:35+0.03Adam EngstromD10:43-0.01Brett BerardF11:36-0.04Samuel PoulinF7:12-0.09Owen ProtzD13:23-0.11David ReinbacherD11:08-0.13Alex BelzileF11:00-0.15Zachary BolducF9:24-0.15Hunter McKownF13:34-0.16Oliver KapanenF8:03-0.20Reilly WalshD12:59-0.21Kirby DachF9:21-0.29
0.250.250Laurent DauphinF1:58+0.23Hunter McKownF2:10+0.20David ReinbacherD1:44+0.20Jared DavidsonF1:43+0.20Filip MesarF1:42+0.20Oliver KapanenF4:09+0.18Adam EngstromD4:16+0.18Zachary BolducF4:06+0.18Sasha PastujovF4:02+0.18Kirby DachF3:51+0.18Jayden StrubleD0:10+0.00Alex BelzileF0:09+0.00
0.50.5110Reilly WalshD0:20+0.00Brett BerardF1:45-0.09Alex BelzileF3:20-0.23Owen ProtzD1:52-0.32Laurent DauphinF1:31-0.46David ReinbacherD4:48-0.50Adam EngstromD6:01-0.76Zachary BolducF3:28-0.76Oliver KapanenF4:55-0.83Jayden StrubleD4:33-0.93Kirby DachF5:41-0.95Arber XhekajD4:09-1.03
OTT
against for own net ice time
0.50.5111.51.5220Drake BathersonF17:40+1.62William EklundF17:48+1.38Tim StützleF21:18+1.38Dylan CozensF21:06+1.03Carter YakemchukD18:39+0.96Thomas ChabotD25:10+0.52Jake SandersonD13:22+0.33Andre BurakovskyF11:36+0.26Claude GirouxF17:42+0.15Eskild Bakke OlsenF8:53+0.07Fabian ZetterlundF12:42+0.07Hayden HodgsonF9:55+0.07Stephen HallidayF13:12-0.00Michael AmadioF15:07-0.13Jordan SpenceD20:11-0.16Hoyt StanleyD13:48-0.19Nick CousinsF11:29-0.27Tyler KlevenD20:33-0.70
0.250.250.50.50.750.750Thomas ChabotD15:53+0.61Drake BathersonF7:56+0.20Tim StützleF9:24+0.17William EklundF9:30+0.16Jordan SpenceD14:22+0.14Eskild Bakke OlsenF8:53+0.07Hayden HodgsonF9:55+0.07Carter YakemchukD12:55+0.01Claude GirouxF9:46+0.00Andre BurakovskyF9:26-0.00Michael AmadioF10:30-0.02Stephen HallidayF10:00-0.02Nick CousinsF9:24-0.12Jake SandersonD7:31-0.12Dylan CozensF10:07-0.14Hoyt StanleyD12:27-0.19Fabian ZetterlundF9:30-0.19Tyler KlevenD13:32-0.49
0.50.5111.51.50Tim StützleF7:50+1.50Drake BathersonF7:43+1.50Dylan CozensF7:17+1.42William EklundF6:40+1.29Carter YakemchukD4:06+1.10Jake SandersonD4:31+0.50Claude GirouxF3:58+0.47Thomas ChabotD3:31+0.42Fabian ZetterlundF3:05+0.26Andre BurakovskyF2:03+0.26Stephen HallidayF1:52+0.00Jordan SpenceD1:03+0.00
0.250.250.50.50Hoyt StanleyD1:07+0.00Drake BathersonF0:09+0.00Jake SandersonD1:20-0.05William EklundF1:03-0.07Tim StützleF2:38-0.12Michael AmadioF2:28-0.12Nick CousinsF1:19-0.15Claude GirouxF2:29-0.15Dylan CozensF1:49-0.18Jordan SpenceD2:46-0.22Tyler KlevenD4:34-0.23Thomas ChabotD2:18-0.26

Lines & pairs

all · whole game · this game
most-used units · when they played · on-ice xG lines are by strength · 5v5 shown
strength
period
sort
How to read this

The units that actually played together most at the chosen strength — forward lines and defence pairs at 5v5, the whole group on the ice on the power play or the kill — each with when it was on the ice at that strength across the game clock (period and power-play bands behind the strip) and on-ice xG against / for while the whole unit was out, at that strength only. Sorted by time together; pick another key to re-order, and a name opens the player's page. Pick a period and the strip veils the rest of the game while the bars re-lay for that period alone, on the whole game's scale.

MTL
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF
OTT
on ice power play penalty kill xGA xGF

Matchups

5v5 · this game
every skater against every skater, goalies first · hover a cell
order
MTL won the chances OTT won them full colour = a margin of 0.75 xG or more taller = more time together (full height at 12:00) on together, dead even never on together G = goalie: his row or column is each skater against the whole other team
UllmarkGirouxAmadioHallidayZetterlundStützleEklundBurakovskyBathersonCozensCousinsHodgsonBakke OlsenChabotSpenceKlevenYakemchukSandersonStanleyGL1L2L3L4D1D2D3GL1L2L3L4D1D2D3DobesBerardPastujovMcKownBelzileDauphinDavidsonDachBolducKapanenPoulinMesarBentleyStrubleXhekajWalshProtzEngstromReinbacher
How to read this

Rows are MTL's skaters, columns OTT's, grouped the way they played: forward lines (L1 = the line that played together most), then defence pairs. Each cell covers the five-on-five time those two players shared the ice. Its colour is the club that out-chanced the other in that time — expected goals for minus against — and the stronger the colour, the bigger the margin. Each cell is also raised: the taller the block, the longer the two shared the ice, up to full height at 12:00 of five-on-five time. A grey cell means they met and it came out even; an open, flat one means they never met at five-on-five.

The first row and column are the goalies. A goalie is in net for every five-on-five second, so a skater's cell against the other side's goalie is all of that skater's five-on-five time against that team — the rest of his row or column added up — and the corner where the two goalies meet is the game's five-on-five. Those cells cover far more time than any pair, so they reach full colour sooner and stand at full height, a wall along each edge of the grid. A goalie change adds a second goalie row or column, each covering his own time.

Linemates share the ice, so a line against a line reads as a block. The margin is a total, not a rate: a long matchup has room to build a big gap and a thirty-second one does not — which is what the height is there to show: a tall, strong cell is the game's story; a short, strong one is a moment. Hover (or tap) any cell for the exact time together, the xG each way, attempts and goals. One game — a strong cell is what happened, not what would happen again.